If you missed the initial “Sleeper Math” post, you can read it here.

Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Now that we have two weeks of regular season play under our belts things have changed. As I wrote about in a previous post this is a new era where our drafts are behind us and we start getting paranoid about our studs not panning out. Some players haven’t put up numbers and that is a good thing. So all the players I’m going to talk about here I look at within a “buy low” framework.

Tier I

Calvin Johnson 19 (10+9) – Everyone expects production similar to Andre Johnson. I think that is reasonable. Don’t talk to me about how he has no quarterback and is on a bad team. Last year he had a worse QB, worse offense around him, and the worst team possible (0-16) yet he put up huge numbers. Strong work ethic, physical specimen, etc. But all the negativity I just rebutted; you can bet some owners are very nervous about those things. Play psychological warfare and see if you can steal him for a couple good players.

Steve Slaton 17 (9+8) – He has disappointed thus far but the offense looked dynamite last week. The yards, receptions, and touchdowns will be there. Astute owners and people who drafted him too high (1st round reachers) won’t cough him up but luckily most people are nervous nellies. If you get in to negotiations make sure you play up the fact that Chris Brown is listed as the short distance back and will snake TD’s from Slaton (personally I’m not all that concerned about this but other people are).

Marshawn Lynch 16 (8+8) – Is that Fred Jackson out there or Brian Westbrook? It’s been hard to tell through the first two weeks and you can bet that there are some Lynch owners getting very nervous about it. Personally I think Lynch is going to come in guns blazing, be the feature back, and get all the goal line carries. You can get him extremely cheap right now.

Wes Welker 16 (7+9) – This is for PPR only! If you own Welker in non-PPR odds are you overpaid for him. The Patriots offense isn’t what it was in 2007 but it’s also better than it’s been the first few weeks. Welker missed week 2 but it doesn’t seem like his injury will keep him out of any more games. From here on out he’ll be back to his old tricks and catching 6-10 balls every single week.

Brandon Marshall 16 (9+7) – The tough call here is whether or not Marshall will get the number of targets he needs to be his elite self. So far he hasn’t been spectacular but the reality is he’s as physically gifted as any other receiver in football. Owners should be willing to give a discount on him.

Tier II

Mario Manningham 16 (8+8) – I can’t list this guy as a Tier III Sleeper even though he went undrafted in all but the deepest leagues. The cat is out of the bag about his talent and the Giants willingness to give him massive numbers of targets. You are going to have to give up something decent to get him. There will be a lot of smart fantasy owners this season who trade for him and seemingly give up “too much” but end up getting the better end of the bargain.

LeSean McCoy 15 (9+6) – Westbrook’s injury status is still uncertain. If he winds up missing significant time McCoy could deliver 2nd round value. I would be willing to pay for that type of potential production. He might be the best stash in fantasy football right now.

Percy Harvin 15 (8+7) – Still listed as the #3 on the depth chart in a lot of places but you and I both know how Brett Favre feels about turning young, nubile WR’s in to studs- he loves it. It is evident that Harvin is a superior player to Berrian and Sidney Rice and I just see him potentially being a breakout rookie.

Eddie Royal 15 (8+7) – The lack of targets in the first few weeks kill his value. Even so he is listed as the #1 receiver on the depth chart and the Broncos used him like crazy in the preseason. Dude’s got a lot of talent and he’s not a bad player to take a chance on considering the pass-happy offense that Josh McDaniel’s is integrating in Denver.

Ahmad Bradshaw 15 (8+7) I am downgrading his skill a little bit from the previous post. I am not convinced he has “Sproles-like” explosiveness. Even so the Giants offense is going to be respectable this season and Brandon Jacobs continues to punish his body along with defenders he collides with. Bradshaw hasn’t done anything spectacular thus far which should lower his asking price unless you are in leagues full of Giants fans like I am. Then you have to give up Brees to get him.

Tier III

Chansi Stuckey 14 (7+7) – I really like what I’ve seen so far this season from Stuckey. I also like what I’ve seen out of Mark Sanchez’s willingness to target him in the Red Zone and on deep routes. There are worse stashes out there.

Nate Washington 14 (7+7) – He looked really solid this weekend after missing the Titans first game. They looked to get him the ball a lot more than Justin Gage and I’m not sure how seriously to consider that yet. Either way he’s worth tucking on your bench if you have room and need receiver depth.

Laurent Robinson 14 (8+6) – Another receiver that played a really nice game on Sunday. He’s usurped Donnie Avery as the #1 in St. Louis and his skill set could turn out to be better than advertised. I would love to rate him higher but St. Louis looks atrocious.  It is very difficult to find #1 WR’s on the waiver wire. Here’s one.

Louis Murphy 14 (7+7) – What’s with all the receivers??? Look it’s not my fault they’re all coming out of the woodwork. Plus if you read my first “Sleeper Math” you’ll see that I nailed a lot of the running backs and whiffed on receivers ergo the imbalance in Tier III this time around. Isn’t it funny how when guys get drafted high and get a big contract they just aren’t hungry *cough* Darrius Heyward-Bey *cough.* Louis Murphy is yet another dude who wants that big contract and so he’s willing to fight and claw for everything he can get. He is now the #1 but again here’s another atrocious Offense.

Jerious Norwood 13 (8+5) – I can’t end this post without giving you a RB stash. Here’s another Sproles-clone for you and he’s in a decent Offense. Michael Turner had 28 carries last week. Do the Falcons have some sort of bet riding on how quickly they can get this dude injured? Maybe you’re one of those old dudes who don’t believe that a lot of carries increases your chances of getting injured. If, however, you like facts vs. glorifying a twisted view of the past I suggest stashing Norwood for when Turner wears down or worse.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

  1. nater1 says:
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    I like Manningham, too. I’m in a PPR league and can get Manningham or Steve Smith (NYG). Should I grab one of these guys? Which one is better long term for me? I also have a WR/TE flex position and Kellen Winslow is available. Which of the 3 is a better long term bet for the season? THANKS!

  2. Drew

    Drew says:
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    @nater1: if your league is a full 1 PPR I think you have to grab Smith. If it’s .5 PPR I think it’s a total tossup but I like Manningham’s ceiling a little more. If it were non-PPR I’d tell you to go Manningham all day.

  3. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    *FULL WHINE MODE ENGAGED*

    So I put the 4th most points in the league in Week 2….unfortunately, after last night’s performances from Manning and Ronnie Brown, I was facing the most points in the league.

    0-2, still loving my roster.

    *WHINE MODE OFF*

  4. Brent says:
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    I need a TE for Week 4 since it’s the bye week for Tony Gonzalez. I can pick up either Celek, Heap or Dustin Keller and I’d probably have to drop either Chris Henry or Knowshon Moreno (my other bench players in case I’m way off are Crayton, Leon Washington, and Laurent Robinson). It’s a PPR league for what it’s worth. Thanks for the great advice so far.

  5. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Brent: Drop Chris Henry…I try to avoid dropping any RB with a legit chance to have a full time job. Moreno’s a Buckhalter injury away from 20ish carries a game.

    Haven’t looked at the matchups yet, but I’d lean toward Celek or Heap. Celek would be my pick right now, he seems to get the targets in the Philly offense regardless of who the QB is.

  6. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Brent: mgeoffriau sounds right on to me.

  7. Doc

    Doc says:
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    There’s a good chance Barber will be out next week. If you need a RB I’d pick up Choice.

  8. eldee says:
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    So, I’ll jump on the OMG GIANTS RECEIVERS bandwagon and ask: drop Walter for Manningham? Drop Walter for Smith?

  9. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Doc: Ah, thanks for the reminder. Weekly waivers in my league, so I’ve got Manningham (dropping Heap) and Choice (dropping Dallas) in queue. If I get either of them I’ll sort out my defense afterward.

  10. eldee says:
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    @Brent: As an Eagles fan, Celek has been getting a ton of local buzz. He’s going to get his targets. Plus Heap’s numbers have come against the Chiefs and the Chargers, two teams that stink at controlling the TE.

  11. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @eldee: Not only that, but Heap wasn’t that great against the Chargers. He got a TD to salvage the day, but otherwise wasn’t targeted much.

  12. paulzone says:
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    i just got slaton/roethlisberger and gave up bradshaw/anthony gonzalez (ind).

    i really didnt need big ben as i have warner & cutler but i looked at it as slaton for bradshaw.

    what do you think of the trade?

  13. nate says:
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    I really like the work you guys have been doing. Just a note, though, Eddie Royal had nine targets Sunday, and they were basically all in the first half (two targets inside the ten yard line, one near-touchdown). He is definitely a buy-low, just being used more than his stats might show.

  14. nate says:
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    paulzone, awesome trade. slaton will be fine (look at Houston’s schedule, plus no loading the box against Schaub) and Big Ben will be better than Warner or Cutler many weeks. Steelers are a pass-first team now.

  15. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @paulzone: i like it for you,and with the running game not up to par in pitt,ben wont hurt you,infact id trade him or cutler

  16. Howie says:
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    Non PPR’er here… your post got me thinking about which WR to target on tonight’s waiver wire… it will be an active evening within my (and probably most) league.

    Driver, Manningham, Harvin (I guess your article addressed the relative position of MM and Harvin…but, is Driver > MM? Is Driver > Harvin?

  17. Pound Sand says:
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    Forte would be my #1 buy at this point….didn’t see him listed.

  18. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @paulzone: Great!

    @nate: Thanks for the heads up.

    @Howie: Not sure how Drew views this, but I’m a Driver fan mainly because of Aaron Rodgers. He is also a known commodity. Is Manningham Burress? Maybe some weeks, but he will probably be a little inconsistent. Harvin will also be inconsistent and if Favre doesn’t throw more his upside may be capped. I like him a lot though! I’m just a fan of Driver.

  19. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Pound Sand: Yes, Forte is a good buy candidate.

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Reports of Barber being out 2 weeks now.

  21. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Doc: Switch the priority of my waiver claims? Choice over Manningham?

  22. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Doc: whats up with this forsett guy?better option than coffee?

  23. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @mgeoffriau: If you need a back to play a flex position this week. Panthers run D is bad.

    @AL KOHOLIC: Yeah, they love him up there. He’s worth a flier, but it’s pretty much a lateral move at this point.

  24. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    amother week, another waiver wire D to roate in. this week i am rolling with the DENVER BRONCOS. off to a solid start, and i really don’t see anything about the raiders should keep them from posting at least 1 more solid outing.

  25. Matt B says:
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    10-Team PPR (2RB, 3WR, 1Flex)
    RB1: LT
    RB2: F Jackson / M Lynch
    RBbench: C Benson, J Jones, M Bell
    WR1: R Moss
    WR2: G Jennings
    WR3: H Ward
    WRbench: P Crayton, J Cotchery, S Breaston

    Would you trade Moss & Breaston for Slaton, Addai, and Desean Jackson?

  26. Drew

    Drew says:
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    @MattB: Absolutely I would. Is that offer on the table?

  27. Matt B says:
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    @Drew: Yes, I’m hesitant because the PPR gives WR a lot of value in terms of Flex (and we start 3 WR vs 2 RB) but it would certainly firm up my RB core. Moss was my late 1st round pick and I hate to sell top talent for depth.

  28. Drew

    Drew says:
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    @Matt B: I see what you’re saying but there’s a chance that this is the year where father time starts to catch up to Randy Moss. Is it just me or does he look 1 step slower this year? Either way Moss’s value is a lot higher in non-PPR b/c he is proporionately dominant in yards & TD’s. I’m not sure that the trade is a no-brainer but it’d be tough for me to turn down, even in a 3-WR league.

  29. flynn says:
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    drop Parker for D.Brown, Choice, or Buckhalter?

  30. Drew

    Drew says:
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    @flynn: is Parker the only guy you can afford to drop? I like Buckhalter the most of that group right now.

  31. flynn says:
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    I have Earl Bennett, Addai, Leon Washington also on my bench. I was thinking of dropping Bennett for Laurent Robinson though.

  32. Dad says:
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    @Drew: @Doc: I’ve got an antsy MJD owner who’s already emailing me to “get rid of him for 1 or 2 of my players.”

    I’m new to fantasy football, but not to new to the beauty of 2-for-1 trades in baseball. So, i was thinking of Driver+Kevin Smith or Fred Jackson+Driver or Steve Smith (NYG) for MJD. I’m thinking that won’t do it, but are they worth offers?

    Here’s a few others on my squad if you have a better idea or if i should try a 1-for-1. RB’s: LT, L Johnson WR: Moss, Harvin

  33. Drew

    Drew says:
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    Fred Jackson + Randy Moss? He might actually bite on some of your previous offers. You’d be surprised sometimes at what ppl will accept.

  34. Dad says:
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    @Dad: @Drew: True, i’ll start low and probably end at your suggestion. I’m very thin at WR so i was hoping to keep Moss, but i guess you have to give to get. For what it’s worth, it’s a non-ppr league.

    Thanks for the quick feedback. One more quick one, put in a waiver for Choice or Forsett and give up J Davis? I’d like to hold on to him, but it’s a 5 RB limit so to get either of those two, i’d have to drop him.

  35. Drew

    Drew says:
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    @Dad: non-PPR makes giving up Moss tougher. hmm…..

  36. Joe B says:
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    @Drew/Doc: Need some WR depth… want to add Manningham. Need to drop a RB. Drop M Bell (I have P Thomas), D Brown, W McGahee, or F Jackson???

  37. Drew says:
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    @Joe B: lose Bell, it won’t cost you

  38. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Doc: @Drew:got a guy wanting gates,how about my gates,coffee and clayton for his colston miller and bradshaw(i own jacobs

  39. Drew says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: pull the trigger man that is a great deal for you

  40. Dixon says:
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    Drop Antonio Bryant or James Davis for Justin Forsett or Ted Ginn? I like Forsett’s upside since the past 2 weeks, he’s been running and catching everything, though Hasselback is gone now.

  41. Eric C. says:
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    Drop San Diego’s defense for New Orleans or Arizona?

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