Fantasy Football Two Minute Drill, Week 4

We have three weeks worth of stats, so it’s officially time to introduce “Points Allowed”. Our friends at myfantasyleague.com have given the Razzball community access to an all-inclusive site. Yes, free drinks, meals, and non-motorized water sports. The only thing you have to pay for is the women (pay meaning your date/spouse/affair; not prostitute). This site uses very common scoring systems for offense, team defense, individual defensive players (IDP), and kick/punt returners (avoid comparing offense to defense because the scoring is skewed way in favor of the offense). MFL’s clean engine allows users to breeze through all the positions in an effort to exploit or avoid match-ups. Whether it’s MFL or other “points allowed” features like the Pass Defense Strategery, multiple options allow the user to roll with their favorite. The site is also a great place to view stats not typically used for fantasy football. Rush Attempts, Average Yards per Rush, Targets, Kickoff Returns, and Punt Returns are all scored as zero points. They don’t affect fantasy scoring, but you’re still able to view the results in these categories by clicking on any of the Weekly Point Totals. The “Two Minute Drill” will be highlighting key season-to-date and past-few-weeks “Points Allowed” data throughout the entire season. It’s so cool it makes me want to dance.

Fantasy Football thoughts and opinions heading into NFL Week 4.

Detroit at Dallas

Again, don’t sweat the poor rushing from RB Javid Best. He has the fourth best receiving yardage in the league.
TE Brandon Pettigrew, Week 3: 11 Receptions, 13 Targets, 112 Receiving Yards. Poor running game leads to extra short pass opportunities.
It’s the little things that separate good receivers and great receivers and special receivers. Watch WR Calvin Johnson attack the football instead of letting it come to him.
You’re still not holding out hope for LB DeAndre Levy, are you?
How many more examples do you need? QB Tony Romo has awful fantasy performances in primetime games.
Finally some guts displayed by RB Felix Jones in Week 3: 14 Rushes, 115 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards.
It took the last real play of the game for LB Anthony Spencer owners to be rewarded. Box score says 4 Solos, 1 Sack, 1 FF regardless of when it happened.
I would have lost lots of money if I bet against LB Sean Lee being a Top 10 LB after three weeks. Shut up, you would have lost money too.

Carolina at Chicago

RB Jonathan Stewart, season-to-date: 23 Rushes, 90 Rushing Yards, 13 Receptions, 140 Receiving Yards, zero TD’s. He’s been bad, but RB DeAngelo Williams has been worse. Season-to-date: 27 Rushes, 61 Rushing Yards, 7 Receptions, 46 Receiving Yards, zero TD’s. I doubt their value can get any lower, so see if you can steal them from an itchy owner. I prefer DeAngelo.
Bears’ Cover-2 defense won’t allow WR Steve Smith to go deep, but it will allow numerous receptions in the soft spots.
Other Panthers’ wide receivers, season-to-date receptions: Armanti Edwards zero, Seyi Ajirotutu zero, Legedu Naanee 4, Brandon LaFell 8. The receiver lacking will continue, and former Bear TE Greg Olsen will be the beneficiary.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bears give up the third-most fantasy points to defensive ends. Keep in mind the Bears give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to defensive tackles (due to an inability to run), so don’t assume everyone on the defensive line has a juicy match-up. DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are the guys with huge upside this weekend.
I’m still searching for the hold on the Bears’ nullified punt return TD. Packers still win, but it mattered for WR Johnny Knox owners and people who bet the Bears +4.
It’s not RB Matt Forte’s fault he only amassed 2 Rushing Yards in Week 3. Thank the pitiful offensive line and the general manager. He’s still a valuable fantasy asset due to his tremendous receiving abilities.
It’s officially time to drop WR Roy Williams and add rookie WR Dane Sanzenbacher. Even if Williams improves, it won’t be enough to make you regret the decision.
I surprised LB Brian Urlacher hasn’t been allowed to play goal line tight end ala Mike Vrabel. He’s got terrific hands.
LB Lance Briggs posted 10 Solos in consecutive weeks.

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bengals give up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. No way you’re benching WR Steve Johnson, but you might consider other options if you own WR’s Donald Jones or David Nelson.
And I’m continuing to call him “Steve”, not “Stevie”, as determined by the Buffalo Bills website.
Nothing? Not even a little hint of fantasy production RB C.J. Spiller.
I still prefer DB’s George Wilson, Bryan Scott, and Jarius Byrd, but LB Nick Barnett has put up good fantasy stats (17 Solos, 12 Assists, 1 FF, 1 PD).
Since there was no announcement on a suspension, you get another week to be tortured by RB Cedric Benson.
WR Andre Caldwell had 12 Targets in Week 3. Based on the odds, a few balls will land in his hands if it continues.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bills give up the fewest fantasy points to dumb kickers. Like you needed more convincing to avoid K Mike Nugent.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bills give up the fewest fantasy points to defensive ends. Stock down for DE’s Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap.

Tennessee at Cleveland

RB Chris Johnson, season-to-date: 46 Rushes, 98 Rushing Yards, 13 Receptions, 91 Receiving Yards. If you like a hot poker in your eyeball, that’s 2.1 yards per rush.
After Week 3’s game, WR Kenny Britt told The Tennessean “my status is limping”. Turns out the last play of his season is a fumble lost. WR Nate Washington takes over as WR1, but he’s only rosterable in 16-team leagues.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Browns give up the most fantasy points to dumb kickers. Is it too early in the season to exploit kicking match-ups? Nope – give K Rob Bironas a shot.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Browns give up the fewest fantasy points to linebackers. LB Barrett Ruud won’t break out of his slump this weekend.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Titans give up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Stock down QB Colt McCoy.
RB Montario Hardesty, Week 3: 14 rushes, 67 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 19 Receiving Yards. Nice 4.8 yards per carry in the absence of RB Peyton Hillis.
If WR Josh Cribbs can make this catch, why isn’t he a more consistent factor throughout the season?
Acquire DB T.J. Ward despite his slow start (11 Solos, 3 Assists, 0 Sacks, 0 Turnovers, 2 PD).

Minnesota at Kansas City

The Vikings suck, and RB Adrian Peterson is still sweet as chocolate.
WR Michael Jenkins, Week 3: 9 Receptions, 11 Targets, 88 Receiving Yards. He seems to be a safer desperation option than WR Bernard Berrian.
I’m surprised at the inefficiency of TE Visanthe Shiancoe. He scored in Week 3, but it was just his fourth catch of the season.
IDP consistency is preferred, but DE Jared Allen wins you a fantasy game or two by himself every season.
Antoine Winfield leads the league in cornerback tackles. Most cornerbacks on the top of the list are surprises, which goes to show how valuable Winfield has been over his career.
Two good weeks in a row for WR Dwayne Bowe. I don’t believe in jinxes, so too bad for you that I just said it.
RB Dexter McCluster is a poor man’s Javid Best. Roster him but pray you don’t need to start him.
Speaking of rostering, get 26-year old RB Le’Ron McClain if you have room.

Washington at St. Louis

QB Joe Flacco threw for 389 yards with 2 TD’s in Week 3. Seems obvious to start QB Rex Grossman.
From Chris Russell, Washington Redskins Insider: “Had a few tweets about TH 25 (RB Tim Hightower) missing some cutback lanes, that’s going to happen in this scheme – however to miss the enormous tunnel on cut left with under 2 to go in half was a blown chance.” Look, he’s not perfect. Hightower is a capable back with excellent blocking skills, and rookie RB Roy Helu is only spelling him on a few series per game.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Bench TE’s Chris Cooley and Fred Davis.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the most fantasy points to defensive ends. While there aren’t any worthy ‘Skins’ ends to target, LB Ryan Kerrigan could get some shrapnel. He’s been productive in each of the first three games of his career.
I’m starting DB Oshiomogho Atogwe vs his former team. The return of strong safety LaRon Landry allows Atogwe to return to his more familiar role of free safety, where he’s a much better fantasy and real-life force.
RB Steven Jackson should be good to go on Sunday, which bumps the value of every teammate.
TE Lance Kendricks has had no more than two receptions and 26 receiving yards in any game. Why did you spend a high pick on him again?
DE Chris Long has a sack in every game this season.
CBS report: “Coach Steve Spagnuolo on the play of CB Justin King: ‘No explanation for that. He struggled a little bit, sort of like a pitcher in baseball that doesn’t have his stuff some days.’ King was beaten by Ravens WR Torrey Smith Sunday for three TDs in the first quarter.” The Rams have no alternatives, so King will continue to get action.

New Orleans at Jacksonville

RB Darren Sproles is still running wild. Become a believer.
Keep WR Marques Colston benched until you see him play well.
Be concerned about LB Jonathan Vilma’s knee. Remember, it was a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2007 season.
I saw the Jaguars last play of the first half live on DirecTV. Well, I saw what I could just like everyone else. Unique play-call by the coaches and great execution by QB Blaine Gabbert and WR Mike Thomas while playing in a swimming pool.
So far so good regarding RB Maurice Jones-Drew’s production and health. You got a great deal on draft day.
TE Marcedes Lewis, season-to-date: 4 Receptions, 5 Targets, 43 Receiving Yards, zero TD’s, 1 missed game. Buy low.
LB Paul Posluszny – sell low.

Pittsburgh at Houston

It appears the only person who can knock away the ball from WR Mike Wallace is the cameraman. Watch closely at the 23 second mark.
QB Ben Roethlisberger has been lousy in leagues that favor touchdowns/turnovers. Ride it out. He’s facing some terrible defenses down the road.
RB Rashard Mendenhall has been lousy in both yardage and touchdown leagues. Don’t trade him away. He’ll prove his first round draft status soon enough.
I read a message board post yesterday of a guy who wanted to dump LB Lawrence Timmons for a “Bowman or Chaney type”. Its comments like that which give IDP a bad name.
DB Troy Polamalu has got his speed back.
Start RB Arian Foster. RB Ben Tate induced panic will do you no good.
Texans’ snap count (66 total), per ProFootballFocus: TE Owen Daniels 60, TE Joel Dreessen 50, TE/FB James Casey 47. “Daniels ran 34 of a possible 41 pass routes, which tells us that the other two players are not cutting into his role in the pass game. Instead, the losers were the wideouts not named Andre Johnson.”
It’s going to take an extremely wacky play to top WR Kevin Walter’s touchdown.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Steelers give up the second-most fantasy points to defensive ends. You’re desperate starting a 3-4 end, but DE J.J. Watt would be the guy to target.
Zero sacks and turnovers for LB Brian Cushing. Do you fear the 3-4 switch has castrated him?
CB Jonathan Joseph vs WR Mike Wallace. Start Joseph.

San Francisco at Philadelphia

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Eagles give up the most fantasy points to running backs. RB Frank Gore better be looking over his shoulder. If he misses the game due to injury, rookie RB Kendall Hunter is poised to have a big game.
The fact that QB Alex Smith only has one turnover is a mirage. He hasn’t thrown for more than 201 yards in a game this season. However, I don’t see a change to rookie QB Colin Kaepernick because the 49ers appear to be the best team in the NFC West.
Josh Morgan leads the 49ers wide receivers with 80 yards. That’s the season, not Week 3.
Season-to-date: LB Navorro Bowman 24 Solos, 6 Assists. LB Patrick Willis 16 Solos, 6 Assists. As a Willis owner in multiple leagues, I’m not worried. There’s enough tackles for Willis to share.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: 49ers give up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Stock down RB LeSean McCoy.
Kevlar has become the latest NFL fashion craze. QB Michael Vick will attempt to play (and finish) Week 4.
Don’t ever listen to injury news coming from a player. It’s false hope WR Jeremy Maclin owners.
I’ve cut TE Brent Celek. What’s taking you so long?
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: 49ers give up the fewest fantasy points to cornerbacks. CB’s Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie aren’t worth using even with a good match-up.
The Eagles shook up their linebacking unit by removing Casey Matthews, moving Jamar Chaney to the middle, and inserting Brian Rolle at weakside. There must be something seriously wrong with free agent LB Lofa Tatupu not to be signed by Philly.

NY Giants at Arizona

Last week, it was just another example of why you never count out the Giants and QB Eli Manning. He’s a winner.
If you watch WR Victor Cruz’s 74-yard TD catch in slow-motion, you can see why he’s maddening to the Giants’ coaches. He was lucky to catch the pass, as his head was already turned upfield before the ball hit his hands. His natural skill will give him plenty of playing time, but you should expect a few mental lapses per game.
Rookie LB Jacquian Williams, past two weeks: 15 Solos, 2 Assists. Check out this article I read while eating lunch at the Portuguese restaurant. His speed is great for the nickel and dime, but his diminutive size might prevent him from being useful in the 4-3.
I’m starting DB Antrel Rolle vs his former team.
I tried playing fetch with my dog yesterday, but when I threw the squeaky toy WR Larry Fitzgerald came out of nowhere and took it away.
If you recall, RB Beanie Wells has a significant injury history. You should have gotten used to this missed game and limited practice stuff.
I was high on WR Steve Breaston this preseason. I can’t cut him, yet.
TE Todd Heap, Week 3: 6 Receptions, 10 Targets, 61 Receiving Yards. It’s the Targets that you should notice.

Atlanta at Seattle

It would be nice of the Falcons could get one touchdown each for RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White, and WR Julio Jones. The Seahawks 12th man could be the only resistance.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Seahawks give up the fewest fantasy points to defensive tackles. And it’s scary low due to the ‘Hawks inability to run. DT Jonathan Babineaux is hurt, and avoid the rest of the Falcons’ middle linemen.
This is the kind of match-up where DE John Abraham records 2.5 sacks.
WR Sidney Rice, Week 3: 8 Receptions, 10 Targets, 109 Receiving Yards. He’s that good even QB Tavaris Jackson can’t slow him down.
LB Leroy Hill, Week 3: 8 Solos, 3 Assists, 1 Sack, 1 FF. It’s amazing he’s still inSeattle. He’s a useful fantasy bench player.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Falcons give up the most fantasy points to cornerbacks. Stock up CB’s Marcus Trufant and Brandon Browner.

Miami at San Diego

RB Daniel Thomas, Week 3: 23 Rushes, 95 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 27 Receiving Yards, 1 TD. Past 2 weeks, Miami rushing attempts plus targets: Thomas 45, RB Reggie Bush 18. That turned quick. Pay attention to the Thomas injury news over the weekend.
Who’s covering WR Brandon Marshall? Exactly.
DB Yeremiah Bell has too many Assists and not enough Solos.
LB Karlos Dansby has not enough Assists and Solos, plus he has zero Sacks and Turnovers.
RB Mike Tolbert’s fantasy stats have gone down every week while RB Ryan Mathews’ continue to rise. Stay the course Tolbert owners; he still has value.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Dolphins give up the most fantasy points to tight ends. I’m starting TE Randy McMichael (if TE Antonio Gates misses the game due to injury) vs his former team. And check out McMichael’s twitter. He’s a connoisseur of twitter ass.
WR Patrick Crayton, Week 3: 5 Receptions, 7 Targets, 47 Receiving Yards. Good emergency fantasy player.
LB Takeo Spikes’ neck is bigger than your waist. He’s suffering from the same problem as Yeremiah Bell (not the neck thing, the assist/solo thing).

New England at Oakland

Sign of fantasy greatness: QB Tom Brady had four interceptions and still has a monster fantasy game.
WR Wes Welker had more production in one game than 75 receivers will have all year. I’m so giddy I traded for him (plus role players) in the middle of last week for RB Matt Forte.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Week 3 with TE Aaron Hernandez sidelined: 7 Receptions, 9 Targets, 109 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.
Hidden in the Week 3 shootout was zero Receptions, 3 Targets for WR Deion Branch.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. You better have a stud if you’re going to bench QB Jason Campbell.
The way RB Darren McFadden galloped in Week 3, he could have made it to New York on foot before the Jets passed through airport security in Oakland.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. WR Denarius Moore is the only receiver I trust. His Week 3 TD run and endzone dive was nice, but the block by OL Samson Satele was the highlight of the play.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the most fantasy points to safeties. Stock up for DB Tyvon Branch. Check the health of DB Michael Huff.

Denver at Green Bay

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Packers give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That’s right, the Packers. There shouldn’t be calls for QB Tim Tebow next week as QB Kyle Orton will have a good game.
WR Eric Decker, Targets per week: 5, 9, 12, total 26.
It’s a shame, but LB Wesley Woodyard is probably going to the bench this week with LB D.J. Williams’ return.
Super game for TE Jermichael Finley. Now he’ll nap for a few weeks in a row.
RB Ryan Grant isn’t dead just yet, but now he’s dinged up. Rumor has it rookie RB Alex Green is suiting up this Sunday.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Broncos give up the fewest fantasy points to kick/punt returners. Two games were in the thin air of Denver, so it’s probably skewed. WR Randall Cobb owners should still take note.
DB Morgan Burnett is on fire.

NY Jets at Baltimore

RB Shonn Greene and the Jets can’t run, but at least he got receiving stats in Week 3 (7 Receptions, 47 Yards). Problem is on the season-to-date, the Ravens give up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Bench him.
Don’t be afraid to start QB Mark Sanchez.
TE Dustin Keller is averaging 5.3 Receptions, 7.7 Targets, and 83 Receiving Yards per game.
Only two Jets had more than four solos in Week 3: DB Eric Smith and CB Antonio Cromartie. LB David Harris finally got a big play, but he only had 2 solos.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. QB Joe Flacco’s bonkers Week 3 game will make up for this presumed lousy Week 4 game.
Earlier, I stated I cut Celek. I replaced him with TE Ed Dickson. And it’s not just for this week where I can watch him on primetime. Dickson has 20 Targets on the season.
In a world that makes sense, WR Lee Evans should have been the beneficiary of rookie WR Torrey Smith’s bananas game. Fantasy is never that easy.
LB Ray Lewis is 36 and playing like he’s 26.
CB Lardarius Webb is playing solid fantasy defense, plus he’s returning punts and possibly kickoffs. Get him active.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

I hope WR Reggie Wayne was right about backing QB Chris Painter. His, TE Dallas Clark, and WR Pierre Garcon’s stats are depending on it.
LB Pat Angerer, season-to-date: 24 Solos, 18 Assists, 1 FR, 1 FF. He’s now locked in the middle with LB Gary Brackett done for the season.
QB Josh Freeman is constantly average for fantasy purposes. He’s good enough to be your starter, but you better have some serious weapons surrounding him.
I hate starting a pass-catching only player in the RB slot. But if your team is weak, use RB Earnest Graham.
Tampa WR Mike Williams has barely been better than Seattle WR Mike Williams. Not good.
LB Quincy Black’s value takes a significant hit with him losing three-down status to rookie LB Mason Foster.

Vegas, NFL Spreads Week 4, Season Record 6-5-1

Kansas City (+2) vs Minnesota
Houston (-3.5) vs Pittsburgh
Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago

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