Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11


Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.

Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.

At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.

Tier I

Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.

Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.

LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.

Tier II

Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.

Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”

Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.

Tier III

Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.

Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.

Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.

You can follow us on twitter: @Razzball_Drew, @mgeoffriau, @Razzball

  1. wakeNbake says:

    I traded Marshawn Lynch and Mike Wallace for Braylon Edwards and Lesean McCoy on Saturday… sometimes I love fantasy football.

  2. Sos says:

    Carolina, jacksonville, or balt def this week? Already own balt but not thrilled with ind matchup and sort of in a must win situation. One other option might be detroit vs cle? Thanks.

  3. Drew

    Drew says:

    @Sos: definitely not Baltimore. The other defense are pretty blah- nothing too exciting. I’d bet against the worst offense (Cleveland) and roll with the Lions.

  4. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:

    Man, I was happy when I snagged Denver’s defense off waivers. Now I’m contemplating dropping them and picking up Dallas again. Denver against SD, or Dallas against Washington….guess I don’t have much of a choice, do I?

  5. Drew

    Drew says:

    @mgeoffriau: I am in the same boat in one of my leagues except Dallas isn’t available. Every year I punt Defense until the last few rounds. Sometimes I pick one that gets hot early on in the season. I tell myself I should trade them but I don’t because I think they’ll be the next incarnation of the 2000 Ravens. Then they come back to Earth and I want to punch myself in the face for not swapping them to upgrade elsewhere. It’s a twisted and painful cycle.

  6. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:

    @Drew: I’m pretty set on trying to grab Dallas. Now the question is if I am willing to burn my waiver # on them (assuming my waiver claim on Snelling doesn’t go through) or if I risk waiting for them to clear waivers.

  7. Ben says:

    Looks like I could have some issues with injuries this week, and with not knowing what is going to happen with Slaton…

    Best Waiver Wire Pickup? (10-team PPR)
    Jason Snelling
    Jerious Norwood
    Jamal Lewis

    I would definitely go Norwood, but not sure about his injury status… and of course the Falcons aren’t going to say too much. Thoughts?

  8. Ben says:

    I can add Forsett to that list, too… although going against Minne’s run D isn’t the matchup I’m looking for!

  9. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:

    @Ben: I do think Forsett has some upside, even against MIN. From what I’ve seen, the Seahawks throw a good many passes to the RB’s (both Jones and Forsett). Could have a similar day to Rice (though probably not as much yardage).

  10. Drew

    Drew says:

    @Ben: I would put your primary claim on Snelling and your secondary on Forsett. I actually like Forsett the most between those two players but Snelling’s valued higher. Norwood is great to roster if you have the additional space but I would see if you can get those two first.

  11. Ben says:

    Thanks guys… always appreciate the responses.

  12. Jo says:

    now that the saints and colts are 9-0, should we be looking to trade Brees/Peyton for someone that wont be given a rest at the end of the season. I have Brees and a 2 week playoff (wk 15 & 16) I’m thinking about going after Rodgers for him. What do you think

  13. Drew

    Drew says:

    @Jo: I like your thought process but don’t see either of them getting limited action in weeks 15 and 16. Week 17 is a possibility though so if you have a long playoff schedule you should consider trading them for Rivers + additional value.

  14. matthole says:

    @mgeoffriau: Any news on Turner/how many weeks he’ll be out?

    10 team .5ppr; howd u rank: forsett, snelling, b.scott, i guess even chris jennings vs det.

    Also, which if any would you start over Hightower @STL

    My Defense is Chi (vs PHI)…..would you start either CLE or DET since they play each other? and if so which one?

    Finally, Maclin or jennings? maclins been outproducing on my bench


  15. Drew

    Drew says:

    @matthole: the way you have them ranked is how I would rank them going forward. I would still start Hightower. I would go with Detroit, you never know when Philadelphia is going to hang 30+. It sounds crazy but I’d rather have Maclin starting.

  16. eldee says:

    Sometimes you just have to get lucky. I traded Dwayne Bowe about 5 hours ago.

  17. Jim Parkey says:

    Would you start Wells or Moreno this weekend?

  18. Vargo says:

    Trade offer

    I give Larry Fitz and Bernard Scott
    I get Tony Romo and Donald Driver

    Right now i currently have Cutler, and WR – Hester, Sims-Walker, Harvin.

    Go for it?

  19. Jo says:

    @Vargo: seems like a legit deal to me… also consider that Cutler doesn’t have the best playoff matchups: 14- GB, 15-Bal, 16-Min…all of which are tough defenses.

  20. matthole says:

    @Drew: That being said….you think its an overreaction to trade jennings for mccoy, solidifying my RB situation till turner heals, or would you hold onto him and hope for the best with hightower this week vs STL and Sproles next week vs KC…..thanks

  21. Harley says:

    @Drew: For this week only, .5 ppr league…Forsett, Snelling, Scott, Betts, or Norwood?

  22. timSTi says:

    I feel like I need to make a move, but not too sure what. Any tips?

    12 Team PPR

    Turner / Barber
    Wayne / Breaston / Colston


    Bradshaw / Betts
    Chambers / Sims-Walker
    Waiver claim on Snelling (fingers crossed)

  23. Randy says:

    Which of these RB’s should I have on my team?
    Justin Fargas, Shonn Greene, Bernard Scott, Sammy Morris, Maurice Morris, Rashaad Jennings, Danny Ware

    Sproles and Chaarles are my starters(Leon Washington was my #2 RB but he got hosed)(return yards league) with Forsett, Snelling, Fargas, and Greene on my bench.

    Bernard Scott interests me because he returns sometimes… but Caldwell is #1 KR I think…

  24. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Harley: Betts and Snelling

    @timSTi: Might need to bite the bullet and give Wayne for an RB with Turner down.

    @Randy: I like Greene’s schedule.

  25. AL KOHOLIC says:

    new coach for the bills,hey it cant hurt T.O

  26. Drew

    Drew says:

    @matthole: I would do that trade, personally

  27. Christopher says:

    I offered McNabb/DJax for Brees (12-Team non-PPR).
    WR (start 4): Megatron/Boldin/Driver/Cotchery/DJax
    QBs (start 1): McNabb/Hasselback

    We’ll see…

    With Bowe out four 4 games, I think Long will benefit. 10-Team PPR, would you drop Collie to pick up Long?
    WRs (start 3): Smith (NYG)/Austin/Rice/Megatron/Collie

  28. Drew

    Drew says:

    @Christopher: I wouldn’t take that trade.

    WR Start: leave out Cotchery
    QB Start: Philadelphia

    Yes, I would pick Long up.

    WR Start: Smith (NYG), Megatron, Rice

  29. MarkM says:

    12 team PPR.

    Do I trade my Colston and Tony Gonzalez for his Andre Johnson and Mendenhall?

    Mendenhall would be my flex play behind MJD and CJ(Tenn)

    I’m not dying for a WR, but Johnson looks like he’s got a cake schedule the rest of the way and there are decent TEs available like Miller, Watson, Pettigrew, etc. No one special, but serviceable.

  30. NateMarcum

    nate marcum says:

    Kind of a complex question.

    I am in a 12 team auction ppr keeper league. Cap is $250. You can only keep 1 player from prior year at auction value. 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE,K,Def, Flex

    C Johnson
    R. Moss
    B. Marshall
    Mendenhall (flex)

    I was offered Colston and Slaton for mason and Mendenhall. Mendenhall is only 10 and would be a great keeper. We are currently in first and weekly high points pays out $90, is their enough upgrade to warrant the loss of a significant keeper?

  31. Sean says:

    I lost Benson last week. Thanks to you guys I had picked up Scott after last week’s article. I’ve also had Beanie Wells and Justin Forsett on my bench for weeks – again, all thanks to Razzball. A big THANK YOU to razzball – the first site I go to for fantasy advice (baseball and football). Damn, this sounds like an infomercial…

    Anyways, who would you guys start this week in place of Benson? Wells, Forsett, Fargas or Scott?

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