Let’s get right to the point: don’t be afraid to take whoever you want at the top of the draft. OK, don’t be afraid within reason. You’re not winning your league with Miles Sanders as the 1.01 pick (curse me if it happens this year). But personally, I see people feel trapped when they get the 1.01 pick: they get Christian McCaffrey, or Dalvin Cook. OK, that’s not a bad start, right? But why not Jonathan Taylor or Alvin Kamara or Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones or, or, or? Why do we as a fantasy community argue about “Can Jonathan Taylor be the RB1?” Yes, yes he can! Last year, the top 3 RBs came from the 4th, 5th, and 6th draft spots (Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook). In 2019, the top 4 RBs came from the 2nd, 4th, 28th, and 58th draft spots. In 2018, the top 3 RBs came from the 1st, 6th, and 15th draft spots. You see my point, right? The consensus RB1 doesn’t really matter. And the only reason you should concern yourself with the consensus RB1 is if you’re drafting in only one league, which is rarer and rarer in modern fantasy football. Let’s dive into the stats after the jump.
Imagine it’s 2020, and you were so lucky to enter 10 drafts and you landed the 1.01 and 1.02 spots in all of them. Of course, you draft by consensus ADP because that’s what you’re supposed to do, right? Who would ever think of not taking Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01 or 1.02? So, in your hypothetical 2020 leagues, you ended up with 5 instances of McCaffrey, and 5 instances of Saquon Barkley. You think you’re diversified, right? Except that by the end of the year, you accumulated all of 260 rushing yards combined with those players. Now, how much cash did you spend on those teams? Did you cash or claim a championship? Probably not. In fact, those rosters would likely have a 96% failure rate in 2020. This neat little tool I found online says that our hypothetical McCaffrey/Barkley fantasy footballer would have had a combined 4% chance of claiming the championship across those teams. Given that the average manager in a 12-team league has an 8.3% chance of making the playoffs at the start of the year (100%/12=8.33%), the unfortunate 1.01 / 1.02 start would have given our hypothetical manager a 50% worse chance of making the championship than just randomly choosing another top RB.
Of course, had our hypothetical manager drafted Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, or Alvin Kamara, those odds of claiming a championship would have jumped into the 20% territory. Taking these players would have doubled the likelihood that a team made the championship. Thus, the importance of diversification across leagues. If you take the same player on every team in every league — and that player gets injured — then you’re Straight Outta Luck. But how many managers consider it “smart process” (in 2020) to take Dalvin Cook 1.01? Cook made it to the 2nd round of my Scott Fish Bowl tournament last year because people were afraid of his contract situation. I was regularly picking up Henry with the 7th pick.
I’ll block this out because it’s important: ADP is a trap. ADP measures the consensus market value of players across many different formats, and by August, ADP often factors in many low-quality drafts from players who don’t do research, or the weird scoring systems like the Scott Fish Bowl (and with 2,000 players in the Fish Bowl, that weighs heavy on the draft market). ADP should not be your draft board. Your draft board should be your draft board.
Because the current consensus top fantasy football players are all running backs, and because running backs are much more likely to get injured, and another because replacement running backs are so hard to find, the modern fantasy footballer needs to look beyond “consensus” in ADP.
Just because everybody else is taking Christian McCaffrey at 1.01 doesn’t mean that you need to do that too. In fact, you’re probably playing in multiple leagues this year, right? Especially if you’re cranking those Underdog best ball drafts, right? Of course, your only exposure to a player like McCaffrey may come from drafting at the 1.01. But if you’re somehow gifted at getting early picks (and me, in particular, I’m gifted at getting late picks), you will want to diversify your selection of top running backs in order to prevent over-exposure to a RB who might get injured.
And even if you’re amped to be doing only 1 home league, it’s worth noting that since 2017, the consensus 1.01 by ADP (all running backs) has never finished as the top running back. Let’s quickly recap for those who don’t spend their nights thinking about this stuff:
- 2017: 1.01 by ADP = David Johnson
- Actual finish for David Johnson in 2017: RB120 (played 1 game)
- 2018: 1.01 by ADP = Todd Gurley
- Actual finish for Todd Gurley in 2018: RB3 (behind Saquon Barkley [ADP=6] and Christian McCaffrey [ADP 15]).
- 2019: 1.01 by ADP = Saquon Barkley
- Actual finish for Saquon Barkley in 2019: RB10 (behind Christian McCaffrey [ADP=2] and Austin Ekeler [ADP=58]
- 2020: 1.01 by ADP = Christian McCaffrey
- Actual finish for Christian McCaffrey in 2020: RB51
So, in the last four years, only Todd Gurley came close to repaying his 1.01 draft capital, and even he was surpassed by RBs drafted later. Saquon performed admirably in 2019, although coming in 9 spots lower than his ADP isn’t thrilling, especially when late draft picks out-perform him.
What should one do when drafting at the 1.01 or 1.02, then? Well, I recommend considering the RB1-5 group (McCaffrey, Cook, Henry, Kamara, and Taylor) as a tier, and choose one of those guys. No, you won’t be wrong in your choice, as long as you’re following a process. You can see that somebody from the top RB tier regularly finishes as the RB1; it’s just that recently, it’s never been the consensus RB1. Will the consensus RB1 finish as RB1 eventually? Yes, all things come with time.
The truth is: All of those players in the 2021 RB1 tier have about an equal chance to finish as the RB1 when the season finishes if they stay equally healthy. Your process should just focus on which RBs have the ability to hit that high ceiling. Rudy would point to McCaffrey’s massive usage as making CMC king of the proverbial 1.01 hill, but I might point to Kamara’s efficiency and unknown game script. But we’re both following a sound process, just with different pathways. Neither of us is wrong; we’re just using the data to speak in different ways.
So as you get to drafting at the 1.01 in your home league, think about what your process will be. Will you take Christian McCaffrey, knowing that history isn’t quite on your side? Will you be bold and take Jonathan Taylor? Will you aim for efficiency with Alvin Kamara? And more importantly…who will you take in rounds 2 and 3 to support your round 1 choice? These are the games of chess I leave to you, young scholar. In the meantime, I’ll be hanging out in the Razzball Jacuzzi waiting for your results.
