*Buy, Sell, Hold video was released by Anime Donkey prior to week 11*
The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key slot matchups for week 12. To keep up with the latest trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.
|Team DEF||Slot PPG
*Screen Passes are included in the total
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Slot % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Slot Matchup Upgrades
Team: Carolina Panthers
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
Matchup Upgrade: Robby Anderson
Cam Newton has provided a spark to the Panthers offense and we are starting to see more consistency for fantasy for the Carolina pass catchers. This includes Robby Anderson who has averaged 4.5 receptions for 33.5 yards and a score over the two games with Newton in the lineup. The production doesn’t jump out at you, but it came vs. the Cardinals (28th) and Washington Football Team (17th) in fantasy points allowed to WRs over the last 5 weeks. Each defense is also middle of the pack (15th and 16th) in fantasy points allowed to the slot. This is key for Anderson as 70% of his targets over the past 2 games and nearly 50% of his routes have come from the slot over this stretch.
This week the Panthers take on the Dolphins who have allowed the 5th most points to WRs and the 3rd most points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. Notable interior WRs Jamison Crowder (6-44-1), Cole Beasley (10-110) and Russel Gage (4-67-1) all had productive days vs. Miami. Currently ranked as the WR55 on the week according to FantasyPros ECR, Anderson could be an option as a WR3 this week.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchup Upgrade: Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd has been a disappointment this season as he has only cleared 50 yards 3 times all year. A lot of this has to do with the low pass volume as the Bengals have attempted the 8th fewest drop-backs on the season. The good news for Boyd and his fantasy owners is the pass volume has begun to go up. The Bengals have averaged the 12th most drop-backs over the past 5 weeks. This has been key for Boyd as his production with Tee Higgins in the lineup has begun to rise. In 2 of the last 3 games, Boyd has finished as a WR3 or better. Boyd had failed to do that in the prior 4 games with Higgins in the lineup.
This week the Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have allowed the 9th most points to the slot. Boyd himself has had a lot of success vs. the Steelers in his career. Over his last 4 full games vs. the Steelers, Boyd has averaged 10.5 PPG in .5 PPR. Boyd’s historical production along with the increase in pass volume should make Boyd as WR3 this week.
Team: Miami Dolphins
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Matchup Upgrade: Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle has emerged as the clear #1 WR with DeVante Parker out over the past few weeks. Since week 6, Waddle has averaged 9.5 targets, 6.8 receptions and 65 yards. This has resulted in a solid 11.9 PPG in .5 PPR over that span. The issue for Waddle is he hasn’t had a receiving TD since Week 6. Waddle and Jarvis Landry are the only WRs in the NFL with at least 35 targets over the past 5 weeks without a receiving TD over that stretch. This should normalize at some point as he continues to see nearly 10 targets a game.
This week the Dolphins take on the Carolina Panthers who on the surface look tough vs. slot WRs only allowing 8.2 PPG over the past 5 weeks. That puts the Panthers tied for 20th over that span. The Panthers however allow 43% of their WR production to the slot. This is tied for 8th in the NFL. Interior WRs to find success vs. the Panthers include K.J. Osborn (6-78-1), Dante Pettis (5-39-1) and Christian Kirk (7-58). This matchup should put Waddle back on the WR3 map for Week 12.
Slot Matchup Downgrades
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Downgrade: Chris Godwin
With Antonio Brown out of the lineup, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have emerge as top 5 WRs over the past 5 weeks. Godwin has been as steady as they come securing at least 6 receptions in 4 straight games. This increase in volume with Brown being out has coincided with a very soft slot schedule over that timeframe. Godwin has faced the Bears (6th), Saints (7th), Washington Football Team (15th) and Giants (8th) in fantasy points allowed to the slot.
Heading into Week 12 vs. the Colts, Godwin will face his toughest slot matchup since Week 4 vs. the New England Patriots. In that matchup vs. the Patriots, Godwin was held in check only securing 3-55 on 5 targets. The Colts have held down notable primary interior WRs Jaylen Waddle (3-33), Jamison Crowder (5-38) and Cole Beasley (4-23) this season. Godwin is still a start in season-long leagues, but he could be more of a fringe WR2 instead of his top 5 self over the past month or so.
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup Downgrade: Jerry Jeudy
Since his return to the lineup in Week 8, Jerry Jeudy has reestablished himself as the WR1 in this offense. Jeudy leads the Broncos in targets (21) and Receptions (16) and only trails Tim Patrick by 7 receiving yards over this timeframe. Even though Jeudy has become the WR1 in this offense he has seen most of his usage in the slot. 16 of his 21 targets have come from the inside over the past 3 games. The issue for Jeudy is his schedule has been brutal for slot WRs. The Washington Football (15th), Eagles (20th) and Cowboys (22nd) all have been at or below in fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.
In Week 12 things don’t get much easier as Jeudy will now have his toughest test yet vs. the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have surrendered the 8th fewest points to the slot led by top CB Chris Harris on the inside. This includes shutting down Jakobi Meyers (4-36) and eliminating Tyreek Hill (5-56) who sees 50% of his targets on the inside. Jeudy still offers some WR4 value as he continues to lead the team in targets, but his upside is capped in another tough matchup.
Top 10 Rest of Season Slot Schedule
|Team||ROS Slot PPG Allowed|
ROS Slot PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed to the slot by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders