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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 9. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.
| Team DEF | Slot PPG Last 5 |
Wide PPG Last 5 |
Total PPG Last 5* |
Wide % Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 13.3 | 22.2 | 39.7 | 56% |
| HST | 7.8 | 22.1 | 31.5 | 70% |
| IND | 7.4 | 21.9 | 30.1 | 73% |
| BLT | 3.8 | 21.1 | 26.9 | 78% |
| DAL | 6.3 | 21.1 | 29.2 | 72% |
| NE | 12.2 | 20.8 | 34.2 | 61% |
| TEN | 15.2 | 20.6 | 36.8 | 56% |
| NO | 14.6 | 20.4 | 37.2 | 55% |
| JAX | 9 | 20.3 | 30.8 | 66% |
| GB | 8.6 | 19.2 | 29.1 | 66% |
| CLV | 12.3 | 19.2 | 33.7 | 57% |
| WAS | 11.8 | 17.2 | 30.8 | 56% |
| LA | 9.3 | 16.9 | 28.2 | 60% |
| DET | 8 | 16.7 | 27.2 | 61% |
| CIN | 11.2 | 16.5 | 28.4 | 58% |
| ARZ | 7.3 | 16.4 | 25.8 | 63% |
| ATL | 6.4 | 16.4 | 24.2 | 68% |
| CAR | 9.9 | 16.2 | 27.8 | 58% |
| DEN | 12.9 | 16.1 | 29.5 | 54% |
| NYJ | 12.1 | 15.9 | 28.2 | 56% |
| LAC | 4.8 | 15.4 | 21.2 | 73% |
| LV | 4.7 | 15.4 | 20.4 | 75% |
| KC | 7.2 | 14.7 | 24.1 | 61% |
| MIN | 12.4 | 14.1 | 28.7 | 49% |
| PHI | 9.2 | 14 | 25.6 | 55% |
| TB | 3.9 | 13.3 | 17.8 | 75% |
| CHI | 15.5 | 13 | 34.4 | 38% |
| PIT | 13 | 12.9 | 27.7 | 47% |
| SF | 11.6 | 12 | 25.8 | 47% |
| BUF | 9 | 11 | 20.9 | 52% |
| SEA | 13.9 | 9.4 | 26.5 | 35% |
| NYG | 15.9 | 9.1 | 31.6 | 29% |
| NFL AVG. | 10 | 16.6 | 28.6 | 59% |
*Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Matchup Upgrade: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton is having a fine bounce back season after tearing his ACL back in 2020. Sutton has become slightly boom or bust as he currently has 3 games of 19 or more fantasy points and 5 games of under 10 points in .5 PPR. When evaluating Sutton’s season, a lot of his inconsistency can be contributed to the Broncos rough first half of the season for outside WRs. So far in 2021 the Broncos have faced the 9th toughest out wide schedule. This has made Sutton slightly unpredictable as his big games came against the Jaguars (9th), Steelers (28th) and Raiders (22nd) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs.
This week the Broncos take on the Dallas Cowboys who have allowed the 5th most points to outside WRs. This includes big games to Adam Thielen (6-78-1), Kadarius Toney (10-189) and D.J. Moore (8-113-2). With the return of Dak Prescott for the Cowboys there should be plenty of points to go around in this contest making Sutton a solid WR2 in Week 9.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Matchup Upgrade: Van Jefferson
The release of Desean Jackson has opened the door for Van Jefferson to now take on a full time role. Since Jackson was benched two weeks ago, Jefferson has run 71 routes to 72 for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. This bump in usage has led to more consistency as Jefferson has posted back to back games of double digit .5 PPR fantasy points for the first time this season.
This week the Rams get another solid matchup for outside WRs vs. the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have allowed the 7th most points over the past 5 weeks to perimeter WRs. This includes big games to Michael Pittman (10-86-2), Stefon Diggs (9-89-1) and Corey Davis 4-111-1). Even #2 outside WRs have had nice days vs. the Titans as Emmanuel Sanders (5-91) and Keelan Cole (3-92) both put-up double-digit fantasy points vs. Tennessee. Currently ranked as the WR34 according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Jefferson is a solid WR3 play in Week 9.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchup Upgrade: Emmanuel Sanders
Speaking of Emmanuel Sanders, coming off a dud Week 8 performance where he didn’t catch a pass, Sanders should bounce right back in Week 9. Prior to Week 9, Sanders hit double digit fantasy points in 4 straight games in .5 PPR. It was clear the Dolphins were taking away the deep passing game as Allen only attempts 4 passes of 20 plus yards completing just 1 on the day. This directly impacted Emmaunel Sanders as 3 of his 4 targets came on these throws and they failed to connect on any of these deep plays.
This week things should get easier down the field as the Bills take on the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed the 9th most points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. This includes a lot of big plays. This season the Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most pass plays of 20+ yards. Only started in 45% of ESPN leagues, Sanders makes for a solid play in Week 9.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Matchup Downgrade: Marvin Jones
After a red hot start to the season where Marvin Jones had at least 8 targets in the first 3 games, Jones has only hit that mark once since. This has led to very inconsistent play as he only hit 7 fantasy points in .5 PPR vs. the Dolphins in Week 6 over the past 4 games. The injury to D.J. Chark should have opened up more opportunities for Jones and Laviska Shenault. Instead, new slot WR Jamal Agnew has seen 22 targets to 23 for Jones and Shenault since the Chark injury. This has capped both players upside as the Jaguars have gone through the growing pains with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence.
The good news for the fantasy owners of Jones is his recent play should make it easier to sit him in Week 9 vs. the Buffalo Bills. The Bills over the past 5 weeks have allowed the 3rd fewest points to outside WRs. Notable WRs Tyreek Hill (7-63), Terry McLaurin (4-62) and Brandin Cooks (5-47) had slow days vs. Buffalo. Currently ranked as the WR30 according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Jones should be viewed as no better than a WR4 in Week 9.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Matchup Downgrade: Chase Claypool
Since the injury to Juju Smith Schuster, Chase Claypool has been a player on the rise from a usage standpoint. Claypool has been a full time player only running 6 less routes than Diontae Johnson in the almost 3 games without Juju. The issue for fantasy owners is the production hasn’t been there just yet. After that promising first game vs Denver where he went (5-130-1), Claypool has since laid to eggs going for (2-17) vs. Seattle and (4-45) vs. Cleveland. The Cleveland game was disappointing as the Browns have allowed the 11th most points to outside and were down top CB Denzel Ward.
This week the matchup isn’t good for Claypool as the Steelers take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears over the past 5 weeks have allowed the 6th fewest points to outside WRs. The Bears have allowed production to some of the best fantasy WRs including Deebo Samuel (6-171) and Mike Evans (6-76-3), but the pie has been thin overall. This makes Claypool a risky WR3 play in Week 9.
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup Downgrade: Mike Williams
Mike Williams was one of the hottest WRs in fantasy through the first 3 weeks of the year scoring 4 TDs and at least 18 .5 PPR points in every game. Since then Williams has struggled failing to crack 4 points in .5 PPR in 3 of 4 games. The tough thing about Williams is some of those bad games came against the Ravens (4th) and Patriots (6th) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Granted, both those defenses have been tough historically so it is easy to give him a pass.
This week Williams will have his toughest test of the season vs. an Eagles DST that has allowed the 3rd fewest points to outside WRs this season and the 8th fewest over the last 5 weeks. Notable WRs Mike Evans (2-27), D.J. Moore (5-42) and Ceedee Lamb (3-66) all failed to hit double digits vs. Philadelphia. Currently ranked as the WR14 on the week, Williams is best viewed as a WR3 in Week 9.
Top 10 Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
|
Team Offense |
ROS Wide PPG Allowed |
|---|---|
| BUF | 18 |
| LV | 17.6 |
| NYJ | 17.6 |
| TEN | 17.6 |
| ATL | 17.5 |
| SF | 17.4 |
| CAR | 17.4 |
| SEA | 17.3 |
| ARZ | 17.1 |
| BLT | 17.1 |
PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed Out Wide by the remaining opponents this season of that offense
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
