The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key slot matchups for week 13. To keep up with the latest trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.

Team DEF Slot PPG
Last 5
Wide PPG
Last 5
Total PPG
Last 5
Slot %
Last 5
Opp OFF
MIN 18.5 18.1 37 50% DET
KC 13.3 9.7 24.7 54% DEN
GB 12.5 14.6 29.1 43% BYE
MIA 12.4 14.6 29.9 42% NYG
NYJ 12.4 18.1 31.8 39% PHI
DEN 12.3 14.4 27 45% KC
TEN 12.2 16.4 29.9 41% BYE
LA 12.2 14.2 27.8 44% JAX
NO 11.9 17.3 30.6 39% DAL
ARZ 11.8 8.5 22.2 53% CHI
CHI 11.2 8.1 22.8 49% ARZ
DAL 10.9 13.6 25.4 43% NO
SEA 10.8 8.7 22.9 47% SF
SF 10.7 11.9 24.9 43% SEA
NYG 10.6 8.4 25.1 42% MIA
ATL 10.5 14.5 27.9 38% TB
HST 10.2 20.9 31.9 32% IND
DET 10.1 7.3 18.3 55% MIN
CAR 9.6 9.9 20.1 48% BYE
LV 9.5 16.8 27.5 35% WAS
CIN 9.2 14 23.9 38% LAC
PIT 8.8 12.9 24.8 35% BLT
WAS 8.3 13.2 23.2 36% LV
CLV 8.3 10 19.9 42% BYE
BUF 8.2 8.5 18.2 45% NE
PHI 7.8 10.6 18.7 42% NYJ
BLT 7.6 17 28.4 27% PIT
JAX 7.4 15.3 24.7 30% LA
LAC 7.3 16.3 23.7 31% CIN
IND 5.9 19.7 26.5 22% HST
TB 5.5 18.4 25.4 22% ATL
NE 5.4 8.6 14.7 36% BUF
NFL AVG. 10.1 13.4 25.3 40%  

*Screen Passes are included in the total

Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks

Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks

Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks

Slot % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot over the past 5 weeks

Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week

 

Slot Matchup Upgrades

 

Team: Denver Broncos

Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup Upgrade: Jerry Jeudy

 

Since his return to the lineup back in Week 8, Jerry Jeudy has been very underwhelming for fantasy. In the past 4 games Jeudy has averaged 4.5 receptions for 45 yards and no scores. A couple of key factors have driven these down performances. First, is the Broncos are winning. Yes, winning hasn’t helped as positive game scripts have led to the Broncos attempting the 3rd fewest passes in the NFL during this time. Second, Jeudy has been regulated mostly to the slot which hasn’t been ideal because of his matchups. The Broncos have faced the Washington Football Team (23rd), Cowboys (12th), Eagles (26th) and the Chargers (29th) in fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.

This week the Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are on a 4 game winning streak and coming off the bye. Since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018 the Chiefs have averaged 38 points per game off the bye. This should lead to much better game flow for the Broncos pass catchers especially Jeudy. The Chiefs have allowed the 2nd most points to the slot over the past 5 weeks making him a solid start in Week 13.

 

Team: New York Giants

Opponent: Miami Dolphins

Matchup Upgrade: Sterling Shepard

 

As we are writing this article Sterling Shepard got in a limited practice on Thursday. All signs point to Shepard returning in Week 13, and if he does here are some reasons why he should be in your lineup. First, this is a big risk as Shepard has left 2 games this year already due to injury. However, if you are looking to make a push for the playoffs and are an underdog this week, Shepard has big time upside. In the 3 full games he has played this season, Shepard has averaged 8.7 receptions for 94 yards and .3 TDs. In these contests he averaged a ridiculous 11 targets per game. The competition was tough as well for Shepard as 2 of the 3 games came against strong pass defenses in the Rams and Broncos.

This week the Giants take on the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins this season have been very up and down but have been consistently beat by interior WRs. The Dolphins over the past 5 weeks have allowed the 4th most points to the slot. This is key for Shepard as he plays over 70% of his snaps and sees nearly 60% of his targets on the inside. This matchup along with the injury to Kadarius Toney should allow Shepard to see enough volume to be a rock solid WR3.

 

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

Matchup Upgrade: Darnell Mooney

 

Darnell Mooney has caught fire over the past 4 games. Since week 8, Mooney has averaged 4.8 receptions for 87 yards and has scored 2 TDs during this stretch. These numbers only get stronger over the past 2 games without Allen Robinson. Mooney has averaged 5 receptions for 122 yards and 1 score over the past two games without Robinson in the lineup. Mooney’s role without Robinson should get his fantasy managers excited as he is now used all over the formation. In each of the last two games Mooney has seen roughly 50% of his snaps and targets on the inside. This usage on the inside hasn’t stopped them from using him in the deep passing game as well. Mooney has seen 5 targets of 20 plus yards or more over the past 2 games which is tied for 3rd in the NFL.

This usage will be key this week as the Chicago Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have been tough vs. WRs over the past 5 weeks allowing the 7th fewest points overall. However, when you dive into the slot numbers the Cardinals have allowed the 10th most points on the inside over the past 5 weeks. This has led them to allow the 3rd highest rate (53%) of fantasy points to the slot over that span. This should allow Mooney to produce WR3 numbers again for Week 13.

 

Slot Matchup Downgrades

 

Team: Buffalo Bills

Opponent: New England Patriots

Matchup Downgrade: Cole Beasley

 

Cole Beasley has been quite up and down this season. A lot this inconsistency has been due to the emergence of Dawson Knox. In the 3 games where Knox missed or left early, Beasley has filled up the stat sheet. In those game Beasley averaged 8.3 receptions for 77 yards and 1 score. Since Knox returned in Week 10 things have fallen apart rather quickly for Beasley. Over the past 3 games with Knox, Beasley has averaged 3.7 receptions for 28 yards and no scores. This has rendered Beasley unusable even in PPR formats.

This week the Bills take on the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been the toughest defense on the inside over the past 5 weeks allowing just 5.4 PPG in .5 PPR on the inside. Beasley himself has struggled vs. the Patriots as in 2020 he only averaged 2.5 receptions for 20.5 yards in their 2 games last season. The recent downward trend of Beasley should make him easy to sit, but if you need a spot start, we suggest looking on waiver as he’s not a must hold for Week 13.

 

Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup Downgrade: Tyler Boyd

 

The disappointing season for Tyler Boyd continues. After a solid performance vs. the Raiders for PPR, Boyd laid a serious dud vs. the Steelers going for 2-13 in Week 12. This has been tough for fantasy managers because as soon as you think he might start to bounce back he lays another dud. We can sit here all day and talk about the Bengals low pass volume offense, but at this point Boyd is to tough to trust for fantasy.  This low floor of under 2 points in 2 of the last 3 games doesn’t justify Boyd’s ceiling as he has only been in double digits twice all season in .5 PPR.

This week the Bengals take on the Chargers. The Chargers have allowed the 4th fewest points to the slot over the past 5 weeks led by top CB Chris Harris. Notable primary inside WRs Jerry Jeudy (2-25) and Jakobi Meyers (4-36) have really struggled vs. the Chargers over that span. Boyd is a full fade and can be dropped if you need a spot start this week. Boyd is still rostered in 64% of yahoo leagues so if a player  like Sterling Shepard is on waivers we recommend scooping him up for Week 13 and beyond.

 

Team: New England Patriots

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

Matchup Downgrade: Jakobi Meyers

 

Jakobi Meyers quietly had one of his best games of the season in Week 12 going for 5-98. Meyers has been solid all season leading the Patriots in targets and receptions while only trailing Kendrick Bourne by 2 yards for the team lead in receiving yards. The biggest issue plaguing Meyers is his lack of TDs as he still only has 1 on the season. The good news for Meyers owners is he continues to get work in the red zone seeing the second most red zone targets (7) on the team over the past 4 games. This usage could help Meyers find the end zone a few more times down the stretch.

This week the Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills who have allowed 8th fewest fantasy points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. The Bills have been much better vs. outside WRs which has led them to allow 45% of their fantasy points to the slot over that span. However, the loss of top CB Tre’Davious White could change that and with how well the Bills are playing overall it’s best to fade Meyers in Week 13.

 

Top Rest of Season Slot Schedule

 

TEAM ROS Slot PPG Allowed
CHI 12.8
DET 12.8
PIT 12
MIA 11.8
GB 11.4
LA 11.2
LAC 11.1
MIN 10.9
SEA 10.9

ROS Slot PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed to the slot by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season

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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders

 

1 Comment
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Mike
Mike
1 year ago

What’s up man? Question is PPR. Please choose 1RB 1WR 1 TE and 1 FLEX from..

Najee and Eli Mitchell
McLaurin and Chase
Goedert and Logan Thomas
Thanks for your time man