Welcome to the halfway point of your fantasy season. Whatever you do and whatever your record is, do not give up. This week, there are four teams on a bye. You may be missing some serious quarterback power. The teams on a bye are the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles, who are on a bye this week, are a defense you can attack with the wide receivers. And if it is the Dallas Cowboys, you can add the tight end. Also, unfortunately, it wasn’t Brandin Cooks but the true alpha, Cee Dee Lamb.
This week, don’t be misled by the sparkling baubles on the field. Trust your instincts, follow the narratives, and look at the stats. This season can be salvaged yet. And for those on the winning side of your fantasy leagues, be warned: we, on the winning-challenged side, are coming for you!
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Defenses to Attack Week 10
Defenses Vulnerable to the Quarterback
Attack Seattle Seahawks with Sam Howell, Washington Commanders, 46.5 o/u, Seahawks -6.5
The Commanders are a 6.5-point road underdog. Attacking Seattle is about attacking the Seahawks’ defense and the prowess of Howell.
In the last three weeks, the Seahawks have allowed Tyler Huntley to complete seven passes in the fourth quarter, one of them being a touchdown. (To be sure, undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell averaged 15.3 yards per carry against them as he ran for 138 yards and one touchdown).
In Week 8, the Cleveland Browns’ backup quarterback passed for 248 yards on 31 attempts with one passing touchdown, while Joshua Dobbs passed for 146 yards against them.
You are attacking the Seahawks’ defense, but the attack is also about Howell. Howell has been sacked an incredulous 44 times. He also leads the league in passing attempts (353). In two of his last three games, he has passed for over 300 yards, and against Philadelphia in Week 8, he not only passed for over 300 yards, he also added four touchdowns.
The game script indicates Washington will be playing from behind, which should necessitate Howell putting the ball up at his league-leading 39.2 attempts per game.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, Monday Night
The Broncos are coming off their bye week. Wilson isn’t going to attack the Bills’ defense by putting up gaudy (or even credible) passing numbers against them. What he will do is throw for touchdowns. Wilson has at least one touchdown in his last three games (including the dud of a game in Kansas City where Wilson only passed for 95 yards). In the week before the bye, he then torched Kansas City for three passing touchdowns on 114 yards.
The Bills defense has given up two touchdowns in each of their last three games. Those quarterbacks not only include Joe Burrow but also Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones.
Wilson is averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game. Wilson is an adequate fill-in in a week when there is no Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts.
Defense Vulnerable to the Running Back
Attack the New York Jets with Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders host the New York Jets Sunday Night, New York Jets -1.0, 36.5 o/u
The Jets are averaging 137.3 rushing yards per game for the season. In the last three weeks, they have allowed an average of 122.3.
Jacobs is only averaging 3.18 yards per carry. Last week, in the first game with interim head coach Antonio Pierce, Jacobs had 26 carries for 98 rushing yards. Jacobs also leads all running backs with 43 receiving targets.
In week 9, Austin Ekeler rushed for two touchdowns against the Jets’ defense. In Week 8, Saquon Barkley rushed for 128 yards on 36 carries! It is unlikely that Jacobs will see that many rushing attempts. Before the Pierce era, Jacobs was averaging 17.67 rushing attempts per game. His 26 in a volume increase that we can get aboard, especially if he maintains his role in the passing game.
The Raiders have that new coach feeling. Attack the reeling Jets with Jacobs in a prime-time home game.
Retreat, James Cook v Denver Broncos
A great man once said, “Stats should back the narrative, not create it.” ~~Kurt Warner
The stats say that the Denver Broncos are 32 against the run, allowing 154.1 rushing yards for the season. However, the narrative says that for the last three weeks (perhaps coinciding with the return of safety Justin Simmons), the Broncos have only allowed an average of 98.3 rushing yards per game.
- Week 8 Isiah Pacheco had 40 rushing yards on eight attempts.
- Week 7 A.J. Dillon had 61 rushing yards on 15 attempts.
- Week 6 Isiah Pacheco had 62 rushing yards on 16 attempts.
And then there is Cook, who has not had more than 20 rushing yards in the last three games. So, if you will attempt to attack the Broncos on the stats, remember the narrative.
Defense Vulnerable to the Wide Receiver
Attack the Atlanta Falcons with Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals v Atlanta Falcons, -1.0, 42.5 o/u
There is talk that quarterback Kyler Murray will be back for Week 10. Having Murray back under center is a natural boost for Brown’s fantasy value. Playing the Atlanta Falcons doesn’t hurt Brown’s ceiling. Without Murray, Brown is the ninth most targeted wide receiver (77). Even with that volume, Brown has been a fantasy disappointment. Brown hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in his last four games. He is WR27 in standard leagues and WR20 in PPR for the season.
The Falcons have allowed T.J. Hockenson 69 yards, DeAndre Hopkins 128 yards, and Mike Evans 82 yards in their last three games, respectively.
Defense Vulnerable to the Tight End
Attack the Cincinnati Bengals with Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -8.0, 46.5 o/u
Last week, Dalton Kincaid had 10 receptions for 81 yards against the Bengals defense, and in Week 9, George Kittle had 149 yards on nine receptions.
Schultz is on the field for 69% of the offensive snaps. He has a 13% target share. Last week, he tied for the target lead with Tank Dell (11). Schultz led the team in receptions (20) and was second in receiving yards (130).
Yes, it helped that his quarterback threw for 470 yards with five passing touchdowns, but it wasn’t exactly an aberration. For the season, C.J. Stroud has three games with more than 300 yards and three with more than 200 passing yards.
The game script should be in the favor of the Texans having to play catch up. This is good. Attack the Bengals with Stroud and Schultz.
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Good Luck!
