LeSeanMcCoyBills

Compels me to write about him, that is, because he’s ranked too low. Specifically, LeSean McCoy being ranked behind Mark Ingram is something I just don’t get. Nothing against Ingram, I like him. I just like McCoy better. Here’s some last minute draft advice with #analysis, starting with the reasons why McCoy should be ranked higher than Ingram…

  •  McCoy has been a fantasy stud before.
  •  McCoy has two seasons of 300+ carries to zero for Ingram
  •  McCoy has six seasons of 200+ carries to one for Ingram
  •  What??? Ingram only has one 200+ carry season?

It turns out that those four “reasons” are basically one reason. They are all about one guy who’s done it before and one guy who… struggles to consistently perform. Now here’s where the #analysis really begins. I’ve listed every decent fantasy season either of these two players has amassed, sorted in order of fantasy points scored.

Player Season Points
LeSean McCoy 2011 282.4
LeSean McCoy 2013 278.6
LeSean McCoy 2010 228.2
LeSean McCoy 2014 171.4
Mark Ingram 2014 162.9
Mark Ingram 2015 153.4
LeSean McCoy 2012 147.3
LeSean McCoy 2015 146.7

That’s every season for McCoy except his rookie year. McCoy’s letdowns are equal to Ingram’s best seasons so far.  Now, here’s LeSean McCoy’s carries by each game last year: 17, 15, 11 (left game with injury), 17, 18, 16, 19, 20, 19, 21, 20, 10 (left game with injury). That’s 203 rushing attempts in 12 games, 16.9 per game and remarkably he carried no less than 15 times in any game he started and finished.

But fine, if I must, here are the points for Ingram:

  •  Ingram is (arguably) a player on the rise with a higher ceiling.
  •  Ingram is 1.3 years younger than McCoy.
  •  McCoy is a player in decline, just look at 2014 and 2015 above.
  •  Ingram scored 6.7 more fantasy points than McCoy in 2015.

In reference to number 1, I guess the argument for a higher ceiling would be in part that Saints offense is better than the Bills offense. I would counter this by saying it doesn’t matter because Ingram’s never done it before and until he does it.. well, as my good friend Scott Pianowski would say “I refuse to get drunk on optimism” (that’s sort of an inside joke between me and a commenter, see the comment section of my post here).

So about number 4.. both guys missed 4 games which makes those 140+ fantasy points each of them scored all the more impressive. But that was last year and we don’t get last year’s stats, we get this year’s stats. I think what McCoy has going for him is that he only scored three touchdowns to Ingram’s six. Both totals could rise but which total looks so low it almost has to rise? Wait am I arguing for Ingram or McCoy here? I mean touchdowns are good, right, and Ingram scores more, you say!

Yes, but it’s about what’s going to happen this year, not what happened last year. So maybe McCoy’s low TD total happened for a reason, maybe it didn’t.  Maybe that reason was Karlos Williams. Maybe it wasn’t.  Karlos Williams happens to be gone now. Also.. regression to the mean anyone?

So, about those ranks.. currently this is what Fantasy Pros ECR for running backs in this range looks like:  8. Devonta Freeman, 9. Mark Ingram, 10. Doug Martin, 11. LeSean McCoy.  Here’s the argument I would make for McCoy versus the other players.

McCoy versus Freeman:  McCoy’s workload is more of a sure thing. McCoy has a longer track record. Devonta Freeman is possibly just as much of an injury risk as McCoy.

McCoy versus Martin:  Doug Martin doesn’t stay on the field enough on 3rd downs and when the Bucs get behind. Doug Martin is possibly just as much of an injury risk as McCoy.

But it seems like I’m going out on a limb with these things. How can I be right when so many others disagree? I guess you’ll have to explain it to me.

Lastly, who else around here loves LeSean McCoy?  Tehol Beddict, that’s who.  I think if he read the above analysis he’d smile and say “Boom shakalaka”.

The Old Reliable Values

Jonathan Stewart RB20. I don’t see how a feature back with no competition on a pretty good offense can be ranked this low.  He’s got an injury history, sure.  I guess I like players with injury risks.  It’s a theme, I like the value when all the risk is already built into their cost.  I think he is an incredible value right now.  Carlos Hyde is being drafted 16 spots ahead of him and C.J. Anderson is being drafted 20 spots ahead of him. I don’t get it.

I wrote about Ryan Mathews being underrated previously but on second thought I think he’s about fine where he’s going.  I would target him at about his ECR of 55 overall. Like Jonathan Stewart he has no real competition. I prefer him to players like Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones for talent and job security reasons.  I prefer him to Frank Gore because of Gore’s age and I prefer him to Giovani Bernard because Mathews has a higher ceiling due to workload. Those are the running backs ranked right behind him, which I think is correct.

The Upsiders

I want to like Melvin Gordon at his ADP of 66 but I’m just not sure if his workload will be high enough because Danny Woodhead cuts into it.  If you think his workload is safe because he’ll mostly limit Woodhead to passing down work then of course you’ll be targeting him and that’s fine.

Christine Michael is someone I really like as a late round draft choice in leagues of any size. I think there’s a shot Thomas Rawls doesn’t play or plays very little in week one. Of course if Rawls is active but plays very little that won’t help you much in week one because you probably wouldn’t have started Michael anyway due to Rawls being declared active. I think it’s somewhat unlikely, but what if Michael just proves to be better than Rawls? The way that I can see this as a possibility is if Rawls isn’t the same player he was last year due to this ankle injury, which is taking forever for him to get over. It’s probably taking forever because it wasn’t only reported as a broken ankle but also as torn ligament(s).

I guess you could believe Pete Carroll and ignore the risk. He’s saying Rawls will play in week one. Then surely as Romo’s back is just fine, Rawls will play!  According to a Seahawks.com post from back in April Rawls said he hopes to “be ready for camp”. I don’t even know what “be ready for camp” means. Presumably ready to practice. But he wasn’t, at least not from the onset. So that sort of tells you that things aren’t going quite as well as he once hoped.  Anyway, Christine Michael’s overall rank is 141, I’d target him about 15 spots earlier to see what kind of role he has during the first week. I wouldn’t necessarily be worried over Rawls as it is still likely he’ll have his starting gig to begin the season but own Michael just in case. For the upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter! @RotoLance.

  1. Reid

    Reid says:
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    McCoy was injured going into last season and had a lingering hamstring ailment for most of the season.

    He’s healthy this year and Tyrod loves throwing to him out of the backfield.

    McCoy has a high ceiling and the point of your first 2 picks in fantasy football isn’t to win your league with them, but instead to not lose your league with them. McCoy is a very safe 2nd round RB if everybody else in your draft is on board with the Zero-RB strategy.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Reid: Yeah when the injury risk is built in a seemingly risky player can actually be a safe / value player.

  2. Rondo says:
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    How you ranking them in a .5PPR after all of the news the last 3 weeks (Teddy out, Romo down, Green knee tweak, Bell 3 games out, etc.,)?

    A.J. Green
    Elliot
    Peterson
    Bell
    Bryant
    K. Allen
    J. Charles

    Thanks!

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Rondo: I’m going to assume Green will be fine for the purposes of this because I think that’s the most likely result of his “injury”.

      A.J. Green > Peterson > Elliott > Charles > Bell > Allen > Bryant

      It’s pretty close all around. I’m actually the most confident with ranking Green first because it’s 0.5 PPR. I’m not really confident of the running back rankings I’ve given you. Elliott has big upside but some risk obviously.

      I do think that 0.5 PPR scoring helps Allen much more than Bryant especially because of the injury but I don’t think Bryant has ever been a real high volume guy (relative to other elite WRs), has he?

      THanks for reading.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @RotoLance: One thought on Peterson. I’m a Vikings fan so I’m highly aware of what’s going on there and last year there was push-pull kinda thing where the Vikings were trying to balance Teddy’s need to play out of the shot gun and Peterson’s strength in running from a standard alignment. That won’t be an issue for Peterson with Teddy gone. I think that’s where he gets a surprise benefit.

        • Rondo says:
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          @RotoLance: There is one more wrinkle to this. My keepers are Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. We can start 4WR and are only required to start 1RB.

          If Green is NOT available, do I still go AP or grab a WR since 4 can be started?

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Rondo: I love the strategy of loading up on WRs in PPR. I was just on my home league’s message board sort of poking fun at ESPNs recent PPR mock draft, here is some of the evidence I provided that they didn’t know what they were doing by being RB heavy in PPR. Check it:

            WR,WR,WR,WR,WR,RB,WR,WR,WR,WR (1)
            WR,WR,RB,WR,WR,WR,RB,RB,RB,WR (4)
            WR,WR,WR,WR,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,WR (2)
            WR,RB,WR,RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,RB (5)
            RB,WR,WR,WR,RB,WR,WR,RB,RB,RB (5)
            RB,WR,WR,WR,WR,WR,RB,RB,RB,WR (4)

            This is how these two positions finished in 2015 PPR fantasy points scored. Number in parentheses is how many RBs from each group of 10. There were only 7 RBs that finished in the top 30 WR/RB points scored. Further down the line it started to even out because there are some good RBs in that group, obviously, when you consider only 7 finished in the top 3, there have to be some good ones left. WRs utterly dominated PPR scoring last year. That’s 21 of 60 overall.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Rondo: In fact it’s quite possible I”m too low on both Allen and Dez with those rankings. Part of the reason I’m a bit scared is their injury history. Obviously they are still no more risky than a running back (in general) but they are riskier than some other WRs. Dez anyway. Maybe Allen gets a pass.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @RotoLance: Err hopefully it’s obvious that the analysis above was for full PPR, not half. I did get confused as to whether we were talking about full or half for a second. My general point still stands that WRs are safer, I have no problem with either AP or the best available WR.

  3. The Harrow says:
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    i just saw the responses, even though you posted like 15 minutes after my last one (glad you linked it, i just forgot to go back and check), my bigger beef in that blurb of his wasn’t the “drunk” part, but this part:
    “There are many different paths to FF glory, and anything will work if you pick the right players”

    THAT is the line that says nothing of any meaning. his job is telling people which players to pick, which would help them win. also, some paths are better than others, and finding those is the goal of course. we know there are many of them already. the worst fantasy player knows there are many paths to choose from.

    • The Harrow says:
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      @The Harrow: watch me turn that sentence into something a politician would say, which means literally nothing:
      “there are many ways to make america great, and all of us will do well if we do the right thing/make the right choices (to which a politician would add… and vote for me)”
      this is the simplest of the simple as far as those go, it doesn’t even add in any fears in the mind of the rabble (the next step).

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @The Harrow: Yeah, I hear ya. When I was thinking about Ingram being ranked ahead of McCoy for his potential it made me think of “drunk on optimism” and you saying “I want to know what he was drunk on when he wrote that.”

      • The Harrow says:
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        @RotoLance: hehe, yeah, i’ll try what he’s on, but only for like DMT-like time slices (30 minutes or so).

  4. Derrick says:
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    Thoughts on this team I just drafted?

    1st (8) WR Allen Robinson
    2nd (17) WR Alshon Jeffrey
    3rd (32) TE Jordan Reed
    4th (41) WR Donte Moncrief
    5th (56) RB Frank Gore
    6th (65) RB Arian Foster
    7th (80) WR DeSean Jackson
    8th (89) RB LaGaratte Blount
    9th (104) QB Phillip Rivers
    10th (113) RB Jeremy Hill (KEEPER)
    11th (128) TE Tyler Eifert
    12th (137) WR Markus Wheaton
    13th (152) QB Andy Dalton
    14th (161) RB Latavius Murray (KEEPER)
    15th (176) Jets D

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Derrick: It looks solid. WR in 1st / 2nd / 4th was definitely the right choice I think because of those keepers.

  5. Mike says:
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    I do think shady gets lost in the shuffle. As a bills fan, I love watching what he can do with the football. I’m in a 2 player keeper leauge. I’ve got Gronk locked up and I’m left to choose between Freeman and shady. I’m leaning Freeman, but he’s not going to put up the numbers he did last year. I do think shady is a little more versatile than Freeman, but that could be my bills bias showing.

    If you had to pick between these 2 RBs, who do you keep?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Mike: Well, I think you know my answer but it’s a close one. McCoy. If you think you’d have more fun owning McCoy because you’re a Bills fan that’s a good tiebreaker.

  6. WhenYourUncleGetsOffTheGrillToShowYouHowtightHisSpiralIs says:
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    I drafted Lacy, McCoy, Matthews and Foster as my RB lineup in my 10 team league .5 ppr.

    Did I draft alright or not well enough?

  7. Adam says:
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    Just had my ESPN 10 team standard draft
    Had 1st pick
    My team
    Qb Wilson
    Rb. D Murray,Mel Gordon, Henry, d Williams,c Michael, ware, t west
    Wr. A brown, m Evans, m jones, funchess
    Te. J reed
    K. Haushka
    Dst Panthers and Eagles
    All good rbs went btw 20-39
    Thoughts?
    Thx

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Adam: Just FYI, I’m the guy that when asked about a team will not just automatically be like “Looks great.”

      It’s interesting to see how Reed affected your draft because your WR3 might be a bit lacking because of it. Now he does make up for it, so that’s ok. I’m fine with Murray and Gordon. I think handcuffing can suck but in this case, say Gordon was on bye you might actually be able to start Murray AND Henry at RB assuming they aren’t also on bye. That TEN offense is one of the intriguing stories we’re waiting to want to find out about.

      Good luck. Thanks.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Adam: Oh I guess of course Wilson is the other reason you don’t look that great at WR3.. It’s a good team. I’ve drafted teams like that before.

      • Yr never too old for balloons says:
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        @RotoLance: i hope everybody round here doesn’t say “looks great” just to do it.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Yr never too old for balloons: I don’t think so. It’s more an issue of most teams look good to great on paper before any games have started. But I’ve also not really anyone say “mediocre team”. Like i have legit concerns about the team that guy asked me to grade, but what I meant by I’ve drafted teams like that before was frankly to mean that I’ve done so but it was a bit of a mistake. But yet the team can still be good. Of course.

          It’s funny though because come to think of it, I used to grade all the teams in my home league, every year. And I made it a truly tedious process because I tried to be as fair as I could possibly be, using objective measures like rankings and projections. My league mates would ask me to do this every year, they liked it. However feelings were also sometimes hurt-ish. As if my opinion mattered that much.

          Anyway the first time I ever did this, well you have to realize the context that made me want to do this had to do with the level of play in my league. My mom and 2 sisters were in the league (and my dad) and ya know they are football fans but not as much as some of us. So the point was I, was in a sense an “authority” on the matter. Oh back to that “anyway”.. the first time I did it my sister was like “you are a good writer” and it was in fact quite encouraging and think me doing those grade/evals are part of why I ended up here, writing for Razzball.

          Thanks for reading.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @RotoLance: Obviously I’m not a good writer when it comes to grammar type issues when responding to a post comment. I left out a word or two in there, my brain is ahead of my fingers typing it or something.

            • Yr never too old for balloons says:
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              @RotoLance:i used to do same thing back when i was only in about 2 leagues, but would only share that info with like my one really good friend in the league, probably would’ve caught a bunch of shit just posting it for all 11 to see (not that it wasn’t valid (to me), but i’m sure at least some of them wouldn’t have found it such)

  8. Adam says:
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    Had to take Wilson at 40/41 turn as Qb started to go
    Didnt want to take leftovers at 60/61
    Took reed at the 20/21 turn as Lacy went 19(wanted him )

  9. Jason says:
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    According to Tehol, Shady is gonna deliver the Mael? Stop Bugg’n.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Jason: Uhhh… I mean Tehol likes Shady, yes.

  10. Ron says:
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    .5PPR- Would you trade AP and the overall #27 for A.J. Green and overall #32?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Ron: It’s tough to evaluate, close in my opinion. I have no problem with it one way or the other but I’d probably lean AP and the higher pick.

      Roll with whatever player you want to roll with.

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