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Derrick Henry is coming off an age-28 season where he played 16 games while rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. This led to another top-four fantasy finish at the running back position in 2022. Now heading into his age-29 season, should we be worried about him dropping off this year? In this article, we answer that question!
| Running Back | Age 28 PPR PPG | Highest PPG 29+ | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21.1 | 21.7 | 0.6 |
| Arian Foster | 21 | 19.3 | -1.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 19.9 | 16.5 | -3.4 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 18.9 | 11.8 | -7.1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 18.4 | 11.4 | -6.9 |
| Mark Ingram | 17.4 | 16.2 | -1.2 |
| Darren Sproles | 17.3 | 16.6 | -0.7 |
| Reggie Bush | 17.1 | 9.7 | -7.4 |
| Jamaal Charles | 16.7 | 20.2 | 3.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 16.6 | 16.3 | -0.3 |
*Running Back – This column shows every running back since 2010 who had at least 16 PPR PPG in their age-28 season.
*Age 28 PPR PPG – This column represents the PPG that running back had in his age-28 campaign
*Highest PPG 29+ – This column represents the highest PPG that running back had at age-29 or older. For example, both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson had better seasons in their age-30 campaign vs. age-29.
*Difference – This column shows the PPG difference between the running back’s age-28 season and his highest PPG season after that year
Is Derrick Henry Too Old?
Since 2010, 10 running backs averaged at least 16 PPR PPG in their age 28 seasons. Those 10 running backs averaged 18.4 PPR PPG. The next season those same running backs saw their PPG drop to 15.5. However, seven out of the 10 were able to have another season of at least 16 PPR PPG with both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson seeing a bounce back in their age 30 campaign. If we factor in Peterson and Ingram’s age 30 seasons the PPR PPG goes from 15.5 to 16. The dip from 18.4 to 16 PPR PPG is roughly a 13% drop in production. If we apply that to Henry’s 19.0 PPR PPG in 2022, he will project for 16.5 PPR PPG. That PPG would have made him the RB9, and only 0.2 PPG behind the RB7 on a per-game basis last season.
Now knowing the history behind elite fantasy running backs coming into their age-29 season, should we still consider Henry as a top-5 running back? Let’s first look at the three players that never returned to at least 16 PPR PPG. Those running backs were Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray, and Marshawn Lynch.
- Running Back: Reggie Bush
- Age 28 PPR PPG: 17.1
- Age 29+ PPR PPG: 9.7
In the case of Reggie Bush, he lost his starting job to Joique Bell in his age-29 season. The Lions went through a coaching change, and Bush wasn’t featured as a runner. This is reflected in his carries dropping from 223 to 76. Outside of an injury, we shouldn’t expect Henry to be phased out in 2023.
- Running Back: DeMarco Murray
- Age 28 PPR PPG: 18.4
- Age 29+ PPR PPG: 11.4
When reviewing DeMarco Murray’s situation ironically, he was also phased out by none other than Derrick Henry. Murray moved to a timeshare splitting work nearly 50/50 with Henry the year after he out-carried him 293 to 110. It’s important to point out that Henry’s biggest threat to touches is rookie Tyjae Spears. Henry in his rookie season only saw 110 carries.
- Running Back: Marshawn Lynch
- Age 28 PPR PPG: 18.9
- Age 29+ PPR PPG: 11.8
The last one should probably raise some alarm bells, and that is Marshawn Lynch. Lynch’s demise was quick as he suffered multiple injuries during his age-29 season, one of which cost him the year. Even if we just isolate the games where he played 50% of the snaps, Lynch still sees his PPG drop from 18.9 to 12.9.
Conclusion
Knowing the history behind these three scenarios, let’s reassess Henry’s situation. If we remove Bush and Murray from the sample since no one is projecting Henry to lose his job, and we apply Lynch’s 12.9 PPR PPG, the production dip only goes from 18.4 to 17.4 or a 5% decrease. A 5% dip in Henry’s 2022 stats would only drop him from 19.0 to 18.0 PPR PPG. That production would still make Henry the RB4 on a per-game basis.
Leave a comment on if you’re in or out on Derrick Henry in 2023.
For more from Bobby and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @bobbylamarco.
Sources: Razzball.com, PFF.com, FantasyPros, FFToday, Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders
