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Week 14 Offenders

Raheem Mostert / Matt Breida

San Fransisco 49ers

For a second week in a row Raheem Mostert dominated offensive snaps for the 49ers running back room, logging 73.7% (wk13) and 59.7% (wk14) snap share. Tevin Coleman ranked 3rd on the team in RB snap share following Matt Breida’s return from injury. Raheem handled 12 touches, over Breida’s 7 and Coleman’s 3. I’m not sure if Coleman is injured or Mostert and Breida are clearly the better option. Regardless, you can’t trust Coleman starting in any format for week 15 and most likely 16. Tevin is an easy drop candidate for the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Raheem Mostert has vaulted himself into weekly flex territory with RB1/2 upside in Shanahan’s RB friendly offense. Breida is worth a bench stash after averaging 9.0 yards per carry in week 14 and looking spry in his return. If you’re desperate, Breida would be a low end flex play against Atlanta. Breida is always capable of ripping a big run, but he is a better bench stash to see if his snaps and usage increase in week 15. Keep in mind, there is always a risk with starting a RB in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, we could easily see Tevin Coleman lead in snaps in week 15 if he were to start with the hot hand. Based off recent trends, that is the least likely scenario with Coleman averaging 3rd-string-worthy 2.1 yards per carry over his previous four games played.  

Deandre Washington / Jalen Richard

Oakland Raiders

Deandre Washington handled lead duties on Sunday, Josh Jacobs was inactive with a fractured shoulder, and is currently RB8 in week 14 (pending Monday Night Football).  If you’ve been following along all season, Jacob owners already have Washington and were prepared for this situation. Washington dominated on the ground, 14 carries to Richards 7, and surprisingly in the passing game over Richard, 6 receptions (7 targets) to Jalens 2 rec (3 tgts). Oaklands offense ranks 8th in the league in rushing attempts per game and is a backfield worth investing in for fantasy. The Raiders have juicy matchups against Jacksonville (week 15) and the Chargers (week 16), making Washington a weekly RB2/3 with RB1 upside for as long as Josh Jacobs remains sidelined. Both Jaguars and Chargers rank top 10 in most fantasy points allowed to the running back position. A MRI this week will reveal the severity of Jacobs shoulder and if the Raiders are best to shut him down for the remainder of the season. Jalen Richard will be a low end flex play only in deeper PPR leagues if Jacobs were to miss any time. Washington is worth top waiver priority and FAAB budget for those seeking running back production during their playoff run.

Dion Lewis

Tennesse Titans

Derrick Henry carried an injury designation and was a limited participant early last week with a hamstring injury. He practiced in full on Friday and was fully removed from the injury report heading into Sunday’s matchup. During the game, Henry exited multiple times and had his hamstring attended to by trainers but still produced his typical Nov/Dec stat line – 18 carries – 103 yards – 2 TDs. Hamstring injuries tend to linger and grabbing Dion Lewis is an insurance policy Henry owners need to buy in to. Dion Lewis recorded his season high in touches and nearly on the field for 40% of the teams offensive snaps (38.7%). Lewis hold little-to-no value for non-Henry owners for as long as Derrick chooses to power through his hammy. If Henry goes down, Lewis catapults into weekly RB2/3 status in an offense that ranks 10th in the league in rushing attempts per game (27.1 att/g). 

Patrick Laird

Miami Dolphins

Lairds favorable matchups in week 15 (NYG) and 16 (CIN) are the only reason he’s worth taking up word count. With Kalen Ballage placed on injured reserve, Laird has little competition for lead duties in an offense that ranks dead last in rushing attempts per game. Patrick was on the field for 81% of Miami’s offensive snaps, recording 15 carries for 48 yards and 4 receptions on 5 targets for 38 yards. Pending MNF, Laird is a top 20 fantasy scoring PPR back with two favorable matchups remaining in the fantasy playoffs. It is playing with fire to start Laird in season long formats, but worth consideration for those still alive and searching for running back production. Laird should be viewed as a RB3/flex play and only viable in PPR leagues. 

Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Derrius Guice left Sunday’s matchup against the Redskins with another apparent leg injury that looked to be season ending. Chris Thompson only trailed Adrian Peterson by two snaps, 26 to 28, and racked up all of the RB receiving work for Washington. Thompson finished the game with 7 receptions on 8 targets for 43 yards, totaling 11.3 PPR points and ranking RB24 for week 14 (pending MNF). Adrain Peterson is still slated to handle early down and goal line work with Guice sidelined, but Thompson makes for an intriguing option in PPR formats with the Redskins offense expected to play from behind. Albeit, a low ceiling in one of the worst offenses in the league, but a floor that is easy to envision double digit PPR points the remainder of the season. I’m not wasting top wavier priority or FAAB budget for this add, but he is worth the consideration on waiver wire Wednesday. 

Under Surveillance

Ty Montgomery / Bilal PowellNYJ – As expected, Bilal Powell dominated snaps and touches with Le’Veon Bell sidelined with an illness. Powell was reported to have left the game on a medical cart heading for x-rays on his foot. If Bell’s illness is from going out with Sam Darnold and Powell’s foot injury knocks him out, Ty Montgomery could be thrusted into lead duties for NYJ. Bell’s illness has not been reported as mono or anything serious, do not waste top waiver priority or FAAB budget on either Powell or Montgomery unless we hear otherwise. Bell owners will still want to make an effort to acquire Powell for insurance down the fantasy playoff stretch. Even if Bell is at risk of missing another week, both matchups against Baltimore (wk 15) and Pittsburgh (wk16) would be fade spots for this Jets backfield. 

David JohnsonARI – Johnson still played second fiddle to Kenyan Drake on Sunday, recording only 22 snaps (36.7%) to Drakes 39 (65%), but it was nice to see Johnson show some life in this offense. DJ found himself on the receiving end of long TD-pass from Kyler Murray, putting him as the leading PPR scoring fantasy back out of Arizona with 13.3 points. Both Drake and Johnson are hard to trust in starting lineups in an offense that ranks 8th in fewest rushing attempts per game, but Johnson is worth monitoring to see if his usage and snaps increase in week 15. 

Getting Released

Jonathan WilliamsIND – With Marlon Mack back in the fold, Jonathan Williams failed to record a single snap in week 14. Nyheim Hines actually lead all Colts running backs on Sunday in snaps, 35 Hines – 26 Mack – 9 Wilkins, but it was Mack that handled all of the touches. Williams can easily be released to waivers.

Brian HillATL – Hill did find the end zone on Sunday and finished with 12 PPR points, but remove the touchdown and Hill is an afterthought in Freemans return. Brian Hill found the field for less than 20% of the Falcons offensive snaps while Devonta Freeman dominated with 66.7%. If you own Freeman, it would be wise to roster Brian Hill as an insurance policy. But for non-Freeman owners, it’s safe to drop Hill. 

 

As always, leave your lineup questions below or you can @ me on twitter. Good luck in week 15!

 

  1. James Bolger says:
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    Nic:
    A couple of critical lineup decisions for Week 15:

    1. Start Jameis Winston over Aaron Rodgers despite hand injury?
    2. Sit Odell Beckham & replace with Kareem Hunt or James White?

    Thanks.

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      in on winston.

      id rank them OBJ > Hunt > White. NE playing CIN, don’t expect a high scoring affair. hunts ceiling is always capped with Chubb in the picture even though he is getting consistent usage and safe floor in PPR. ARI / CLE should be a faster paced game, OBJ has the biggest ceiling in my opinion.

      good luck and thanks for the comment.

  2. Mikey says:
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    Do I dare start Washington and Mostert over Kamara and Ingram? What about Tannehill or Garrapola over Watson?

  3. Nic Romero

    Nic Romero says:
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    hard to fade Tannehill with how hot he’s been, but Im going Watson. just have to look at whats most likely to happen. can we really trust Ryan Tannehill in the playoff semifinals? Houston has little to no run game, and likes to pass the ball. we can expect a high pass volume from Watson and he has the best rushing upside of three QBs listed. Tannehill has shown spurts of his rushing abilities but he’s not the same caliber athlete as watson. Titans will continue to run the rock, they rank towards the top of the league in rush att/g and their passing game close to the bottom in pass attempts per game. Tannehill has been extremely effecient, to the point where it’s debatable if its sustainable. Garopolo pops in Rudys model this weekend as QB4, followed by watson at QB9 and tannehill QB14. i just think Tannehill has the most risk of flopping. SF is a run first team as well and Jimmy has the least amount of rushing upside of the three.

    in PPR its hard for me to stomach sitting kamara for either washington or mostert. if josh jacobs is 100% OUT then i actually like washington. if we dont have a definitive answer on jacobs then im okay rolling with Ingram. can’t trust SF backfield, and you have enough options that you dont have to put yourself in that situation.

    good luck and thanks for the comment!

    • Mikey says:
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      Thank you for your insight, Nic. I really like Washington as I don’t think Jacobs will be a go. I’d want to protect my best player but it’s the Raiders so you never know. Mostert has risk and his floor isn’t close to Kamara, but my #1 pick has been so underwhelming. If I didn’t have a first round bye I would have lost, mostly because of Kamara’s performance.

      I’m sure you’re starting Kamara over Ingram, right? The Jets defense makes me a little nervous because they’re pretty good against the run. I also like that both players are playing in prime time. Well, I have until tomorrow night to make a decision.

      Thanks again, Nic.

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        looks like NFLs Ian Rapoport says Jacobs might be 100% a go on Sunday. a quick turn of events. i know its hard to rely on Kamara again but he was on the field for 75% of the teams offensive snaps, compared to Mostert 59%. Ingram was 55%.

        with the Jacobs news im going Kamara for sure, and then between Ingram/Mostert. SF HC Shanahan was quoted this week saying that Mostert has forced the coaching staff to play him and use him more. i think mostert has the highest upside between him and Ingram, but i could easily see BAL getting out ahead of NYJ early and just running the clock out. ATL/SF has the chance of being a higher scoring game/shootout compared to BAL/NYJ. so if you’re looking for the higher ceiling then go Mostert over Ingram.

        • Mikey says:
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          Another wrinkle….I also have Jacobs. Would you start Jacobs over Mostert/Ingram? I hear you with Kamara. Would you start one of Mostert/Ingram over Devante Parker (if cleared of course) or Pascal? I feel if Parker is cleared he’s my guy – love the upside – but leaning Mostart if he’s out. Decisions decisions…Thank you for your insights.

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