Getting Defensive With Defensive Line

For some, the defense is an afterthought in fantasy football circles (unless you are playing IDP).  Even if your fantasy league doesn’t employ defenses, knowing a defense’s weakness or strength can help you when choosing your roster.  To paraphrase the best offense is to know your defenses

Did you know that quarterbacks and wide receivers beat their expected fantasy points when playing against 3-4 defenses more often than not?  And I know you know that it was a spectacular defensive play that ended Joe Burrow’s and the Cincinnati Bengals’ hopes in Super Bowl LVI.

Now it is early, there has been plenty of movement in defenses so those that have been good last season may see a dip in production this season.  And those that were not so great last season (yes, I am looking at you Washington) could see a resurgence this season with players coming back from injuries, a particularly good draft, or even a fresh new coaching change. 

So, let’s check out the defensive line stats from last year and see if teams will be expected to rise up or go down.

 

2021 Rushing Yards per Game Allowed/ Third Down Conversions

NAME	RUSHING YARDS/GAME	RANK		NAME	3D DOWN CONVERSIONS %	RANK
BALTIMORE RAVENS	84.5	#1		BUFFALO	30.8%	#1
TENNESSEE TITANS	84.6	#2		DALLAS COWBOYS	34.1%	#2
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	92.5	#3		BALTIMORE RAVENS	34.8%	#3
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	93.5	#4		MINNESOTA VIKINGS	36.4%	#4
CINCINNATI BENGALS	102.5	#5		NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	36.5%	#5
LOS ANGELES RAMS	103.2	#6		TENNESSEE TITANS	36.7%	#6
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	103.5	#7		PITTSBURGH STEELERS	37.1%	#7
WASHINGTON	104.4	#8		NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	37.1%	#8
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	107.9	#9		CAROLINA PANTHERS	37.8%	#9
GREEN BAY PACKERS	109.1	#10		ARIZONA CARDINALS	38.2%	#10
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	109.1	#11		CHICAGO BEARS	38.4%	#11
CLEVELAND BROWNS	109.2	#12		TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	38.5%	#12
BUFFALO BILLS	109.8	#13		CLEVELAND BROWNS	39.3%	#13
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	146.1	#32		LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	49.5%	#32

 

CHH…CHH…CHANGES

First, the third down conversion percentage should be particularly interesting to those whose fantasy leagues are awarding extra points to players who gain third downs.

Then there are the rushing yards versus your running backs. 

The top-10 teams versus the run have not made any coaching changes.  Team #11 against the run, the Indianapolis Colts (109.1), will be without their defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, who is not the head coach in Chicago.

It is a different story for the top-10 teams stopping the third downs. Minnesota has a new head coach Kevin O’Connell and a new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell.  New Orleans defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is now the head coach in the Big Easy so that continuity may remain.  The Chicago Bears head coach Eberflus (formerly the Indianapolis defensive coordinator) hired Alan Williams as his defensive coordinator.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who were last in rushing yards allowed, have promoted Teryl Austin to defensive coordinator with Keith Butler’s retirement.

The former Denver Broncos, defensive backs coach will be the defensive coordinator in Los Angeles for the Chargers in hopes of shutting down teams on third down.

HIT THE ROAD JACK….

A few defensive free agent changes that matter:

• JC Jackson, Cornerback, left New England Patriots and signed with Los Angeles Chargers
• Marcus Williams, Safety, left New Orleans Saints and signed with Baltimore Ravens
• Za’Darius Smith, DE/OLB, left Green Bay Packers, and signed with Minnesota Vikings
• Von Miller, DE/OLB, left Los Angeles Rams and signed with Buffalo Bills
• DJ Reed, Cornerback, left Seattle Seahawks and signed with New York Jets
• Stephon Gilmore, Cornerback, left Carolina Panthers and signed with Indianapolis Colts
• Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, left Arizona Cardinals, and signed with Las Vegas Raiders
• Justin Reid, Safety, left Houston Texans and signed with Kansas City Chiefs
• Marcus Maye, Safety, left New York Jets and signed with New Orleans Saints
• Bobby Wagner, Linebacker, left Seattle Seahawks and signed with Los Angeles Rams
• Tyrann Mathieu, Safety, left Kansas City Chiefs and signed with New Orleans Saints

 

Who…What and When?

Teams Allowing the Fewest Average Rushing rds/Game 2021Ya

2022 Week 1 Match-Ups

• Baltimore Ravens v Michael Carter/ Breece Hall
• Tennessee Titans v Saquon Barkley
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard
• New Orleans Saints v Cordarrelle Patterson
• Los Angeles Rams v Devin Singletary/James Cook
• San Francisco Niners v David Montgomery
• Washington v Travis Etienne Jr.
• Philadelphia Eagles v D’Andre Swift
• Green Bay Packers v Dalvin Cook
• Indianapolis Colts v Marlon Mack
• Cleveland Browns v Christian McCaffrey
• Buffalo Bills v Cam Akers

5 Defenses Allowing the Most Average Rushing Yards Per Game 2021

2022 Week 1 Matchup

32. Pittsburgh Steelers v Joe Mixon

31. Houston (142.2 yards allowed) v Jonathan Taylor

30. LAC (138.9 yards allowed) v Josh Jacobs

29. NY Jets ( 138.3 yards allowed) v JK Dobbins

28. Detroit (135.1 yards allowed) v Miles Sanders

 

CONCLUSION

Defenses matter, but you knew that already.  So, whether you are drafting a defense (or defensive player), your DFS lineups and your season-long roster moves depend on you knowing the most exploitable defenses and those, if possible, you should avoid.