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I will often find myself stuck in a rut of trying to find the best pieces or my favorite players to target. This is fantasy football. Of course, you’re supposed to be trying to get the best football team you can! What I mean to say, though, is that having “all the best pieces” isn’t necessarily a practical way of building a team. In fact, I would say finding players who are still maturing and growing as a player is a more likely scenario, but it takes calculated risks to get there. Whether it is searching for a flex receiver or running back or finding that perfect TE2 to plug in during your starters bye weeks, there are solid depth pieces that we should also be targeting. One such player is Jared Goff.
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The Beginning of Something New
Jared Goff is no spring chicken, having been in the league now for seven years and turning 29 this October. He still has a lot of untapped potential, though, and has been brought into new surroundings as he now leads the Detroit Lions onto the field each Sunday. A looked-over piece of the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the LA Rams, Goff found himself in a new home that many people did not expect him to last long in.
From the moment he went to Detroit, Goff has been on the “hot seat,” as it were, with people suggesting each season that the Lions should draft his replacement soon. Despite the rumblings of the masses, Dan Campbell and company have invested around Goff instead. This has helped him grow as a passer just over the short time he has been in Detroit, as he has become more comfortable in the system.
In 2021, Goff’s first year with the Lions, he had the worst year of his career, finishing with 14.5 points per game. That year he had a career-low 19 touchdowns and threw 8 interceptions. In 2022, Goff improved all of his numbers, becoming QB10 with a 17.1 PPG while throwing ten more touchdowns and one less interception. Not only did he improve as a fantasy quarterback, he became more efficient in the system he’s now in.
We call that growth.
What Do the Numbers Say?
Given this is his third year in the new system, I fully expect Jared Goff to take another step forward as a quarterback. I’m not saying that Goff is going to become an elite-tiered quarterback. It would be a fun story, but that is not what this is about. This is about finding those players to put on your team before other people begin to see the value that is there. Goff is one of those players. Historically a walking mat for people to poke fun at, he has never been viewed as anything with real value in fantasy football. However, the numbers show that this is not necessarily the case.
Did you know Jared Goff has put up QB1 numbers three separate times? One of those times was just this last year. This shows that he has the ability to crack into QB1 numbers, and he is trending in the right direction to continue doing so. If you look at his average points per game throughout his career, Goff has been in the QB2 range with roughly 16.9 PPG since his second year in the league. These are decent numbers, especially when it comes to Superflex.
It is not Goff’s average that has me excited, though. It is his potential ceiling. He showed back in 2018 that he can be a top quarterback in this league. That year he averaged 19.4 PPG and finished as QB7. That was only his third year in the league, and he was already showing that he had solid potential. Now, it was Sean McVay’s explosive offense in LA, so a little tongue in cheek here, but Goff has the tools to be able to put up those numbers. Now, with what Detroit has put around him, I think he has the chance to take a step toward being a consistent QB1.
Foundations for the Future
As stated, the Lions have done an excellent job putting pieces around Jared Goff to help him succeed. They had already invested in a diamond in the rough when they drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown the same year they traded for Goff. The two have created quite the chemistry and ARSB has since become one of the most coveted receivers in fantasy as he finished as WR7 last year. The two should continue to grow together and be a solid combo together.
They weren’t done looking for weapons for Goff, either. Last year the Lions traded up with their divisional rivals to select Jameson Williams, one of the top wide receiver prospects going into the 2022 draft before he tore his ACL while playing for Alabama. There are still some questions as to whether or not this trade will work out, as Williams has since been suspended for gambling and has not met expectations. However, I fully expect him to reach his potential, and when he does, he will be another weapon for Goff to throw to.
It wasn’t just receivers that the Lions targeted to help Goff. They shocked the NFL community when they selected Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 draft. What is interesting about Gibbs is how much he supported his college quarterback, Bryce Young, in the passing game. He had 444 receiving yards on 44 receptions. Gibbs should be a good outlet for Goff and will help open things up, as teams will have to respect the run now with Gibbs running out of the backfield.
Finally, there is the offensive line, which has one of the highest grades in the league. Sam Monson of PFF has put them as his 5th best offensive line, which does not come lightly. As Monson acknowledged, the Lions maintained a top-10 offensive line all year and should be better now that their interior line will be healthier. The offensive line should open things up both in the run game, as well as the passing game.
A Step in the Right Direction
With the Lions building around him and with Jared Goff beginning to show efficient numbers, it is easy to see that he should be a part of their plans moving forward. He is under contract for the next two years, over which time he will have the chance to show why the Lions should make him the long-term answer at quarterback. If the team continues to take steps in the right direction, which I believe they are a dark horse to win their division, then I expect Goff to be locked up there as their franchise quarterback.
Acquiring Goff should be relatively easy, especially in start-ups where he is going as QB18 off the board. You can prioritize other positions early where there is more of a drop-off between the tiers of players compared to the slight drop-off between the tiers of quarterbacks. Trading for him will probably cost you a 1st round pick in one of the future drafts, but that’s not too shabby when considering you are getting a starting quarterback. That’s a price I am more than willing to pay to help solidify the quarterback position on my rosters.
Goff might not be the sexiest pick, but he has more value than people are giving him. Him finishing as a top-10 quarterback again is not that farfetched. Be sure to get ahead of the curve and get him on your team now while his value is still low.
For more from Richard and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @gingerbe3rdman.
