Fantasy Points Per Reception
Running Back Edition (PART 1)
Before you go any further if you haven’t read the original article on the Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis (PPRA), we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here. In Part 1 of the running back edition, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.
Yes, we will be diving into the receiving portion of our analysis, but the concept is the same as the original PPRA article. The biggest difference is the numbers are a bit higher. For example, the league average FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half-point more per game they need to catch 40 passes and see an uptick in FPPR of .2.
The running backs who saw an outlier season of -10% in FPPR on average saw an increase of .47 or 40% increase in FPPR the next season. That means for every 40 receptions these running backs saw an increase of just over one fantasy point per game in .5 PPR the year after they had an outlier season.
2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates
Player: Derrick Henry
2020 FPPR: 1.10
Career avg. FPPR: 1.68
FPPR Variance: -35%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 20.4 | 21.1 |
Derrick Henry isn’t known for his passing game chops and rightfully so. Henry in his five-year career has topped out at 19 receptions. The good news for Henry is he has seen an uptick in receptions each season since 2017 with his career-high of 19 coming in 2020. Last year he generated 114 yards and zero touchdowns on those 19 receptions. The year prior Henry generated 206 yards and two touchdowns on 18 receptions. Even though his 2019 numbers were higher than his career norm, he should fall somewhere in the middle on a FPPR basis in 2021.
This season the Titans are vacating 224 targets, which are the 3rd most in the NFL. Last season all three of the top teams in vacated targets saw an uptick in running back target percentage. So, if a few of those new available targets trickle down towards Henry, he could see even a bigger jump in his pass game numbers in 2021.
Player: Austin Ekeler
2020 FPPR: 1.47
Career avg. FPPR: 1.94
FPPR Variance: -24%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 15.2* | 17.7 |
*9 Full games
Austin Ekeler is the headliner of this analysis as his outlier season comes while averaging 5.3 receptions per game last season. This means his outlier season had a much bigger effect on his PPG last year as seen by the 2.5 PPG jump in his projection for 2021. Ekeler had an outlier season across the board as he was a part of the previous series PPRA as an outlier in the ground game as well.
The best news for Ekeler is new Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi is known to feature running backs in the passing game. In 2014 and 2015 as the Lions Offensive Coordinator, Detroit was 1st and 2nd in targets and target percentage to running backs. Knowing the new coaching staff will feature running backs in the passing game makes Ekeler’s potential jump in FPPR more important when evaluating him as a first-round pick. If he gets back to his career efficiency in FPPR and PPRA, Ekeler could improve his PPG by 4.1 or 19.3 PPG in .5 PPR. That would have been good for the RB5 in 2020.
Player: Melvin Gordon
2020 FPPR: 1.18
Career avg. FPPR: 1.52
FPPR Variance: -22%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 12.7 | 13.5 |
Melvin Gordon’s demise with the Broncos drafting Javonte Williams might be a bit rash. In 2020 Gordon quietly had his second-best rushing season when it came to efficiency. Gordon ranked 10th in PFF’s rushing grades, 9th in rushing yards, and 9th in rushing touchdowns. The issues came with his pass game usage. Gordon had a career-low 2.1 receptions and 10.5 receiving yards per game. Both were way below his career norms of 3.3 receptions and 28 receiving yards per game previously with the Chargers.
A bigger factor for Gordon’s potential improvement outside of just positive regression is the projected uptick in usage with Teddy Bridgewater. Last season Teddy. B targeted his running backs on 21.7% of his pass attempts. That is roughly 8% higher than what Drew Lock had with the Broncos in 2020. Now 8% doesn’t sound like a lot but based on the 556 attempts that the Broncos had last season that would provide an additional 44 targets to running backs in 2021.
Player: James White
2020 FPPR: 1.39
Career avg. FPPR: 1.78
FPPR Variance: -22%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 6.6 | 8 |
James White’s lack of efficiency could be blamed on the fact that New England had its first new quarterback since 2001. However, it’s not all on Cam Newton either. Newton didn’t get picked up by the Patriots until the latter half of the offseason and later contracted COVID. That basically stopped any momentum the Patriots had in its tracks.
There is room for optimism for White in 2021 to improve even higher than just his 8 PPG projection. In 2017 and 2018 before his injury, Newton began to connect with his new weapon Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers in those seasons ranked 4th and 9th in running back target percentage. In 2020 the Patriots quietly ranked 1st in running back target percentage at 29.2%.
This offseason Newton is getting plenty of work with his teammates. Plus, with a newly revamped group of playmakers the Patriots should improve on their offensive plays per game-rank of 29th. In this improved offense, we could see Newton get closer to his career 16 game pace of 509 pass attempts. This coupled with White’s 16% target share should help push him closer to double-digit fantasy points in 2021.
Player: Ezekiel Elliott
2020 FPPR: 1.38
Career avg. FPPR: 1.63
FPPR Variance: -15%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 13.7 | 14.6 |
At this point, it is safe to say no Dak Prescott and injuries to his offensive line derailed Ezekiel Elliott’s 2020 campaign. Like Ekeler, Zeke was featured on both the PPRA and FPPR analysis. The 14.6 projected fantasy points are only half the story. If we included his projected increase in PPRA his total projected increase is 16.1 PPG. That PPG would have tied Zeke with James Robinson as the RB7 in 2020.
However, the projected PPG increase from our metrics isn’t the whole story with Zeke. Last season in the four full games with Dak Zeke saw a ridiculous 20% target share. If Zeke continued with that pace, he would have crushed his career-high in targets of 95 with 120. The pass game usage gives him a new level of upside to reach new heights that we might not have seen in his early years. This makes him an intriguing pick in the top half of the first round in 2021.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
