Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings: The Impact of NFL Coaching Changes

Welcome to my bi-weekly tight end rankings update. Each fortnight, I’ll take you through the major movers and shakers in fantasy tight end-land as we enter the NFL off-season. This week, I’ll be talking about tight ends who have new play callers for 2024, while my full rankings are at the bottom of the article. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.

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Player: Kyle Pitts

Team: Atlanta Falcons

My Ranking: TE12

The Falcons have completely overhauled their coaching ranks, with new head coach Raheem Morris joined by OC and play caller Zac Robinson. It may be a year or two before we can accurately reflect on Arthur Smith’s time in Atlanta, but one thing is not in question: he underused his best offensive weapons. Kyle Pitts was regularly used behind backup Jonnu Smith and went from a rookie sensation to an after-thought with consecutive underwhelming seasons, making him very hard to trust entering the 2024 draft season.

As much as we all love to project Pitts to have a big bounce back with presumedly a new quarterback (maybe a rookie in Bo Nix or a veteran signing), in reality, we know very little about what to expect from Morris or Robinson. Morris made tight end Kellen Winslow his top receiver across three seasons in Tampa 15 years ago and made Hayden Hurst fantasy relevant in Atlanta in 2020, so there’s certainly upside there. Robinson, meanwhile, has zero play-calling experience but comes from the Sean McVay system that for years made Tyler Higbee a key receiving weapon thanks to a heap of pass-heavy 11 personnel. So, to summarize, there are plenty of question marks that stop me from ranking Pitts higher, but he’s a guy I can see rising as the off-season progresses.

Player: Cole Kmet

Team: Chicago Bears

My Ranking: TE9

Chicago sees Shane Waldron arrive as OC and play caller after a successful stint in Seattle. Waldron will likely adjust the Bears playbook into more of a McVay-style West Coast Offense rather than throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Expect similar terminology but an adjustment to more 11 personnel and greater effectiveness from 12 personnel, where the Seahawks shone last year. Assuming Kmet gets the majority of snaps in both personnel groupings, he should be in for another top-12 season. After all, the Seahawks’ tight ends combined for about 70 receptions and 800 yards despite competing with three top wide receivers and a heavy run game. While the Bears will no doubt bring in some receiving help, Kmet is likely to be one of the featured options. If Justin Fields stays in town, we’ve seen that’s good for Kmet. If the Bears draft Caleb Williams, that’s even better, as rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight ends more than veterans. Ultimately, I like this hire for the Bears, though free agency could still see Kmet drop a little in my rankings.

Player: Michael Mayer

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

My Ranking: TE17

The Raiders retained head coach Antonio Pierce for the 2024 season, removing the ‘interim’ tag, but it’s new OC Luke Getsy that is of most interest. We saw last year how effectively Getsy used Cole Kmet as the second pass catcher behind DJ Moore in a run-heavy offense. The Raiders have a similar profile, meaning Michael Meyer could be in for a second-year bump behind aging star Davante Adams, assuming he stays in Vegas. Getsy does lean heavily on 12 and 13 personnel, which will likely mean a veteran blocking tight end will join the group even if Austin Hooper doesn’t re-sign, but it’s unlikely we see Meyer losing as many receiving snaps as his rookie season. He’s a late-round flyer who could be in for a big second-season bump.

Player: Hunter Henry

Team: New England Patriots (maybe?)

My Ranking: TE20

The Patriots enter the post-Belichick era with plenty of questions about their play calling. While Alex van Pelt is the new OC, he hasn’t been confirmed as the play-caller quite yet. While his hiring seems like a boon for Patriots tight ends, van Pelt wasn’t actually the key catalyst behind David Njoku’s late-season resurgence in Cleveland, with Kevin Stefanski calling the plays. Even if van Pelt brings a tight end-heavy scheme to New England, it’s not yet possible to push Hunter Henry up rankings boards. Henry and TE2 Mike Gesicki are both free agents, with no public conversations suggesting he’ll return. This is very much a spot to watch, as whichever tight end gets the lead role for the Patriots will be worth a late-round pick in fantasy drafts.