Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11
Formula:
Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity
Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.
Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.
At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.
Tier I
Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.
Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.
Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.
LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.
Tier II
Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.
Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.
Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”
Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.
Tier III
Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.
Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.
Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.
Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.
Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.
Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.
Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.
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