2014 In-Season Accuracy: 57.0% (3rd out of 20 Experts, 58.4% Highest, 48.1% Lowest).

If you’re still reading these posts, you either made your Championship game, play in an ill-advised 17-week league, or spend far too much time thinking about the intricacies of IDP fantasy football. Regardless of your motivations, I congratulate you for making it this far. In a season that has been marked by untimely injuries to highly drafted stars as well as surprising breakouts from previous no-names, it’s been easy to ignore the absolute domination of J.J. Watt. From an IDP perspective, he was the first man off the board in most drafts, so me talking about him every week would be like Jay telling you to start Peyton Manning or Jamaal Charles. But let’s not ignore the fact that Watt has now reeled off a ridiculous three straight seasons as the #1 DL, and he’s put up top 10 overall IDP numbers in that time. Most DLs will have a breakout season, followed by opposing offenses adjusting, performances regressing, etc. If anything, Watt has gotten better.

 

So as we head into the final week of the season for most leagues, try not to over-think things too much. Guys like Watt, Chandler Jones, Lavonte David and Morgan Burnett were highly rated in the preseason, and have been in my top 5 all year when healthy, so consider those roster spots handled. There is no worse feeling than getting too cute with your lineup only to see a guy like David (despite being listed as Questionable) putting up 12 tackles and a sack when you’re relying on a 100% healthy Von Miller. Remember what got you here.


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  1. Tim says:
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    Hey man I need one for this week; who to go with?

    Calaeis Campbell (vs russell Wilson & seahawks)

    Patrick peterson (vs seahawks)

    Bobby Wagner (@ Arizona)

    Bruce Irvin (@ Arizona)

    Earl thomas (@ Arizona)

    Revis (@ jets)

    Devin Mccourty (@ jets)

    Thanks & have a great Holiday

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @Tim:

      It’s between Campbell and Wagner, which is a tough one. I like Campbell, as SEA will run the ball and he’s among the best DLs at stopping the run (not to mention the increased chance for sacks). Wagner was great last week, but the sheer number of incompletions likely from Zona this week has me leaning towards Campbell.

  2. SethDaSportsMan

    SethDaSportsMan says:
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    Hi Kevin, fellow Razzballer here. Nice piece. Im in a roto league where we start 4 IDPs. Defensive categories are tackles, INT, PD, sacks.

    I have Craig Robertson and D’Qwell Jackson, who have both been killing it. Only starting 1 this week though cuz Im tied in INT and PD and going with 2 DBs. I dont love Colts matchup — Cowboys havent been giving up tackles or sacks to LB. I see you have D’Qwell ranked fairly higher than Robertson. What are the reasons for that (is Dansby expected back?)?

    Thanks!

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @SethDaSportsMan:

      The Dansby factor does loom large here, but even if he’s inactive I like Jackson more than Robertson (who admittedly has a great matchup). Their production has been similar the last few weeks, but I’m just more confident starting a proven veteran who has earned his playing time through talent then a guy like Robertson who’s more of a flavor of the week. I think their production is similar on Sunday (provided that Dansby is out), but I’d rather put my championship in the hands of Jackson.

  3. goodfold2 says:
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    i spend far too much time….
    anyway, i got an offer. it’s the MIA owner asking about trading his j.jenkins (CB) for my j.jenkins (LB). i’m guessing LB’s being worth a lot more usually (and CB being very easy to find, with b.w.wilson/bouye both averaging over 8.45 pts per game (over 10 and 12 games each).

    jenkins (CB) did average 9.7 pts this year. jenkins (LB) averaged 11.1.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @goodfold2:

      Ordinarily, a CB for LB trade would be a no-brainer decline. And I would still say no to this one. But, despite his great season, Jelani Jenkins likely won’t be starting for Miami next year once Ellerbe and Misi are completely healthy. Even if he is, it’s less likely that he’ll see as many snaps as he did this year.

      So while I would not accept the trade for Janoris, I would definitely try to sell high on Jelani (I’m doing the same in a dynasty league once trading re-opens next week).

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: since this owner is MIA, he might keep coming after my jenkins. that’s good if he’s not a starter. i didn’t notice that ellerbe is the starter and has been out since week 1. i have a lot of guys in this situation with trevathan/jenkins/hightower all having value they might not have next year. I might have to reaccess my LB’s next year, as only David/Butler have sure value (and butler’s season wasn’t that great). what about my jenkins for these (put the order you’d take them in)
        misi/sio moore/cushing/d.edwards (DT)/rucker (DT)/long (DE)
        i doubt he’d move a MIA player like misi. If i got Long he’d displace one of m.johnson/heyward at DE (so that’s probably not a huge upgrade)

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: ellerbe isn’t even owned. so i’m guessing i should likely draft him next year.

          • Kevin Kumpf

            Kevin Kumpf says:
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            @goodfold2:

            Miami LB situation has been a perpetual mess since Zach Thomas retired. I wouldn’t reach in the draft for Ellerbe, but he should be owned if healthy.

  4. cubjet says:
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    I just lost brandon marshall. Free agent linebackers are
    Wagner vs Arz
    Freeman vs Dal
    Robertson vs Car
    Laurenitis vs Nyg
    I want to grab wagner but am concerned that Arz offense just won’t be on the field very much. I know you rankings are above, just looking for some input and your thoughts. A friend of mine told me I am over thinking it. Who would you go with?
    Tackle 1
    Sack 3
    Int 5
    Pass def 1
    Ff 1
    Fr 1
    Thanks in advance.

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @cubjet:

      These are all good choices, so we’re really splitting hairs here, but I would still go with Wagner. I agree with the concerns about Arizona’s offense, but with a 5:1 Interception to tackle ratio, combined with Wagner’s coverage abilities, I like his ceiling more than the other guys.

  5. goodfold2 says:
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    sio moore for my jelani jenkins sound about right?

    • Kevin Kumpf

      Kevin Kumpf says:
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      @goodfold2:

      That would be a great trade for you, though I’d doubt the Sio owner accepts it (always worth asking though!). If you can get Cushing as a backup plan, that would be good as well. He had a down year, but the talent is there for LB1 numbers.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Kevin Kumpf: he not only accepted it, he OFFERED it, after i mentioned that i would move jenkins (LB) but not for a CB. I said, maybe for somebody like s.moore. This is the MIA owner of course, so he’s got that fandom going on here. I opened further discussion without mentioning cushing.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: wait, when you say cushing could be LB #1, you mean a top 12 guy (but at the same time that i’d rather have sio)? Damn, if so Sio sure has moved up the ranks this year, as i’m pretty sure he was ranked lower than guys i grabbed early in the year like butler/riley (who was so bad for awhile that i dropped him, but he ended year strong)/foote.

          • Kevin Kumpf

            Kevin Kumpf says:
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            @goodfold2:

            It’s always complicated with Cushing. On talent alone, he’s got an top 12 ceiling. But between injuries and suspensions, he’s only played 2 of 6 full seasons. He’s also 27, and assuming he’s staying off the PEDs, that could mean quick skill deterioration.

            On the other hand, Sio is just 24 and despite playing in a crowded LB corps on a dysfunctional team, he’s still put up LB2/3 numbers. Moving forward it will be him and Khalil Mack at LB for Oakland, which should leave him plenty of scoring opportunities. It’s not the sexy pick compared to Cush, but it’s definitely the safer one.

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