A rash of injuries, coupled with the first big BYE week, is making Week 7 challenging for all of us. The math is pretty simple: injuries plus bye weeks = digging a little deeper. We’ll need to keep this in mind when exploring the matchups this week. Don’t worry. There are still plenty of nuggets out there to exploit.
Let’s not belabor the effort with more preparatory words and just jump right in with a quick hitter.
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1.
QBs were hit especially hard by injuries coming into the week. As of this writing, it appears we may be missing several fantasy “starters” (I use that term loosely for some of these QBs), including Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, and Daniel Jones. In a normal week, these names wouldn’t throw fantasy owners into a fit. Adding to them, the loss of Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and even Zach Wilson and Ryan Tannehill due to the BYE week can get downright scary – especially in SuperFlex leagues.
During our Sunday Live Start/Sit show (shameless plug – see below), two of the QBs we tend to get a number of questions on are going to be must-starts this week: Geno Smith and Jordan Love.
Geno Smith hasn’t been nearly as productive in fantasy as he was last year. In fact, he’s only surpassed 20 fantasy points just once (Week 2 @ Detroit). In the other four games, he’s averaging an underwhelming 14.3 points. Enter the Arizona Cardinals. The Red Birds travel to Seattle, bringing a banged-up defense that allows the 5thmost fantasy points (20.4) to QBs.
The BYE week for Green Bay QB Jordan Love came at the right time. Through the first four weeks, Jordan amassed eight total TDs and an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game. His Week 5 trip to Sin City ended much like yours and mine, licking our wounds and wondering where it all went. Not only did the 0 TD/3 INTs game seal the Packers’ fate, but it also probably did the same for his fantasy owners. With an extra week to prepare for the 2nd worst defense versus QBs, look for Love to get back on track.
- Strong Starts: Geno Smith and Jordan Love
2.
Again, going back to our Sunday Live Start/Sit show, I’ve noticed recently we started receiving legitimate start/sit questions on Josh Jacobs. There’s no question he’s been a huge disappointment this season despite being projected as a top 5-7 back each week. Only once, in Week 4 at the Chargers, has he surpassed 20 points (PPR), and that was primarily due to the 8/81 receiving performance. He gets another chance to figure it out this week against a Bears defense that ranks 4th worst in points to RBs (24.5 pts). I’m not sure we have much confidence remaining for Jacobs, but use whatever you have left here.
A good RB start for me is Brian Robinson against the no-luck Giants. The Giants’ defense has given up nine rushing TDs and over 22 points per game to RBs on average. It’s not like Robinson is lighting it up this year either, but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities to rush the ball and even more consistent targets in the passing game as of late. With a matchup against a defense giving up an average of 150+ rushing yards and in a weaker RB market this week, Robinson has a good chance to earn his stripes for you.
- Strong Start: Josh Jacobs
- Good Start: Brian Robinson
3.
Here are a couple of slot WRs I like this week:
- Curtis Samuel (Commanders) – The Giants are giving up 15.5 PPG (4th most) to slot receivers. Samuel is the 7th ranked WR in fantasy scoring from the slot position. He’s worth a WR #3 or Flex spot.
- Nelson Agholor (Ravens) – Agholor is not scoring a lot of fantasy points per week, but when he does, 81% comes out of the slot position. The Lions are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to slot receivers. Consider Agholor as a Flex option if you’re thin at WR.
4.
Same thing, but for wideouts this time:
- Tyreek Hill – Tyreek is ranked #1 in SCORING fantasy points from the wideout position. The Eagles’ defense is ranked #1 in ALLOWING fantasy points from the wideout position. Yikes! There are no decisions here. I just had to share those numbers…
- Puka Nacua – After a couple of weeks where Cooper Kupp garnered much of the attention, this one against the Steelers lines up nicely for Puka. The Steelers are giving up the 4th most fantasy PPG while Puka is scoring the 3rd most amongst WRs.
- Amari Cooper – We’re not yet sure who’ll be throwing the ball for the Browns when they face the Colts, but whoever it is, they should be looking toward Cooper. The Colts are giving up 81% of their receiving PPG to the wideout position. Cooper is scoring 83% of his points from the wideout position. I like those odds for Cooper.
5.
Let’s visit the TE position to finish my five things to know.
Looking at the “targets allowed” metric, the following teams playing in Week 7 give up the most targets to TEs: Falcons, Colts, Raiders, Bears, and Lions. Here are the TEs playing those teams:
- Cade Otton (Buccaneers vs Falcons): He’s not getting many targets lately but tends to convert the ones he does into fantasy points.
- David Njoku (Browns at Colts): Still trying to surpass 50 yards receiving and scoring a TD, but he’s getting 4-5 targets per week. It’s just a matter of time.
- Cole Kmet (Bears vs Raiders): Biggest factor here is Tyson Bagent under center for the Bears. Start at your own risk.
- Michael Mayer (Raiders @ Bears): Similar deal here…Jimmy Garoppolo is not expected to play in this one, passing the torch to Brian Hoyer. Hoyer came in and had some immediate success last week, so I don’t expect Mayer to be negatively affected nearly as much as Kmet.
- Mark Andrews (Ravens vs Lions): Expect Andrews to remind everyone why he’s a #1 TE.
There you go, another week of insights in the books. Best of luck in your season-long or DFS action, and don’t forget…
If you have Start/Sit questions leading up to kickoff, don’t forget to subscribe and tune into the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show on Sunday mornings. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuarco, @Stiles08, and I will answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
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Until next time, my friends.
