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It’s that time. The NFL 2023 season is finally here! Fantasy football fortunes are within our grasp! Week 1 games begin on Thursday with the Detroit Lions playing the reigning Super Bowl Champions, Kansas City Chiefs. We won’t discuss the defenses to attack in that game. But if you are listening, no, Chris Jones or Charles Omenihu is good for Jared Goff and will impact your fantasy football team. PS Monitor Travis Kelce, he hyperextended his knee in practice.Â
Today, this talk is all about your Sunday and Monday defenses. Before we start, it is Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. That means we are using stats from last year and theorizing what impact the movement of players will have on the defense.
Also, take preseason exhibition games with a grain of salt. The offenses weren’t showing you their firepower, and as a result, some defenses looked dominant. These defenses may not look so great when the full force of the offense is upon them.
Let’s start and see what defenses we will attack in Week 1.
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Defenses to Attack Week 1 of the NFL 2023 Season
Quarterback Should Attack
Tennessee Titans Defense
Great quarterbacks will feast on this defense. The Titans ranked 28th in pass defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) — 16.3%. Opposing quarterbacks averaged 245.2 passing yards and 7.1 yards per attempt. Their pass rush was 20th with a 38%-win rate.
The Titans lost edge rusher Bud Dupree and linebacker Zach Cunningham. They added edge Arden Key, linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and David Long and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
The Titans play the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. The Saints are favored by three, and the over/under is 41.5.
Week 1 of the NFL 2023 season will be Derek Carr’s first game as a Saint. He has all his weapons except running back Alvin Kamara at his disposal. Carr isn’t a great quarterback, but a good one.
Carr did play the Titans last year. In the third week of the Las Vegas Raiders experiment, Carr threw for 303 yards on 44 attempts. He had two passing touchdowns and one interception against the Titans. He also rushed for 17 yards and finished with 19.8 fantasy points.
Last season, on average, the Titans gave up the fourth most fantasy points and FanDuel points to the quarterback position, 19.0 and 19.9, respectively. They also gave up the third most DraftKings points to the position, 21.5.
Miami Dolphins Defense
It isn’t only because the Dolphins are without the services of Jalen Ramsey. It isn’t even the fact that Xavien Howard is the number one cornerback in Miami and last season, he allowed opponents an average of 121.1 passer rating when targeted (okay, it is a little of that). It is a lot like last year. Miami’s defense ranked 24th in scoring with 24.1 points per game allowed, and they were 23rd in red zone scoring rate, allowing opponents to score 59.3% of the time.
It is because the team who surrendered the second most DraftKings and fantasy points per game to the quarterback, 21.5 and 19.6, and also allowed the third most FanDuel points (20.1) to the position will be playing Justin Herbert in Week 1 of the NFL 2023 season.
Herbert played with injured ribs last season and still finished as QB11 in fantasy football land. He was second in passing attempts (699), and the team was second in pass plays per game (41.9). And now he is working under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who led the Cowboys to the number one offense in two out of his four years.
Attack the Dolphins’ secondary with Herbert and the gang.
https://twitter.com/BoltCentral/status/1698347097005899964?s=20
Wide Receivers Should Attack
Minnesota Vikings Defense
It is not a stretch to say that the best acquisition the Vikings made on the defensive side was hiring Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. Other than that, the defense that was 30h in points allowed per game (25.4) lost more than they gained. There will be only one secondary starter in the same position he was in last season.
Attacking the Vikings secondary, who lost Patrick Peterson, Duke Shelley, Cameron Dantzier, and Chandon Sullivan out of the cornerback room, seems good sense. Especially when considering this secondary allowed the third most fantasy points to the wide receivers (24.7) and the second most DraftKings (40.5) and FanDuel points (32) to the position.
The caveat is, of course, that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will not be catching passes from Tom Brady. We all know that Baker Mayfield can show up and show out. Remember Week 17 last season, Mayfield came in against Denver and went 24-of-28 for 230 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. With a motivated Evans and Godwin healthy, they should be able to attack the Vikings’ revamped secondary.
Running Backs Should Attack
Los Angeles Chargers Defense
One of the best pass defenses of 2022 was also one of the worst run defenses of 2022, and it wasn’t just an anomaly. In the past two seasons, the Chargers cannot stop the run. Last season, they gave up 145.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. In 2021, they surrendered the third most rushing yards per game, giving up 138.9.
The Chargers did acquire linebacker Eric Kendricks. Kendricks has seven consecutive seasons with at least 100 tackles. Last season, he had 137 combined tackles with eight tackles for loss. Kendricks playing middle linebacker should help the run defense, but it is Week 1.
This game has the highest implied total for the week at 51, with the Chargers being a three-point favorite at home. Early reports indicate Raheem Mostert will be RB1 for this game, with Jeff Wilson injured. Monitor the progress of speedy rookie De’Von Achane because the Dolphins’ running backs should attack the Chargers’ weak run defense.
Last season, the Chargers surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to the running back position (21.7). They also gave up the sixth most DraftKings points (27.5) and the seventh most FanDuel points (23.6) to the position.
Tight Ends Should Attack
Seattle Seahawks Defense
This is a little tricky. The Seahawks gave up the most fantasy points to the tight end position last season (11.5). They also gave up the second most DraftKings (17) and FanDuel (13.8) points to the position. But Bobby Wagner is back, and they acquired Devin Bush, which makes them nominally better.
The tricky part is this: the Seahawks play the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. There is a chance Cooper Kupp will not play due to a hamstring injury, which should be great news for Tyler Higbee. However, in their last two meetings last year (when other tight ends feasted on Seattle), Higbee hauled in six receptions on 12 targets for a total of 47 yards. In their Week 13 meeting, he collected 1.4 fantasy points; in Week 18, it was 3.3.
You can always pivot to attacking the Arizona Cardinals’ defense if you feel slightly queasy about playing Higbee in this game. The Cardinals gave up the second most fantasy points (10.9), DraftKings points (17), and FanDuel (13.9) points to the tight end position.
The Cardinals play the Washington Commanders. The issue is that TE1 Logan Thomas is nursing an injury, and his status for Week 1 is uncertain. Next up in Washington is either Cole Turner or John Bates.
https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1690931602157969408?s=20
It’s Week 1. Enjoy yourself. Last year’s stats are just that. Now, the real fun begins. Come to Razzball for the fun and stay for the info. Come see me @gladysLtyler for fun and info. Good Luck out there!
