The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 13. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.
Team DEF | Slot PPG Last 5 |
Wide PPG Last 5 |
Total PPG Last 5 |
Wide % Last 5 |
OFF Opponent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HST | 10.2 | 20.9 | 31.9 | 65% | IND |
IND | 5.9 | 19.7 | 26.5 | 75% | HST |
TB | 5.5 | 18.4 | 25.4 | 72% | ATL |
MIN | 18.5 | 18.1 | 37 | 49% | DET |
NYJ | 12.4 | 18.1 | 31.8 | 57% | PHI |
NO | 11.9 | 17.3 | 30.6 | 56% | DAL |
BLT | 7.6 | 17 | 28.4 | 60% | PIT |
LV | 9.5 | 16.8 | 27.5 | 61% | WAS |
TEN | 12.2 | 16.4 | 29.9 | 55% | BYE |
LAC | 7.3 | 16.3 | 23.7 | 69% | CIN |
JAX | 7.4 | 15.3 | 24.7 | 62% | LA |
GB | 12.5 | 14.6 | 29.1 | 50% | BYE |
MIA | 12.4 | 14.6 | 29.9 | 49% | NYG |
ATL | 10.5 | 14.5 | 27.9 | 52% | TB |
DEN | 12.3 | 14.4 | 27 | 53% | KC |
LA | 12.2 | 14.2 | 27.8 | 51% | JAX |
CIN | 9.2 | 14 | 23.9 | 59% | LAC |
DAL | 10.9 | 13.6 | 25.4 | 53% | NO |
WAS | 8.3 | 13.2 | 23.2 | 57% | LV |
PIT | 8.8 | 12.9 | 24.8 | 52% | BLT |
SF | 10.7 | 11.9 | 24.9 | 48% | SEA |
PHI | 7.8 | 10.6 | 18.7 | 57% | NYJ |
CLV | 8.3 | 10 | 19.9 | 50% | BYE |
CAR | 9.6 | 9.9 | 20.1 | 49% | BYE |
KC | 13.3 | 9.7 | 24.7 | 39% | DEN |
SEA | 10.8 | 8.7 | 22.9 | 38% | SF |
NE | 5.4 | 8.6 | 14.7 | 59% | BUF |
ARZ | 11.8 | 8.5 | 22.2 | 38% | CHI |
BUF | 8.2 | 8.5 | 18.2 | 47% | NE |
NYG | 10.6 | 8.4 | 25.1 | 33% | MIA |
CHI | 11.2 | 8.1 | 22.8 | 35% | ARZ |
DET | 10.1 | 7.3 | 18.3 | 40% | MIN |
NFL AVG. | 10.1 | 13.4 | 25.3 | 53% |
*Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Houston Texans
Matchup Upgrade: Michael Pittman
Michael Pittman is having a solid season as the new WR1 for the Colts. Pittman sits as the WR18 overall and the WR24 in PPG. Pittman has hit a bit of a rough patch over the past 3 weeks failing to hit double-digit fantasy points in any game since Week 9. Before we all panic on Pittman, game flow has hurt him in 2 of 3 games. In the Buffalo Bills game specifically, the Colts dominated on the ground only attempting 20 passes on the week. In Week 12, Pittman saw 10 targets vs. the Bucs, but only caught 4 narrowly missing a few big plays.
This week Pittman will have the best matchup on the week as the Colts take on the Houston Texans. The Texans have allowed the most fantasy points to out wide WRs over the past 5 weeks. Notable WRs Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jaylen Waddle, and Robert Woods had double-digit fantasy point days vs. this secondary since Week 8. Started in 75% of sleeper leagues, Pittman should be an auto-start in Week 13.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Upgrade: Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks has defied the odds and has put together a very strong 2021 on one of the worst teams in football. Cooks through Week 12 sits as the WR30 in PPG in .5 PPR. This production includes 7 games of 12 or more fantasy points in .5 PPR. If we just zero in on the games with Tyrod Taylor at QB Cooks has hit that mark in 3 of 5 games. In the other two games with Taylor, Cooks saw 13 targets catching 6-56 and the other was that bad weather game vs. the Titans where Taylor only threw for 107 yards. The point of this exercise is to say that Cooks has been good with Taylor.
This week the Texans take on the Colts. The Colts have allowed the 2nd most points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Notable WRs A.J. Brown (10-155-1), Elijah Moore (7-84-2), and Stefon Diggs (4-23-2) all had big days for fantasy vs. the Colts. Currently ranked as the WR23 on the week according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Cooks is a solid WR2 in Week 13.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: New York Jets
Matchup Upgrade: DeVonta Smith
The rollercoaster that has been DeVonta Smith’s fantasy season has been an interesting one for fantasy managers. Smith has 4 games of 15 or more fantasy points and 5 games of under 5 points in .5 PPR. This up and down season might hurt fantasy managers as his floor is extremely low. On the flip side, Smith has performed well vs. his good matchups and bad in his tough ones. For example, over the past 5 weeks, Smith had two big games vs. the Broncos (15th) and the Chargers (10th) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. His two bad games came against the Lions (32nd) and Giants (30th). This does make it a bit easier to know when to pull the trigger on Smith as a WR3 in your lineup.
This week is that week to start Smith as the Eagles take on the New York Jets. The Jets have allowed the 4th most points to outside WRs. Notable outside WRs Stefon Diggs (8-162-1), Jaylen Waddle (8-65) and Brandin Cooks (3-45-1) all had strong days vs. the Jets. Started in 65% of sleeper leagues, Smith should be a solid start in Week 13.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Downgrade: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton has hit a bit of a slump since the return of Jerry Jeudy back in Week 8. During this stretch, Sutton has averaged 1.8 receptions for 24 yards with no scores. Sutton’s best game of these 4 contests came back in Week 8 where he went 2-40 vs. the Washington Football. The only caveat is the Broncos haven’t thrown much as they have attempted 30 passes in a game once during this timeframe. However, this extremely low floor along with the limited ceiling with Jeudy back in the lineup makes it hard to justify starting him.
This week the Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to outside WRs. This includes shutting down notable players like Ceedee Lamb (3-14) and Davante Adams (6-42) in 2 of the last 3 games. Currently ranked as the WR34 on the week according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Sutton should be faded completely in Week 13.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Matchup Downgrade: A.J. Green / DeAndre Hopkins
We are still waiting on the final word from the Arizona Cardinals to see if DeAndre Hopkins will finally make his return. It does sound like he will be a game-time decision. As for Kyler Murray he does look like he should return after his long absence in Week 13. Either way there is a lot of moving part here which could lead to some rust for this offense. Before Kyler Murray went down in Week 8, the Cardinals offense was dominating including a resurgence from A.J. Green. Green had at least 50 yards or a TD in 6 of those first 8 games putting him firmly on the WR3 map.
Heading into Week 13, the Cardinals take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears have been tough vs. outside WRs allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points on the outside over the past 5 weeks. This includes slowing down Diontae Johnson (5-56) and Brandon Aiyuk (4-45) during this stretch. If Hopkins returns it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach even with Kyler back in the lineup. If Hopkins is out, Green is nothing more than a WR4 if needed this week.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Matchup Downgrade: Adam Thielen
Let’s try this again. After getting burned by Thielen in Week 12 for two TDs, we are now here to defend our take… well not defend it but try to take down Thielen again. Thielen is one of the hottest WRs since the Vikings bye in Week 7 catching 5 TDs over the past 5 weeks. During this stretch, the Vikings have faced the Cowboys (18th), Ravens (7th), Chargers (10th), Packers (14th), and the 49ers (21st) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. Even in the games where Thielen had a dud week (2-6), he found the end zone, saving his fantasy day.
This week Thielen takes on the Detroit Lions. Believe it or not, the Lions have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Thielen has struggled vs. the Lions over the past 2 seasons going (2-40), (4-57), and (2-38) in his last 3 games vs. Detroit. Currently ranked as the WR11 on the week according to Fantasy Pros ECR, Thielen’s TD ability still makes him starting asset but he’s best viewed as a WR3 this week.
Top Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
Team Offense | ROS Wide PPG Allowed |
---|---|
JAX | 15.6 |
CLV | 15.3 |
NYJ | 15.2 |
MIA | 15.1 |
NO | 14.9 |
SF | 14.9 |
KC | 14.8 |
CAR | 14.6 |
HST | 14.4 |
PIT | 14.2 |
ROS Wide PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed out wide by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday Sleeper, and Football Outsiders