The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 12. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.
Team DEF | Slot PPG Last 5 |
Wide PPG Last 5 |
Total PPG Last 5 |
Wide % Last 5 |
OFF Opponent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HST | 10.4 | 26.1 | 37.4 | 70% | NYJ |
BLT | 7.1 | 24.1 | 35.1 | 69% | CLV |
IND | 7 | 21.6 | 29.5 | 73% | TB |
MIN | 19.7 | 20.4 | 40.6 | 50% | SF |
NYJ | 13.6 | 19.9 | 34.6 | 57% | HST |
LAC | 7.5 | 19.5 | 27.1 | 72% | DEN |
TEN | 9.9 | 16.2 | 27.7 | 59% | NE |
LV | 7.1 | 16.1 | 24.4 | 66% | DAL |
MIA | 13.1 | 16 | 32 | 50% | CAR |
JAX | 7.8 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 61% | ATL |
NO | 11.7 | 15.7 | 28.8 | 54% | BUF |
ATL | 9.9 | 15.7 | 27.9 | 56% | JAX |
GB | 9.1 | 14.7 | 25.8 | 57% | LA |
TB | 4 | 14.3 | 20.1 | 71% | IND |
CHI | 11.9 | 14.2 | 30.4 | 47% | DET |
CIN | 9.7 | 14 | 24.5 | 57% | PIT |
DEN | 10.5 | 13.6 | 25 | 54% | LAC |
WAS | 9.9 | 13 | 25.7 | 51% | SEA |
LA | 7 | 12.7 | 21 | 60% | GB |
PHI | 8.2 | 12.5 | 21.4 | 59% | NYG |
KC | 12.4 | 12 | 26.1 | 46% | BYE |
DET | 12 | 11.4 | 25.9 | 44% | CHI |
DAL | 8.1 | 11.3 | 20.5 | 55% | LV |
CLV | 7.5 | 10.8 | 19.5 | 55% | BLT |
CAR | 8.2 | 10.8 | 19.2 | 56% | MIA |
SF | 9.9 | 10.6 | 23.2 | 46% | MIN |
PIT | 10.6 | 10.3 | 23.9 | 43% | CIN |
NE | 5.4 | 9.9 | 16.1 | 62% | TEN |
BUF | 7.9 | 8.7 | 17.4 | 50% | NO |
ARZ | 9.8 | 8.5 | 20 | 43% | BYE |
SEA | 9.1 | 8.3 | 20.2 | 41% | WAS |
NYG | 11.1 | 7.9 | 26.1 | 30% | PHI |
NFL AVG. | 9.6 | 14.3 | 25.7 | 55% |
*Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Matchup Upgrade: Brandon Aiyuk
Brandon Aiyuk has finally clawed himself out of the doghouse and the stat sheet is showing it as well. In Week 11, Aiyuk secured all 7 of his targets for 85 yards and a TD. This marked the 3rd game out of the last 4 that Aiyuk saw at least 7 targets. As his volume continues to rise, Aiyuk is starting to find the end zone as he caught his 2nd TD in his last 3 games. This is well overdue for fantasy managers who held onto Aiyuk as he only had 1 TD on the season prior to Week 9.
This week Aiyuk takes on the Vikings who have struggled to contain WRs this season. This includes allowing 20 fantasy points in .5 PPR to both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 11. This matchup along with Aiyuk’s increased usage should make him a solid WR2/3 this week.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: New York Jets
Matchup Upgrade: Brandin Cooks
In Week 11, Brandin Cooks had a disappointing outing for fantasy as he only had 2 receptions for 18 yards vs. the Titans. However, it came on a day where the Texans offense only threw for 107 yards in a 22-13 victory over the Titans. The weather in the Texans vs. Titans game was an issue as sloppy conditions didn’t help either team offensively. This bad outing shouldn’t stop us from starting Cooks as soon as this week. Prior to last week’s outing, Cooks has performed well in plus matchups this season going 5-132 vs. Jacksonville, 9-89 vs. the Colts, and 6-56 vs. the Dolphins.
This week Cooks should be able to put up points vs. a Jets DST that has allowed the 5th most points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. This includes allowing solid fantasy days to opposing #1 WRs Jaylen Waddle (16.6), Stefon Diggs (26.2), Michael Pittman (14.9) in each of the past 3 games. Only started in 70% of leagues, Cooks should be in all lineups on most fantasy teams in Week 12.
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup Upgrade: Tim Patrick
Since Jerry Jeudy’s return in Week 8, Tim Patrick has emerged as the clear #2 WRs in this offense ahead of Courtland Sutton. Patrick has seen 14 targets to 9 for Sutton which is 2nd on the team behind Jeudy over this 3-game stretch. You can make an argument that Tim Patrick has been the best WR for fantasy as he leads the team in receiving yards and fantasy points since Week 8. Patrick has been a bit up and down, but has yet to face a top 16 opponent in fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks since Jeudy returned.
This week the Broncos take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers secondary has been one of the best in football in 2021. However, over the past few weeks, injuries and tougher competition has exposed them on the outside. In the last 5 weeks, the Chargers have allowed the 6th most points to outside WRs. This includes double-digit fantasy points to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Justin Jefferson, and DeVonta Smith. Currently ranked as the WR46 according to FantasyPros ECR, Patrick can be viewed as a WR3 this week.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: New York Giants
Matchup Downgrade: DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence over the past 3 weeks. During this stretch Smith has averaged 4.3 receptions for 81 yards and 1 TD per game. All three of these performances have come vs. teams who are inside the top 17 in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. Overall this season Smith has been a bit boom or bust as all 4 of his TDs have come in the 5 games where he has 65 or more receiving yards. This has left Smith and his fantasy owners with a low floor as he has 4 games of 5 or fewer points in .5 PPR.
This week the Eagles take on the New York Giants. The Giants secondary led by James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson have hit their stride vs. outside WRs. Over the past 5 weeks, the Giants have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Mike Evans did find some success last week going for 6-73-1. Prior to that, you need to back to week 5 vs. Dallas to find a primary outside WR who had a big game vs. the Giants. Currently ranked as a WR2 according to FantasyPros ECR, Smith is more of a fringe WR3/4 in a tough matchup vs. the Giants.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchup Downgrade: Tee Higgins
Trying to figure out this Bengals passing attack behind Ja’Marr Chase has been a bit harder than expected. In .5 PPR scoring, neither Tyler Boyd nor Tee Higgins are top 40 WRs in PPG. Higgins since his return to the lineup back in Week 5, has only cracked double-digit fantasy points twice in 6 games. Even in those contests, Higgins has failed to go over 12 points in any game since week 2. A lot of this has to do with his lack of TDs as Higgins has failed to find the end zone since his return to the lineup.
In Week 12, Higgins has another tough matchup vs. a Steelers DST that has allowed the 6th fewest points to outside WRs. More importantly, the Steelers DST should be getting back all 3 of T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick after missing Week 11 vs. the Chargers. Currently ranked as the WR20 on the week according to FantasyPros ECR, Higgins is more of WR3/4 as he continues to fight for targets behind Chase.
*Joe Haden has been ruled out for this week’s matchup vs. the Bengals. Higgins is back on the WR3 map for Week 12.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Matchup Downgrade: Adam Thielen
The Vikings are once again a two-man band with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen dominating targets. Both Jefferson and Thielen sit inside the top 15 for WRs in PPG .5 PPR on the year. Thielen specifically has the nose for the end zone securing 8 TDs through the first 10 games and 4 TDs in his last 5. From a yardage standpoint, Thielen has only been over 65 yards in 5 of 10 games. The good news for fantasy managers is Thielen was able to find the end zone in 3 of the 5 games where he didn’t eclipse the 65-yard mark.
This week Thielen will face his first tough opponent vs. outside WRs in over 3 games. The San Francisco 49ers have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs over the past 5 weeks. During his hot stretch, Thielen has faced the Ravens (2nd), Chargers (6th), and the Packers (13th) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. Currently ranked as the WR16 on the week according to Fantasy ProsECR, Thielen should be viewed as more of a WR3 in a tough matchup vs. the 49ers.
Top 10 Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
Team | ROS Wide PPG Allowed |
---|---|
CLV | 17.9 |
SF | 16.8 |
JAX | 16.8 |
NYJ | 16.8 |
GB | 16.5 |
PIT | 16.3 |
HST | 16 |
DEN | 15.4 |
TB | 15.4 |
LA | 15.3 |
ROS Wide PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed out wide by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders