Welcome to the new off-season series, aptly named ‘Final Fantasy’. In this series, Razzball will be focusing the spotlight on certain players that either exceeded or fell-by-the-wayside of our expectations, and we’ll briefly touch them with our thoughts, legally. Despite rumor (and the series name), we will not be discussing anything +5 to magic missile. Unless there’s actually a NFL player that shoots missiles. And has, like, an amulet to vitality or something like that. Michael Vick’s -98 amulet of dog-caring will be excluded in this particular instance. Regardless, let’s get to the spotlight for today, and that’s Dwayne Bowe.

Rush YDS TD REC YDS TD
ESPN Projections 78 982 6
CBS Projections 81 1165 8
Razzball Projections 81 1150 5
2013 Actual Stats 57 673 5

Since being drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round with pick 23 in 2007. Dwayne Bowe has had four seasons of playing 16 games in each. In those four seasons, he has averaged 77.3 catches, 1.084.5 yards and eight touchdowns per season. Never catching less than 70 passes, he has provided, in three of his last four seasons, at least 1,022 yards and scoring no less than five touchdowns. And he was able to do that with the likes of Damon Hurad, Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, and Kyle Orton throwing him the football. That’s a far cry from a treasure cove of quarterbacks.

Let’s take a look in the 2013 game log:

– Week 1-9 (9 games): 3.6 catches, 41 yards, .22 touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game.

– Week 11-16 (6 games): 4 catches, 50.5 yards, .5 touchdowns on 7.6 targets per game.

The final stat line for Dwayne Bowe in 15 games: 57 catches, 672 yards, five touchdowns on 103 targets.

Those numbers had him ranked 47th among WRs in standard(Non-PPR) scoring. Almost every stat was down across the board and they were drastic drop-offs when compared to the averages of the previous four seasons.

There was a large amount of disappointment and frustration specifically in his first nine games. The first factor was the lack of targets. In three games, he saw four or fewer targets and with so few targets, there was obviously less opportunity for him to have consistent catching numbers and make an impact. Second, he had no more than three catches in three games. The third, and final negative stat was that in five games, he had only 46 yards or less and no touchdowns. When you add all these together, well, you see the reason why the final stat line ended up the way it did.

After the bye in week 10, there was a shift and a lot of positive production came from Bowe. His targets got a bump up and he saw a little over one more per game on average. He also had two games with double-digit targets. Along with the additional targets, came more catches. He had at least four catches in four of the six games. He also had three games with 51 yards or more and a touchdown.

If you expand on his numbers from the final six games. You would have the 22nd ranked WR in standard(Non-PPR) scoring. And if you add the playoff game vs the Colts, he had eight catches for 150 yards and one touchdown. The arrow is pointing up for Dwayne Bowe in terms of fantasy value in 2014.

 

You can follow Fantasy with Dase or Days on twitter.