The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 8. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.
| Team DEF | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG* | Wide % | OFF Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 4.5 | 23.4 | 30.3 | 77% | MIN |
| MIA | 15 | 21.7 | 42.3 | 51% | BUF |
| ATL | 6.2 | 21 | 28.9 | 72% | CAR |
| KC | 6 | 20.7 | 29.2 | 71% | NYG |
| WSH | 14.5 | 20.4 | 44.2 | 46% | DEN |
| HOU | 6.1 | 20.1 | 28.2 | 71% | LAR |
| ARI | 4.9 | 20 | 27.8 | 72% | GB |
| IND | 7.9 | 20 | 28.7 | 70% | TEN |
| NO | 10.2 | 19.9 | 32 | 62% | TB |
| GB | 8.1 | 19.5 | 29.3 | 67% | ARI |
| CAR | 10 | 19.2 | 31.2 | 62% | ATL |
| DET | 10.5 | 19.1 | 32 | 60% | PHI |
| NE | 12.1 | 18.7 | 33.5 | 56% | LAC |
| BLT | 4.3 | 17.7 | 24.2 | 73% | BYE |
| PIT | 14.1 | 17.7 | 32.8 | 54% | CLE |
| CIN | 8.2 | 17.2 | 26.7 | 64% | NYJ |
| CLE | 11.8 | 16.7 | 31.1 | 54% | PIT |
| PHI | 9.9 | 16.5 | 29.3 | 56% | DET |
| TEN | 15.3 | 16.3 | 33.8 | 48% | IND |
| DEN | 11.4 | 16 | 27.6 | 58% | WSH |
| LAR | 10.8 | 15.8 | 30.4 | 52% | HOU |
| TB | 7.6 | 15.8 | 24.3 | 65% | NO |
| NYJ | 8.6 | 15.5 | 28 | 55% | CIN |
| JAX | 12.1 | 15.4 | 29.7 | 52% | SEA |
| CHI | 12.9 | 14.8 | 31.7 | 47% | SF |
| SEA | 13.5 | 13.9 | 30.3 | 46% | JAX |
| LV | 6 | 13.8 | 21 | 66% | BYE |
| NYG | 11.7 | 13.2 | 30.8 | 43% | KC |
| SF | 16.8 | 12.4 | 33.6 | 37% | CHI |
| LAC | 7.2 | 10.3 | 22 | 47% | NE |
| MIN | 9.4 | 10.1 | 22.2 | 45% | DAL |
| BUF | 8.4 | 10 | 19.9 | 50% | MIA |
* Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Carolina Panthers
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Matchup Upgrade: D.J. Moore
After a red-hot start to the season, Panthers WR D.J. Moore has cooled off a bit as of late. After Week 4, Moore was the WR4 in .5 PPR in Fantasy. Since then he has been the WR30 over the past three weeks. During this latest stretch Moore has average under 10 PPG and hasn’t topped 11 points .5 PPR in any contest. A lot of this has to do with the struggles of Sam Darnold who after a promising start has looked terrible since Week 4. The schedule hasn’t helped Moore much either as the Eagles (17th), Vikings (31st) and Giants (28th) have been really tough vs. outside WRs over the past 5 weeks.
This Week it’s hard to tell if Darnold will turn it around, but heading into Week 8 we know the matchup will be a lot better for Moore. The Falcons have allowed the 3rd most points to outside WRs. This includes big games to Terry McLaurin (6-123-2), Mike Evans (5-75-2) and DeVonta Smith (6-71-1). Currently priced as the WR7 on Draft Kings, Moore is worth buying up for in Week 8.
Team: New York Giants
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Upgrade: Kadarius Toney (Darius Slayton)
Heading into Monday night The Giants have a bunch of questions marks on who will be in the lineup vs. the Chiefs. Currently, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Kadarius Toney are either not practicing or are DNP as of Friday. It looks like Toney, Engram and Shepard have the best chances of suiting up after logging in LP on Friday. This brings us to Toney as if he is in, he should be in your lineups. Toney this season has looked explosive when on the field. Back in Week 5, he exposed the Dallas Cowboys for 10-189. The following week vs. the Rams Toney looked to be heading right back to a monster game catching 3-36 on just 6 snaps. Unfortunately like all great Giants WRs he got hurt.
This Week if Toney returns, he will get another top matchup vs. a Chiefs secondary that has allowed the 4th most points on the outside over the past 5 weeks. Notable WRs to have big games vs. KC include A.J. Brown (8-133-1), Devonta Smith (7-122) and Mike Williams (7-122-2). We recommend scooping up Darius Slayton and stashing him as well as if Toney doesn’t go, Slayton makes for a solid WR3 play this week.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Upgrade: A.J Brown
We are starting to see the tide turn once again for A.J. Brown who looks healthy and ready to go. After failing to top double digit fantasy points since Week 1, Brown has gone back to back weeks with at least 12 points in .5 PPR. This includes seeing 9 targets in each contest for a solid 7.5 receptions for 112 yards and .5 TD over this two game stretch.
Now with Julio already ruled out this week, look for Brown to capitalize again. The Colts have allowed the 7th most points out wide to WRs this season. Brown has been up and down vs. the Colts in his career, but with the Colts secondary struggling on the outside, Brown should be able to dominate. Notable #1 WRs Deebo Samuel (7-100-1), Brandin Cooks (8-89) and Marquise Brown (9-125-2) have all had big games vs. the Colts over the past few weeks. Currently as a top 10 option on DK, Brown is worth playing in DFS this week.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Matchup Downgrade: Marvin Jones
Heading into the bye week, Marvin Jones finally splashed again securing 7-100-1 vs. the Dolphins in London. This game was a welcome sign for Jones owners as he hit a little bit of a slump. After averaging 9.3 targets and over 13 PPG in .5 PPR the first 3 weeks, Jones only saw 4 targets turning them into 3.5 PPG in weeks 4 and 5. The loss of D.J. Chark would have made us think Jones is a solid ROS play, but instead the Jaguars struggled right after. The good news is with the Dolphins secondary dealing with injuries to their two top CBs, Jones capitalized for that big game. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come as Jones can be a valuable asset down the stretch in good matchups.
This week is not one of those good matchups as the Jaguars take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks this season have been tough vs. outside WRs holding them to the 7th fewest points per game over the past 5 weeks. This includes shutting down Diontae Johnson to 71 yards on 13 targets back in Week 5. Full disclosure Robert Woods did blow up against the Seahawks for 12-150, but outside of Woods most players have found their success on he inside including Deebo Samuel who caught 92 yards and 2 TDs playing on the inside.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: New York Jets
Matchup Downgrade: Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins has yet to match the production with his usage as he has seen a big upswing in targets. Last week Higgins saw 15 of targets turning them into 7-62. This production came against a solid Ravens DST that prior to that game vs the Bengals looked pretty good vs. outside WRs. The issue for Higgins for the most part in 2021 is the lack of pass volume and the dominance of Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals are currently tied for the 4th fewest drop-backs per game this season. This low pass volume has led to a lot of issues for consistency behind Chase.
This week shouldn’t project to be much different for the Bengals as they should be able to handle business vs. the Jets. The Jets will be starting backup Mike White in a game where Joe Mixon should be able to dominate on the ground. Higgins target share should give him a safe floor this week but seeing a monster game from him is unlikely. Over the past 5 weeks the Jets have allowed the 10th fewest points to outside WRs, making Higgins a WR4 this week.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Matchup Downgrade: Brandin Cooks
We can’t stress it enough how impressive Brandin Cooks has been this season. The Texans offense has been terrible, but Cooks keeps on rolling sitting as the WR23 in .5 PPR. Things haven’t been as great as of late. Cooks has failed to crack double digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. This of course has come against some tough DSTs. The Bills (32nd) and Patriots (13th) vs. outside WRs were clear fades for Cooks. However, last week’s dud was a big disappointment as the Cardinals allow the 8th most points to outside WRs. It sounds like the NFL might have caught up to Davis Mills as his production as been very inconsistent as of late.
This week the matchup for Cooks will not be easy as the Texans take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have allowed the 11th fewest points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. A lot of the has to do with Jalen Ramsey kicking back outside due to the injury of top perimeter CB Darius Williams. Cooks should see a lot of Ramsey this week, but he’s still a WR4 as the Texans will have to throw a lot due to game flow.
Top 10 Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
| Team | ROS Wide |
|---|---|
| LV | 18.5 |
| ARI | 18.1 |
| CAR | 18.1 |
| BUF | 18 |
| WSH | 17.9 |
| ATL | 17.9 |
| SEA | 17.9 |
| DAL | 17.9 |
| TEN | 17.7 |
| NYJ | 17.5 |
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
