The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 14. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.
| Team DEF | Slot PPG Last 5 |
Wide PPG Last 5 |
Total PPG Last 5 |
Wide % Last 5 |
Off Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 7.7 | 19.9 | 27.7 | 72% | NYG |
| BLT | 6.3 | 19.9 | 29.5 | 68% | CLV |
| DAL | 9.4 | 18.2 | 28.2 | 65% | WAS |
| ATL | 13.2 | 17 | 33.7 | 50% | CAR |
| CIN | 9 | 16.7 | 26 | 64% | SF |
| MIN | 16.3 | 16.5 | 33.2 | 50% | PIT |
| NO | 8.1 | 16.4 | 25.5 | 64% | NYJ |
| HST | 9 | 16.1 | 25.6 | 63% | SEA |
| PIT | 7.7 | 15.9 | 26.2 | 61% | MIN |
| TB | 8.4 | 15.7 | 25.8 | 61% | BUF |
| NYG | 7.8 | 15.7 | 26.7 | 59% | LAC |
| IND | 4.2 | 15.4 | 20.2 | 76% | BYE |
| GB | 13.3 | 15 | 29.7 | 51% | CHI |
| DET | 12.4 | 14.7 | 27.8 | 53% | DEN |
| SF | 12.2 | 14.7 | 29.4 | 50% | CIN |
| NYJ | 10.5 | 14.7 | 26.4 | 56% | NO |
| LV | 8.8 | 14.5 | 24.4 | 59% | KC |
| MIA | 8.6 | 13.7 | 24.1 | 57% | BYE |
| TEN | 13.9 | 13.1 | 28.7 | 46% | JAX |
| JAX | 11.9 | 13.1 | 26.8 | 49% | TEN |
| PHI | 10 | 12.6 | 23.4 | 54% | BYE |
| WAS | 10.6 | 12.4 | 24.6 | 50% | DAL |
| DEN | 10.6 | 11.7 | 23 | 51% | DET |
| ARZ | 9.7 | 10.7 | 22.6 | 48% | LA |
| CAR | 11.7 | 10.2 | 22.7 | 45% | ATL |
| CHI | 6.3 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 56% | GB |
| SEA | 8 | 9.6 | 19.7 | 49% | HST |
| LA | 13.3 | 9.1 | 24.5 | 37% | ARZ |
| KC | 13.4 | 8.8 | 23.6 | 37% | LV |
| NE | 4 | 8.4 | 13 | 65% | BYE |
| CLV | 9.7 | 8.1 | 19.8 | 41% | BLT |
| BUF | 7.1 | 6.1 | 14.7 | 41% | TB |
| NFL AVG. | 9.8 | 13.6 | 24.8 | 55% |
*Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Cleveland Browns
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Matchup Upgrade: Jarvis Landry
Coming out of the bye week it is easy to forget that Jarvis Landry was coming off his best game of the season. In Week 12 vs. the Ravens, Landry secured 6 receptions for 111 yards. This marked the first time all season that Landry was over 75 receiving yards in any game. The bye week came at a great time for the Browns as it should help Baker Mayfield heal a little bit from his multiple injuries.
Heading into Week 14 the Browns once again take on the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are tied for the most fantasy points allowed on the outside to WRs over the past 5 weeks. This includes allowing at least 100 yards receiving to 1 WR in 3 straight games. With notable players like David Njoku, Harrison Bryant and Anthony Schwartz out, Mayfield should lean on Landry once again in Week 14. Currently ranked as the WR29 according to FantasyPros ECR, Landry is a solid WR3 this week.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Matchup Upgrade: D.J. Moore
After a blazing hot start to the season, D.J. Moore cooled off a bit over the past few weeks. The good news for Moore’s fantasy managers is that it looks like old pal Cam Newton has helped spark his fantasy value once again. Over Newton’s first two starts, Moore has averaged 4.5 receptions, 76.5 yards and 1 score. These two performances marked the first time Moore was a top 24 WR since Week 4.
This week the Carolina Panthers take on the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Notable WRs Mike Evans (7-99) and Ceedee Lamb (6-94-2) had great days vs. the Falcons over the past 2 weeks. Currently ranked as the WR15 according to FantasyPros ECR, Moore is a solid WR2 vs. Atlanta this week.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup Upgrade: Brandon Aiyuk
After a very disappointing start to the season Brandon Aiyuk has really turned it on over the second half. In weeks 1-7, Aiyuk only averaged 1.5 receptions for 16 yards and 1 TD while playing just 66% of the snaps. In week 8 Aiyuk saw his playing time jump to a season high 88% of the snaps and he hasn’t looked back since. Since Week 8, he has averaged 4.3 receptions for 65 yards and 2 TD while playing over 91% of the snaps. This new usage has made Aiyuk much more valuable for fantasy, but it is notable that he still has 3 solid games and 3 duds over this timeframe.
In Week 14 the 49ers take on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. The Bengals could be down Top CB Chidobe Awuzie this week which should only enhance Aiyuk’s matchup. Currently ranked as the WR24 according to FantasyPros ECR, Aiyuk is a solid WR2 vs. the Bengals this week.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Matchup Downgrade: DeAndre Hopkins
It was a welcome sign to see DeAndre Hopkins back on the field for the first time since getting hurt back in Week 8. Hopkins immediately stepped back into the primary WR1 role as he led the team in routes. This reinsertion back into the lineup didn’t lead to a big fantasy day as Hopkins caught just 2 passes, but luckily for fantasy owners 1 went for a TD. The lower receiving numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as the Cardinals only attempted 15 passes in Week 13.
Heading into Week 14, the Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Hopkins hasn’t been great vs. the Rams in his first 2 season in Arizona securing (4-67), (4-35) and (8-52-1). This historical production along with the Rams using Jalen Ramsey more on the outside over the second half could lead to a slower day for Hopkins. Currently ranked as the WR13 according to FantasyPros ECR, Hopkins is best viewed as a WR3 vs. the Rams this week.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Matchup Downgrade: Brandin Cooks
It wouldn’t be an out wide article here on Razzball if we didn’t mention good ole Brandin Cooks. It seems that every week Cooks either has a top 8 matchup or a bottom 8 matchup. This week unfortunately for Cooks owners it isn’t a good matchup. A bigger issue for Cooks is it looks like the Texans are set to turn back to rookie QB Davis Mills after the injury to Tyrod Taylor in Week 13.
Before we panic let’s dive into Cooks games with Mills. In the 6 starts with Mills, Cooks averaged 6.2 receptions for 62.5 yards and .2 TDs. Cooks was a bit up and down as he had 3 games with 80 or more receiving yards and 3 games under 50 yards. Due to his up and down nature with Mills it might be best to fade him as Seahawks have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to out wide WRs over the past 5 weeks. Currently ranked as the WR22 according to FantasyPros ECR, Cooks is best viewed as a WR4 vs. Seahawks this week.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Matchup Downgrade: Odell Beckham, Jr.
To say Odell Beckham looks rejuvenated with the Rams is an understatement. After scoring just 7 TDs in his 29 games with the Browns, Beckham has scored twice in his first 3 games with the Rams. Beckham has done this on limited snap counts as he has been over 55% of the snaps just once in his first 3 games. It looks like Beckham was limited last week due to injury, but he is practicing in full for Week 14. This could open up the door for Beckham to have bigger days down the stretch if he is healthy.
This week it could be a tough test for Beckham as the Rams take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals over the past 5 weeks have allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to outside WRs. This includes shutting down D.J. Moore (4-24), DK Metcalf (4-31) and Darnell Mooney (5-27) in each of the last 3 games. Currently ranked as the WR27 according to FantasyPros ECR, Beckham is nothing more than a WR4 vs. Cardinals this week.
Top Rest of Season
Out Wide Schedules
| Team Offense | ROS Wide PPG Allowed by Opponents |
|---|---|
| KC | 16.7 |
| DEN | 16.4 |
| CLV | 16.3 |
| SF | 15.7 |
| WAS | 15.4 |
| NYG | 15.2 |
| MIA | 14.7 |
| NYJ | 14.7 |
ROS Wide PPG Allowed by Opponents – Average Points Per Game Allowed out wide by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, Sleeper, and Football Outsiders
