As I write this, I am also preparing for my first fantasy draft of the season. I have been studying projections and ADPs, creating tiers and notes in the app I use to draft, and going over the different draft scenarios and strategies in my head. And there is one thing I keep coming back to when I start going over the different scenarios for quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill is going to be a competent QB2 this year.

Before you make the gas face and move on to Googling pictures of Ryan Tannehill’s wife (no judgment here, Google knows):

Clipboard01

Or go back to mock drafting or whatever else you do with your life with only a week left until real football, hear me out. Ryan Tannehill is not an elite Quarterback. I am not going to try and convince you that he is or that you should make him your QB1. All I am saying is that, depending on how things fall for you in your draft, you could do worse than waiting for Tannehill in the later rounds. Stats, please!

[graphiq id=”iG5S1iVxoGh” title=”Ryan Tannehill Career Passing Stats” width=”800″ height=”377″ url=”https://w.graphiq.com/w/iG5S1iVxoGh” link=”http://football-players.pointafter.com/l/20248/Ryan-Tannehill” link_text=”Ryan Tannehill Career Passing Stats | PointAfter”]

 

Pretty much what you might expect, or possibly better than you might expect for a guy who is widely considered to be meh. Right now, his ADP is around 130 overall and in the 21-25 range for QBs, which puts him as either one of the last QB2s taken or undrafted in most leagues. And that is the beauty of drafting Ryan Tannehill—you can wait for him. Of course, you can wait for him for a reason. Most people consider him to be, uh, not good (see “meh,” above).

This year’s Razzball Fantasy Football Projections (which I highly recommend checking out before or during your drafts) have him as the 18th QB (17th now that Tony Romo is on the shelf again), with these projections:

Pass Yards Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Atts Rush Yards Rush TDs
4102 25 15 46 193 1

That puts him right around Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan territory, and I would bet anything that both Stafford and Ryan get drafted before Tannehill in your league. Plus, you could make the case (in fact, that is what I am doing in this article!) that Ryan Tannehill’s numbers might be a little bit better than this, if all goes well. And you could also argue (here we go again) that Matthew Stafford’s numbers could dip even further now that he will be without Calvin Johnson for a full season.

2016 might be Ryan Tannehill’s final chance to prove that he can be a franchise quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. The current regime has no loyalty to him, and his cap hit doubles next year while his dead cap number is cut in half (read: they can cut or trade him if they don’t think he is their guy for the future). While it is not a contract year in the truest sense, where a player on the verge of free agency balls out for a year just to get paid, it might as well be. He still has plenty of guaranteed money coming his way, but he is going to have to step up his game if he wants to earn the full amount of his $77 Million contract over the next few years, whether it be in Miami or somewhere else.

As far as the projected stats go, I think we could see a bit more from Tannehill. I agree with the passing yards of just over 4,000, but I think he will throw for 30 TDs and rush for a few hundred yards and a few TDs in Adam Gase’s offense. The loss of Lamar Miller in the offseason means that they will likely rely more heavily on Ryan Tannehill and the passing game, even with the addition of Arian Foster.

Adam Gase is hailed as a quarterback guru, and some analysts are pointing to that when predicting an uptick in Tannehill’s numbers this year. But I think there is another reason to be optimistic about him: tempo. In addition to installing his offense in Miami, Gase has also stressed running a more up-tempo style. Regardless of what that means for real life NFL strategy, what it means for fantasy football is more plays. And more plays equals more stats. And more stats equals more points. And more points equals, OK, enough, you get it. It’s a good thing. Anyone who drafted Chip Kelly offensive players in the past knows that an up-tempo offense can do wonderful things for offensive stats (and terrible things for defensive stats, but, you know…)

Image result for not my problem mr chow

If Gase can’t get the best out of Tannehill, maybe no one can. But even the Tannehill from years past should put up better numbers this year. So grab yourself a QB1 not named Ryan Tannehill earlier in the draft, draft some WR and RB depth, and know that you can wait to grab Tannehill after the Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Fitzpatrick run is over. Unless someone else in your league also reads this article and adopts that strategy, then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

 

If you want to talk fantasy football or have players you want me to feature, hit me up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment here. I’ll be doing the handcuff report once the season begins. P.S. You should check out Razzball’s new draft tool: 2016 Fantasy Football War Room.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @mikeMaher:

      The spot has been filled.

  1. E says:
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    Thoughts on my team? 1ppr

    QB – Brady / Rivers
    Wr – Hopkins
    Wr – Jeremy maclin
    Wr – Jordan mathews
    RB – devonta Freeman
    RB – lesean McCoy
    Te – Gates
    Flex – D woodhead

    Bn – Torrey smith
    Bn – Sammie Coates
    Bn – tevin Coleman
    Bn – jerrick McKinnon

    Thanks

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @E:

      I like it. Good top end talent and good depth. I think Torrey Smith could have a good year in Chip Kelly’s offense.

  2. Nick says:
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    Hi Mike,

    weird question, but not so…

    would you go Amary Cooper ahead of Brandon Marshall in a keeper draft?
    Marshall WR9 (epsn) WR7 (Y!) WR15(Tehol)
    Cooper WR14 (espn) WR16 (Y!) WR 16 (Tehol)
    and in Jay’s dynasty ranking , Cooper WR6 vs Marshall WR26

    SO, why isn’t that weir after all? Because Tehol is not so freaky ! and my new friend Jay is [email protected] right !
    Marshall 33 years old soon with hip concern
    Cooper youngster ready to explode in an Derek Carr-octane-fueled Oakland offense !

    drafting tonite!
    Nick

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Nick:

      Amari Cooper in a keeper league 100 times out of 100.

      • Nick says:
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        @mikeMaher:

        you rule :)
        i’ll let you know

  3. Son

    Son says:
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    I’m with you Mike. I think Tanny is undervalued as well.

  4. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    I think the ADP can be a bit misleading in this case because it might imply you have to actually draft him at his ADP. But what’s his own%? Like you said,I would think he often doesn’t get drafted at all. Seems like a good player to take in the 3rd to last round and if he doesn’t end up being there just take the guy with the best matchup week 1.

    Speaking of week 1 matchups, I’m not even sure if Tannehill is usable in week 1 due to him playing at Seattle, I think.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @RotoLance:

      Yeah. That is why I tried to make it clear that he should be considered a QB2 only and is a guy you can wait for if there is a run on QBs if you are still focused on adding depth at other positions. If a Philip Rivers falls to you late, then, by all means, grab him instead.

      But the real point on Tannehill is that, if you want to, you can wait until near the end of the draft to grab him as a pretty good QB2. While other guys are reaching for Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan as their QB2, you can add a good bench WR or RB instead.

      • mikeMaher

        mikeMaher says:
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        @mikeMaher:

        He went in the last round of my 10 team league and in the 10th round of my 14 team league over the weekend.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @mikeMaher: Right so you wouldn’t be concerned with starting him week 1 cuz you just play the other guy, who is probably a low end QB1 or high end QB2.

        I just don’t like to own 2 QBs so I’d rather Tannehill be my QB1, just not for week 1. And I think the QBs that at this time of year ranked anywhere from 10ish to 25ish, we have no idea where they will stand as far as rankings at the end of the year. So hard to predict which ones will have the good years. I think that’s the other argument to be made for Tanny or any of the guys taken later.

        Do you know much about Dak?

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @RotoLance: Cam Newton was taken as a QB2 in last years Writer’s RCL. No kidding. Like I guess some of the people taking late round QBs thought their guy was better than Cam. So that’s just to say these things are hard to predict. I took Wilson at 66.

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @RotoLance:

          Yeah, agreed.

          Dak is certainly a wild card. I would not want to rely on him solely as my QB1 (someone in our 14 team league drafted kickers and defenses before taking any QBs, then drafted Dak and Jimmy Garappolo in the last two rounds), but he has looked good and has some real weapons in that offense.

          I think he’ll have some rookie bumps in the road but might put up some good numbers. Hard to really guage him so far, and he has been a polarizing topic in the preseason.

  5. Brian says:
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    coming up on my last pick in my dynasty draft. 16 team PPR. start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 2 w/r/t flex, 1 te. have tyrod, rg3, julio jones, demaryius, mike floyd, torrey, martavis, stills, tyrell williams, seth roberts, leveon, hyde, cja, james white, draughn, gronk. looking to grab either another rb or back up TE. TE is pretty barren (donnell and brate are the best ones out there) so think i may go rb. of these, who would you go with…kenjon barner, smallwood, kadeem carey, terrance west, josh ferguson, zenner, burkhead. Would you go TE or RB? And which player would you ultimately draft?

    Thanks.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Brian:

      The Eagles like Smallwood and raved about him early, but he has been hurt most of the preseason so he is really an unknown. Barner has had a good preseason, but in Philly he will likely just be returning a few kicks and occasionally spelling Mathews, Sproles, and Smallwood. Not sure how many touches either one will get unless there is an injury.

      I think I go with West or Burkhead, but all of those names are really rolls of the dice that will only provide significant value if there is an injury.

  6. omar says:
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    Thoughts on this trade. 12 team 1pt PPR:

    Give:
    Gronk
    Edelman
    Forte

    Get:
    Julio
    Lat Murray

    Eifert is on the wire. Would mix and match waiver wire best available TE based on matchups until his return. Too much to give up for Julio?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @omar:

      Ehhhh, it’s close, but I don’t like giving up 3 to get 2 in this case, even if one of the 2 is Julio. Gronk is easily the top TE and puts up WR numbers, and Edelman is great in PPR leagues. Even though I like Murray more than Forte, I don’t think I would give up Gronk and Edelman to get Julio back.

      • omar says:
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        @mikeMaher:

        Thanks for the input. How do you feel about this one:

        Give:
        Gronk
        Forte
        Snead

        Get:
        Julio
        Rawls

        The Eifert/WW TE situation is still in play. I currently own Christine Michael, so that would lock down the Seattle RB (other RB’s are Woodhead & Duke Johnson).

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @omar:

          I like that one better.

  7. Rondo says:
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    How you ranking them in a .5PPR after all of the news the last 3 weeks (Teddy out, Romo down, Green knee tweak, Bell 3 games out, etc.,)?

    A.J. Green
    Elliot
    Peterson
    Bell
    Bryant
    K. Allen
    J. Charles

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Rondo:

      For me, it would probably be Green (assuming he is fine like it seems he is), Peterson, Bryant, Elliot, Bell, Charles, Allen.

      Those are all 1st/2nd round guys regardless, though.

      • Rondo says:
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        @mikeMaher: There is one more wrinkle to this. My keepers are Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. We can start 4WR and are only required to start 1RB.

        If Green is NOT available, do I still go AP or grab a WR since 4 can be started?

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @Rondo:

          I would probably go WR in that scenario.

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