Last Second Decisions Week 10, 2013 Fantasy Football

I’m looking across my lineups this week, and I’m feeling like my teams’ narratives are like The Other Guys. My Samuel L. and the Rock who were guns blazin’ and taking care of business have gone down to ridiculous injuries, and I’ve got to go with the wild card play of the cop who shot Derek Jeter, then the lanky cop with the crazy Gator past (no not Aaron Hernandez!) to try and fill in. Marlon Brown last week got me my first desk pop! Those TDs were nice. So I’m hoping to be your Michael Keaton and get the police unit to work together, while also trying to keep my Bed Bath & Beyond profitable and my employees from chasing waterfalls.

Going back to last week’s picks, Marlon Brown actually won me a league last week! I liked that one. Terrelle Pryor and Josh McCown gave you solid games as deep QB plays, and Le’Veon Bell also was very solid. My very deep Myles White call was more for James Jones behind hypothetically out, then the Aaron Rodgers injury made things worse, but a loss nonetheless. For my benchers, Matt Ryan was awful and I indeed got the Vincent Jackson bench right! I feel like I’ve missed on VJax 4-5 times over the past 2 years. Fred Jackson was a wash, but Tom Brady and Danny Amendola had huge games. My bad on that one, I knew the Steelers D was bad, but didn’t think the Pats O would get it together. Here’s who I like in week 10 and their % started in ESPN and Yahoo, respectively (NOTE – these are not always recommendations for 1-for-1 swaps, just guys I like who are understarted and guys I hate overstarted):

POSSIBLE STARTERS

Terrelle Pryor (12.0%, 13%) Another week and another Pryor pick, who for some reason continues to get no love despite consistent fantasy performances with legitimate upside. Up against the Giants who give up the 21st most points to opposing QBs, he’s practiced all week despite having to leave early last game with the knee injury. Much rather play him over Matt Ryan (below) or a guy like Ben Roethlisberger.

Mike James (17.3%, 53%) I was slow to buy in that James could be a good fill-in for Doug Martin, and I was wrong. With Martin officially on the shelf for the season, I think James makes another statement for playing time in his career. And shockingly, the Dolphins give up the most points to opposing RBs. It’s all James in the backfield, the Dolphins are in turmoil, he’s a no-brainer this week.

Andre Ellington (15.1%, 35%) Just like James, Ellington is a must-start this week. I’m not sure what the hesitation is, but it’s a decent matchup against a shaky team, and with how Ellington can factor in the passing game, I think he’s matchup proof. High upside and pretty safe play.

Mike Brown (0.2%, 3%) I’m going deep with WR plays, but I like Brown a lot this week and have him starting on two teams. There’s no Justin Blackmon because he could’ve lay off the fun, so Brown will start opposite Cecil Shorts in another junk-time upside game. Double digits in his past two games and I easily see a third in a row.

Kris Durham (0.3%, 3%) His production hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s quietly had 8.8 PPR points or more in 5 straight weeks, and I see a breakout coming this week. The Bears are going to triple and quadruple team Megatron all day long, giving Durham a lot of single coverage and quality targets. He’s a tall receiver with good rapport with Matthew Stafford in what should be a shootout. Like Durham as another high upside wideout.

SON OF A BENCH

Matt Ryan (52.9%, 47%) I feel a little dirty kicking the Shermanator while he’s down, but there’s no way I’d want to start Ryan this week. The Seahawks defense has been shaky against bad offenses the past two weeks, but despite that they’ve been taut against the passing game (2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs) and even with Roddy White returning, I don’t see Ryan putting up the numbers.

Giovani Bernard (53.2%, 52%) Listen, I love Bernard, he has a bright future and is much more explosive than the lawfirm. That said, the rib injury he sustained last Thursday has kept him out full practice all week, even with the few extra days of rest and healing. At the time of this writing (late Saturday night), he’s probably going to play but sounds limited. And very surprisingly, the Ravens actually give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing team’s RBs. I like the upside rushers above.

Maurice Jones-Drew (73.3%, 59%) Any Michigan fan like me knows that the Jaguars coming out and saying they want Denard Robinson to get 14 carries means he’s gonna get hurt in the 2nd quarter. He’s just way too small to be an NFL running back even if he’s used like Dexter McCluster was way back when. But they have announced he’s going to be used and this should be yet another game the Jags are down. With solid upside options started in very few leagues, I could imagine a lot of scenarios you’re sitting him.

Anquan Boldin (34.9%, 50%) I will eat some on this call, because way back when on the podcast I was bold on Boldin. Now I’m… weak? Timid? Afraid of the goose egg? My Panthers D has been solid and Boldin just hasn’t been that good. I actually like both Brown and Durham more.

Roddy White (58.6%, 28%) There’s just no way I’m trusting Roddy yet, even though he’s saying he’s healthy. And if he looks good on the first couple sets, Richard Sherman is going to be all over him. And who knows how healthy he really is. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on the news the Falcons put out there. Fool me three times?! And yeah, that’d be a Roddy owner… Isn’t it ironic that clip goes to fool me 10 times and it’s week 10?!

If you have any last second decisions, shoot some comments below or tweet me @jbgilpin – and remember I’m going to be a little slower getting to them but I’ll get to everything well before kickoff! I’m a peacock, you gotta let me fly! Good luck in week 10!