2014 Accuracy: 57.00% (3rd out of 20 Experts, Range: 58.40% – 48.10%).

After months and months of analysis, mock drafts, and ultimately the actual draft, it’s finally time to set your Week 1 lineup. There is nothing more alternately exciting and terrifying as having to make the choice between two players that you valued similarly at draft time. The rankings below will hopefully help make some of those choices, but given that this is the first week of actual football, the best plan is to keep things simple. Typically, the guy you drafted first is the guy you want to start this week. There will obviously be exceptions to that rule, mostly due to injuries or suspensions, but don’t overthink matchups at this point. Basing lineup decisions around matchups is difficult for IDPs in general, and even more so when all we have is training camp and preseason games to analyze. Instead, the goal is to simply get as many snaps for your guys as possible. I tend to play things safe in Week 1, going with someone I know will at least get me some points instead of a guy who could potentially throw up a goose egg and contribute to an 0-1 start…


Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

Here are some situations I’ll be monitoring this week:

Jason Pierre-Paul – I feel like I discuss him in every post, but he’s the player with the largest range of outcomes in the IDP world. After their meeting this week, JPP walked away without signing his franchise tender, which is a bad sign. There is talk that he’ll miss the entire season, and while I hope that isn’t the case, there hasn’t been any good news coming out of this situation. I would temper expectations even more, if that’s even possible.

Dontari Poe – There have been several reports that Poe could play on Sunday against Houston, which is encouraging news for anyone who drafted him late. But original reports had him missing the first month of the season, and while I have to assume that Poe is working his ass off to get back on the field, the Chiefs are likely going to be conservative about his playing time. Nose tackle is a tough enough position to play when you’re 100%, so coming off back surgery, Poe likely won’t get his usual snap count until October at the earliest.

Vontaze Burfict – The Bengals finally made the decision to put Burfict on the PUP list this week, and it’s a continuation of one of the most frustrating situations in the IDP world. When healthy, Burfict has been in discussion for the #1 overall IDP, however he hasn’t been truly 100% in about two years. At least the PUP designation doesn’t have his owners wondering exactly how questionable he is, and hopefully it will lead to a full recovery for Burfict. Right now Vincent Rey is the man to own in Cincy, though Rey Maualuga and AJ Hawk could edge their way into the discussion as well.

Christian Jones – The LB situation in the Windy City is a well-documented mess. Cutting Mason Foster gives a little bit more clarity, but between Jones, Shea McClellin and Jon Bostic, there are still more questions than answers in the middle. At this point I prefer Jones, and I like his matchup against Green Bay, so he’s my biggest mover from the preseason rankings.

Jason McCourty – He still hasn’t been ruled out, but much like Poe above, I’m staying away from McCourty this week. Recovering from groin surgery and trying to keep up with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson just sounds like an all around bad idea to me. If he does play, he may be targeted more than usual, but there is also the risk of re-injury, which a team like the Titans can’t afford. I’d prefer guys like Peanut Tillman and Brent Grimes at corner.

Rookies – In general, I’m knocking rookies down a few notches this week. This isn’t a stellar IDP rookie class, and most of the guys who are ranked are only in the discussion due to situation and not talent. If at all possible, I’m going with known commodities (and higher floors) to ensure that I start my season out on the right foot. For every CJ Mosley, who hits the ground running from day one, there’s more than a few Calvin Pryors, who don’t find their footing until (hopefully) their second year.

Best of luck in Week 1!

 

 

You can follow Kevin on Twitter.

  1. Chicken Dinner says:
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    Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr will both be top 20 IDP when it’s all said and done.

    Mack top 10.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Chicken Dinner:

      There have been a lot of discussions about Mack moving to DE (where he’s already listed in OurLads). If that happens, he has top 10 potential for sure, but not at LB.

      I’m with you on Barr. Lots of mouths to feed in that Minny LB corps, but I’m consistently higher on him than most.

      • Chicken Dinner says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: I could see Mack getting 85tkl 15sck 2int as an LB.

  2. Troy says:
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    When you do the DL and DB columns, can you differentiate the DE/DT or CB/S like on the IDP columns? That would be helpful in leagues that are more specific in their roster settings.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Troy:

      We use FantasyPros as our ranking platform, and they don’t delineate between DT/DE or CB/S, which I’ve found to be pretty standard. If you have any specific questions, I’m more than happy to answer in the Comments though.

      • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: i wonder why, since their season ranks (not weekly) do show DT or DE, and CB or S, but sometimes their designations don’t line up with reality or ESPN/Yahoo either (but it’s rare), as they preseason showed hatcher WAS DE as if he was a DT.

        • Kevin Kumpf

          Kevin Kumpf says:
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          @Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge:

          I see what you mean, and I’m not sure either. On the IDP ranks it has the position, but not on the DL/LB/DB ranks. If I can figure out a way for those to show I will, but it doesn’t look doable from what I can see right now.

  3. J-FOH says:
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    I watched Leonard Williams a lot in college and I’ll be keeping an eye on him. He was constantly double teamed and still found a way to make plays with his talent. I’m stashing him, is that crazy? Also Im showing extra love to Aaron Donald, he looked great at the end last yer and hopefully all those other weapons around him frees him up to be a solid weekly DL2

    Great work again, hopefully once I get my nose out of baseball I can join the conversation over here

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @J-FOH:

      I love Williams’ talent, but wasn’t a fan of being drafted by NYJ. Richardson’s injury opens up an opportunity, obviously under less than ideal circumstances, but if he misses the year then Williams is a top 20 DL option. I’m also a huge fan of Donald, but there is also a lot of internal competition in St. Louis. As an internal lineman, his ceiling is already limited, so I can’t see him getting above that DL2 threshold, but he should certainly be able to hit it.

  4. Hellawaits says:
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    Nowwwww…..I know you said don’t overthink things but in my 16 team IDP league I need to start a CB and currently have Brent Grimes (faces WAS) slotted in. Butttttt….someone just dropped Ronald Darby on BUF. He is starting at home (generous scorekeepers in BUF) against the Colts who are very generous themselves when it comes to giving points opps to CBs and Darby is a rookie so you know they will be attacking him. So….I can pick him up and still keep Grimes but would you pull the sneaky move and start Darby over Grimes this week? Thanks.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Hellawaits:

      I can’t argue with your logic, but this is how I look at it. If you start Darby and he flops, while Grimes has a solid day, then you’ll be really pissed. If you start Grimes and he flops, while Darby has a nice day, then you can at least take pride in your thought process, while knowing that you played it safe.

      I don’t typically like to roster backup CBs, but if you have a feeling on Darby, then I have no issues with stashing him on the bench.

  5. Brett says:
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    What do we do w/ Eric Berry?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Brett:

      He obviously has a huge range of outcomes, which I typically try to avoid, but if he gets the majority of the snaps, he’s always been a stud. Not a ringing endorsement I know, but the KC secondary is still somewhat of a mystery.

  6. SH says:
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    Kevin , in my forever keeper no cap LB,LB,DB,DB FLEX .
    I have Dansby,S.Lee,Derrik Johnson, Burfict,T.Davis and Mayo on LB. My DB are Bethea,Mcdonald,Branch,W.Moore and R.Nelson.

    Would you drop any of my LB’s for Benardrick McKinney or Christian Jones.Also would you drop any of my DB’s for T.Mathieu or Searcy. Mainly looking to have the best trade assets for later in the season.thanks for your help.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @SH:

      I would drop Davis for McKinney. They might be close this year, but long term, McKinney is more valuable (and people love trading for successful rookies). Burfict is another option, but I’d prefer to hold him and hope he gets healthy.

      I like your DBs, but I’d prefer Mathieu over Moore and Nelson for sure. Again, because this is dynasty, I’d drop Nelson.

  7. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    now i see what you meant with lofton, what i didn’t realize is how high you are on him relatively anyway, even though he’s been moved down 6 or so LB spots. And i’m guessing m.smith OAK has been moved from not ranked by you to low LB status since he’s taking sio moore’s spot?

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: also, with burfict hitting PUP i had him as backup (reading before that he was only likely out 1-2 weeks), and have no IR slots. i have these are starters in 20 teamer with
      D quinn
      LB posluzny, lee
      DT donald
      DE c.jones
      S Cyprien
      CB parker, hall
      BN burfict
      options: p.brown (same bye as posluz though), anthony, e.kendricks.

      • Kevin Kumpf

        Kevin Kumpf says:
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        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow:

        Oakland’s LB situation has been a mess all summer. I’m curious to see how it looks with Moore gone and now that the games are real. My guess is that Lofton is two-down and Smith is three-down, and if that’s the case, they will likely be ranked essentially equal moving forward.

        Burfict is a tough one for sure, but you have great depth at LB, especially if the rookies look good.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Kevin Kumpf: i’ll go anthony for now. i might be able to grab p.brown over him if an injury happens to lee or posluzny

          • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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            @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: i just noticed you have rey quite high with burfict out, so all of p.brown (but with same bye as another guy of mine), anthony (who i just added over burfict), e.kendricks and rey are available. I’m guessing you don’t buy ourlads having rey as a backup either.

            • Kevin Kumpf

              Kevin Kumpf says:
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              @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow:

              Not sure what’s up with OurLads for Cincy, but all signs point to Rey taking over Burfict’s role. Maualuga and Hawk are looming, but Rey has the highest ceiling and should play three downs.

              I would hold the Anthony/Kendricks combo because at least one of them should be startable every week. I’m a big Brown fan, but he doesn’t have the pedigree as the two rookies do.

  8. billy beeeen says:
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    In my auction, I got Adam Jones (ret yds), Derrick Johnson and Terrell Suggs. Would you drop any for 1-2 of these…Cyprien, Timmons, TJMcDonald, JelaniJenkins, Weddle, KeenanRobinson?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @billy beeeen:

      Depending on how much you get for return yards, I’d drop both Jones and Suggs for Robinson and Timmons/Cyprien.

  9. DILinator says:
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    I essentially “punted” at the IDP positions in my Draft that features them this year, because they started getting taken WAY too early, and I still wanted to focus on my position players while everybody else was getting them. In the end, I took names I knew, vs. whomever the hot, young player might be.

    I just wondered what you thought of my season-starting collection, and where you think I might want to make a switch… 10 team, Re-Draft league. DT, DE, LB, CB, S, DP

    Sharrif Floyd (DT), Mario Williams (DE), Bobby Wagner (LB), Charles Tillman (CB), Reshad Jones (S), Sean Lee (DP).

    Based on your rankings, for this week at least, I have three Top 20 guys, which isn’t too shabby, I suppose…

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @DILinator:

      If that’s punting IDP, then you’re in pretty damn good shape. You’re weakest at DT and CB, but those are the least predictable positions in general, so it’s not a bad problem to have. I wouldn’t touch Mario/Wagner/Jones/Lee. For Floyd and Tillman, they’re both good plays to start the season, but if either falters or gets hurt then I wouldn’t hesitate to move on to the hot hand.

      • DILinator says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: Thanks for your feedback! Yeah, I felt pretty good about what I ended up with, for not making them a priority, but I wasn’t sure if maybe I’d missed something regarding guys like Williams and Jones since I got them so late along. I guess I just called it “punting”, since I didn’t focus it on as early as it seemed everybody else was. Glad to know I’m doing alright there though!

  10. Bobbyy says:
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    Howdy man!

    Need to pick one , we have a defensive player slot on our roster I always stream based on Sunday night football/Monday night football gives me something to watch lol

    Here are some options :

    Mychal kendricks (@ ATL & Matt Ryan & Falcons)

    Kiko Alonso (@ ATL & Matt Ryan & Falcons)

    Harrison smith (@ SF & kaepernick & niners)

    Everson Griffin (@ SF & kaepernick & niners)

    Navarro Bowman (vs Vikes & Bridgewater )

    Randy Gregory (vs Eli manning & Giants)

    Sean Lee (vs Eli manning & Giants)

    Thanks man

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Bobbyy:

      You can just use the IDP overall rankings for cases like this when there are no positional dependencies, but this week (and most weeks) I’d go with Bowman.

  11. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    same deep 20 team league. a weird thing happened, one team got mccoy/bailey/lower draft pick for higher draft pick/parkey/t.branch/d.freeman (the 2nd team is PHI and might have more value grabbing his own kicker), but then 2nd team immediately dropped branch. The team that got mccoy has 2nd waiver and this would look quite fishy if the first team waivers branch right back. 2 days ago Ron Parker was dropped. So Parker comes off waivers tonight, and Branch tomorrow night. My waiver isn’t high at 14.
    1. drop my roby for parker (early morning of the 12th)
    2. drop my byrd for branch (early morning of the 13th)
    Checking rankings made me drop the first one, since it seems making a small upgrade in CB isn’t as important as making a bigger one in S. But if a CB eligible guy (yahoo) that actually plays safety might be worth more? You of course have Branch a lot more spots above Parker than Fantasy pros (only 4 spots), but that is on a one to one basis, not accounting for CB vs S value if we have to play 2 of each.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow:

      I like Roby right now, especially in a CB slot, so I’d hold him for now. There’s uncertainty in KC’s secondary with Berry/Branch/Parker, so while I like all three, I’m not dying to own any of them until I see how the snaps shake out. That said, Byrd is out Week 1 and will be questionable for a few more weeks most likely, so I’m fine with dropping him for Branch.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: crap, i went with waivering parker, as i went off how both rankings have him higher than roby, and i read for sure he’s playing CB at least for now. also i figured there wasn’t much chance my waiver worked for branch tonight and i figured improvement somewhere is better than none. I do have the waiver in for branch, AND yahoo gives branch awful projections, likely going off of ourlads or another depth chart that has him as a backup currently. Although that same quote about parker being a S had branch as the other one currently. It’s likely the guy who dropped Parker and the other guy who dropped Branch knew about this instability thing. Good thing is if a lot of people in that league are doing the yahoo projections Parker and Roby are ranked CB 28 and 30 for this week (and CB 28, 26 for season), out of unowned guys, so he might still be there later. Also, yahoo gave Parker S since i typed the above message. I’m just trying to hoard up the best overall players at S (already have bucannon/collins, by rankings branch is nice jump up) and i’m guessing at worst even if Berry comes back to S opposite Branch the rookie peters would get bumped by Parker going back to CB? Yahoo is also buying Abdullah to have 9 more pts ROS than Berry and about 78 more than Branch. It’s buying the ourlads depth chart.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: ok, so apparently nobody in my league follows you or fantasy pros, but likely do follow yahoo projections, as my 20th waiver got branch too. Since both you and fantasy pros have them ranked branch/parker/berry i’m guessing parker is back playing CB then, even though all three are listed as S at least at fantasy pros (and yahoo gave him S yesterday). Interesting you are one of 3 out of 22 who have Branch over Bucannon this week at fantasy pros.

          • Kevin Kumpf

            Kevin Kumpf says:
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            @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow:

            The worst thing about Week 1 Rankings are situations like KC’s safeties or Chicago’s LBs. The only real info we get are from coaches, who may not even have their minds made up, let alone giving the media actual info. I’m not starting any of the KC guys anywhere personally, but they are all talented and potentially in a good situation. If you’re looking for the safe play, Bucannon is your guy. Good luck today.

            • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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              @Kevin Kumpf: looks like you were right about that. ourlads appears correct too, as abdullah played over branch from tackles. i’m guessing you’ll be dropping branch off of rankings for next week unless something changes. still worth holding though it looks like (he’s backup S behind bucannon/collins currently), or I could grab Abdullah. From tackles it looked like Parker went back to CB duties, which is fine since you still had him ranked.

  12. HELLAWAITS says:
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    IDP tackle heavy league. At LB I have Preston Brown/Vincent Rey and Karlos Dansby. Dansby looked slowwww last week and has a Q status this week due to a foot problem. Would you drop Dansby for Anthony Barr or Thomas Davis? Or am I panic moding? Thanks.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @HELLAWAITS:

      Hold Dansby for now. If he doesn’t play then Brown/Rey are both good subs. I’m big on Barr as well, but I wouldn’t drop Dansby for him at this point.

      • HELLAWAITS says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: Yeah. Tough call. I am just hesitant with Barr’s strong side position could be high peaks and low lows. I was big on Dansby but after watching him last week I am starting to worry…

Comments are closed.