Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.
Ryan was one of the most colossal disappointments from 2009. He was drafted in the 5th-8th rounds in most leagues and didn’t deliver anything close to that value. There were some injury issues but his final line was: 2,916 yards, 22 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, and an 80.9 quarterback rating. His touchdown to interception ratio wasn’t really worse than in his rookie year but all the other peripherals were down. His ADP in 2009 was based on the assumption that he’d improve not regress slightly.
So, why did Matt Ryan suck so bad in 2009? Part of his problem was playing so well in his rookie campaign. Teams respected his ability and game planned to try and stop the passing game. The Falcons didn’t run the ball nearly as effectively and Michael Turner had a few huge games but other than that he was not very productive or injured. Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood filled in but they did not bring enough to the table to force teams to load up the box and open up the field for Ryan and his receivers.
I am stoked about Matt Ryan for Fantasy in 2010 and you should be too. Based on his performance he should fall to the mid rounds (around the 10th) in 12 team leagues. If that’s how things are shaping up in preseason mocks he should be your target even if you draft a better QB earlier. Why would you want to do that?
We all love a “comeback story.” The whole Fantasy world will have their eye on Ryan, paying close attention to how his season goes. If he does play well you could really score huge by trading him, particularly in Keeper Leagues. Now, you may want to hang on to him yourself and that’s fine too but it’s nice to know you’ll have that option. As I mentioned above, if Ryan is falling far enough I’m going to recommend drafting him even if you pick a solid QB earlier. The reason being you will be able to trade him for significantly more value if he starts out strong.
Do I believe that Matt Ryan will turn it around? Yes, I do. Emphatically in fact. The touchdown to interception ratio will improve. He should be a 2 to 1 ratio guy; 26 TD’s and 13 INT’s sounds about right. The yards should be in the mid to high 3,000’s (we’ll say 3,750). These are the type of numbers we expected of him in 2009 that made people pick him in the 4th and 5th rounds. If we can get the same potential several rounds later, why not?