The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key slot matchups for week 14. To keep up with the latest trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.
| Team DEF | Slot PPG Last 5 |
Wide PPG Last 5 |
Total PPG Last 5 |
Slot % Last 5 |
OFF Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16.3 | 16.5 | 33.2 | 49% | PIT |
| TEN | 13.9 | 13.1 | 28.7 | 49% | JAX |
| KC | 13.4 | 8.8 | 23.6 | 57% | LV |
| LA | 13.3 | 9.1 | 24.5 | 54% | ARZ |
| GB | 13.3 | 15 | 29.7 | 45% | CHI |
| ATL | 13.2 | 17 | 33.7 | 39% | CAR |
| DET | 12.4 | 14.7 | 27.8 | 45% | DEN |
| SF | 12.2 | 14.7 | 29.4 | 41% | CIN |
| JAX | 11.9 | 13.1 | 26.8 | 44% | TEN |
| CAR | 11.7 | 10.2 | 22.7 | 51% | ATL |
| DEN | 10.6 | 11.7 | 23 | 46% | DET |
| WAS | 10.6 | 12.4 | 24.6 | 43% | DAL |
| NYJ | 10.5 | 14.7 | 26.4 | 40% | NO |
| PHI | 10 | 12.6 | 23.4 | 43% | BYE |
| ARZ | 9.7 | 10.7 | 22.6 | 43% | LA |
| CLV | 9.7 | 8.1 | 19.8 | 49% | BLT |
| DAL | 9.4 | 18.2 | 28.2 | 33% | WAS |
| CIN | 9 | 16.7 | 26 | 34% | SF |
| HST | 9 | 16.1 | 25.6 | 35% | SEA |
| LV | 8.8 | 14.5 | 24.4 | 36% | KC |
| MIA | 8.6 | 13.7 | 24.1 | 36% | BYE |
| TB | 8.4 | 15.7 | 25.8 | 33% | BUF |
| NO | 8.1 | 16.4 | 25.5 | 32% | NYJ |
| SEA | 8 | 9.6 | 19.7 | 41% | HST |
| NYG | 7.8 | 15.7 | 26.7 | 29% | LAC |
| PIT | 7.7 | 15.9 | 26.2 | 29% | MIN |
| LAC | 7.7 | 19.9 | 27.7 | 28% | NYG |
| BUF | 7.1 | 6.1 | 14.7 | 48% | TB |
| CHI | 6.3 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 35% | GB |
| BLT | 6.3 | 19.9 | 29.5 | 21% | CLV |
| IND | 4.2 | 15.4 | 20.2 | 21% | BYE |
| NE | 4 | 8.4 | 13 | 30% | BYE |
| NFL AVG. | 9.8 | 13.6 | 24.8 | 39% |
*Screen Passes are included in the total
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Slot % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Slot Matchup Upgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Matchup Upgrade: Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy is coming off his best receiving yard performance (77 yards) in Week 13 vs. the Chiefs. In that contest, Jeudy returned to his full-time slot role, playing 90% of his snaps in the slot. Even with his best receiving game performance of the season, Jeudy still only saw 6 targets catching 4-77. The Broncos’ passing attack has been spread thin as they have a bunch of weapons. In Week 14 this was no different as 6 players saw between 4-7 targets on the week. It didn’t help that the Broncos ran into a buzz saw as the Chiefs DST is playing at a high level right now.
In Week 14 the Broncos take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed 300 yards passing in back-to-back games. This should open the door for some additional volume this week especially for Jeudy. The Lions have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. This includes solid games vs. K.J. Osborn (4-47-1), Ray-Ray McCloud (9-63), and Darnell Mooney (5-123). These matchups should put Jeudy back on the WR3 map for Week 14.
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Upgrade: Hunter Renfrow
Since Week 8, Hunter Renfrow is 6th in the NFL in slot targets, 4th in slot receptions and 5th in slot yards. What is more impressive about Renfrow is his expanded role outside of the slot. Overall, Renfrow is top 15 in total targets, receptions, and yards while scoring 2 TDs since Week 8. This has vaulted Renfrow into the top 10 for WR PPG during the past 5 weeks. The production is off the charts for a player like Renfrow who was thought to be just a slot WR. Instead, he’s the new #1 WR for the Raiders leading the team in routes over the past month.
This week the Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ defense has been white-hot over the past few weeks. However, their one weak spot seems to be on the inside to WRs. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. This includes a solid game to Renfrow himself securing (7-46-1) on 9 targets back in Week 10. This matchup along with his recent usage puts Renfrow on the WR2 map for Week 14.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Matchup Upgrade: Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk is quietly having an excellent bounce-back campaign. Through 12 games, Kirk already has more receptions and yards than he had all of 2020. Kirk didn’t completely fall off the map in the 3 starts with Colt McCoy averaging 5 receptions for 58 yards. Now with Kyler Murray back in the lineup we should expect things to start ticking back up for Kirk especially in the TD category. Kirk has failed to find the end zone in 5 straight games after scoring 4 times in the first 7.
In Week 14 the Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams. This game could be a fun one for fantasy as both offenses look to put up points. Earlier this season the Cardinals scored 37 points on the Rams. The issue for Kirk was that he wasn’t invited to the party only catching 1 pass for 5 yards. A big difference for Kirk now is top Rams CB Jalen Ramsey is used more on the outside. This has led the Rams to allow more production on the inside. Over the past 5 weeks, the Rams have allowed the 4th most points to the slot. This matchup should put Kirk on the WR3 map for Week 14.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Matchup Upgrade: Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd over the past 5 weeks has been as up and down as they come. Boyd during this stretch has 3 performances of 10 PPR fantasy points or more and 2 complete duds. The bigger issue for Boyd’s fantasy owners is it’s getting hard to predict when the good games will come. Boyd has played well vs. the Jets (13th), Raiders (20th) and Chargers (27th) in fantasy points allowed to the slot. Meanwhile, his 2 bust games came vs. the Browns (16th) and the Steelers (26th). This all over the map production does make it hard to know when to start and fade him. The good news for Boyd’s fantasy owners is the pass volume has gone up for the Bengals as a whole. Cincinnati went from 29th in drop-backs per game from weeks 1-8 to 15th over the past 5 weeks.
This week the Bengals take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. This includes solid games to primary slot WRs Christian Kirk (6-91) and Cooper Kupp (11-122). Currently ranked outside the top 36 WRs in Fantasy Pros ECR, Boyd is an option as a WR3 in PPR formats in Week 14.
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Matchup Upgrade: Russell Gage
After a few up and down performances, the first couple of games back from his injury, Russel Gage has hit his stride over the past few weeks. Since week 11, Gage has averaged 7.3 receptions for 80 yards and 1 score. Over this timeframe, Gage has separated himself from the rest of the Falcons receiving core seeing 27 targets vs. 17 for the next highest player. Gage’s role has expanded outside of the slot seeing only 39% of his snaps on the inside over this stretch. The usage is important as it looks like Gage will now stay on the field in 2 WRs sets as he is trusted more on the outside. The good news for us is that Gage still sees roughly 2/3 of his targets in the slot.
In Week 14 the Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have allowed the 10th most points to the slot over the past 5 weeks. Notable inside WRs Christian Kirk (7-58) and Jaylen Waddle (9-137-1) had solid PPR days vs. this Panthers defense on the inside. This matchup along with the new usage of Gage should put him on the WR3 map this week.
Slot Matchup Downgrades
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup Downgrade: Cole Beasley
Cole Beasley’s value has been tied very closely to the health of Dawson Knox this season. In the 3 games where Knox didn’t play or left early, Beasley averaged 8.3 receptions for 77 yards and 1 score. In the other 9 games where Knox started and finished the game, Beasley’s numbers plummet. In those contests, Beasley only averages 4.2 receptions for 34 yards and no scores. It looks like Knox has surpassed Beasley in the pecking order which has completely destroyed his fantasy value. This has been clear over the past 4 weeks as Beasley has failed to crack 50 yards in any game.
In Week 14 the Bills take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have really turned a corner vs. WRs overall, and continue to lock down inside WRs as well. Over the past 5 weeks, the Bucs have allowed the 5th fewest points to the slot. Currently ranked as the WR34 on the week according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Beasley should be viewed as nothing more than a WR4/5 in PPR formats this week.
Top Rest of Season Slot Schedules
| Team Offense | ROS Slot PPG Allowed |
|---|---|
| PIT | 13.3 |
| CHI | 11.3 |
| BLT | 11.3 |
| SF | 11.3 |
| ATL | 10.8 |
| MIA | 10.8 |
| CIN | 10.6 |
ROS Slot PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed to the slot by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros Pro Football Reference, FFToday, Sleeper and Football Outsiders
