It is Week 7, and I am not ashamed to admit that this season (so far) has me flummoxed. As far as defenses go, this has been a historically low-scoring season. That’s good. Defenses are good. Really good, and that’s good. But injuries and inept offenses are making it bad for… me, my fantasy teams, prop bets, and prognostications.
So, I’m changing things up a bit, you know, for my sanity and hopefully better ideas on what defenses to attack. But here’s a quick recap. On the Smash forefront, Michael Gallup was targeted 10 times. Guess how many receptions he had? Oh, that would be three receptions for 24 yards…on 10 targets!!! I can’t even. CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard were second on the team in targets, with seven each. Lamb remembered he was on the field to catch the passes and finished with seven receptions for 117 yards.
And now we must be like goldfish. Onto this week, my friends.
There are six teams on a bye: Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans. There are multiple high-profile injuries: quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields, running backs David Montgomery and Kyren Williams, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, just to name a few.
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Week 7 Defenses to Attack
Attacking the Defense with this Quarterback
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks -8.0 v Arizona Cardinals, 44.5
Smith and the Seahawks had a low-scoring losing affair last week in Cincinnati. Smith attempted 41 passes and completed 27 for 323 yards. He threw three interceptions and zero touchdowns.
This week, the Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals’ secondary gives up a 101.3 quarterback rating and a 70.9 completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. The Cardinals also allow an average of 251.4 passing yards and have surrendered eight passing touchdowns.
Last week was the first time in five weeks that Smith did not have a passing touchdown. It was also the first time he had multiple interceptions.
The Cardinals have been competitive. They have also allowed at least one passing touchdown in their last three games.
The Seahawks are a touchdown-plus favorite. Smith should get back to his touchdown passing ways.
Attacking the Defense with this Wide Receiver
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5, 39.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed only 83.8 rushing yards per game. The Falcons have both Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson in the backfield. Last week that resulted in both getting 13 rushing attempts. Robinson averaged 2.8 yards per attempt, while Allgeier averaged 3.9 yards.
The stilted backfield has resulted in the Falcons passing more than we were led to believe. Ridder’s passing attempts have gone from 18 in his first game to 47 last week.
The beneficiaries have been London and tight end Kyle Pitts. The Buccaneers have given up the seventh most average fantasy points per game to the wide receiver (23.8) and 188 average receiving yards with one touchdown per game. In their last four games, the Buccaneers have allowed three of the four receivers to have more than 100 receiving yards. D.J. Moore had 104 yards, A.J. Brown 131 yards, and Amon-Ra St. Brown 124 yards. The only receiver who didn’t get 100 was the New Orleans Saints Michael Thomas.
In Week 4, London led the team with seven targets. It only resulted in three receptions and 28 yards, but he also had a touchdown. In Week 5, London was second in targets (9) behind Pitts (11) and finished with six receptions and 78 yards. Last week, he led again with 12 targets. He led the team with nine receptions and 125 yards.
Attacking the Defense with this Running Back
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders -2.0 @ New York Giants, 39.5
For the season, the New York Giants have surrendered nine rushing touchdowns and given up an average of 151.4 rushing yards. Last week, James Cook averaged 5.1 rushing yards against the Giants. De’Von Achane averaged 13.7 the week before, and Raheem Mostert averaged 6.5 playing the Giants’ defense.
Robinson has been underwhelming. His biggest output was against the Denver Broncos, 18 carries for 87 yards and two touchdowns. Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, Robinson only had 31 yards on 10 rushing attempts. For the season, he is averaging 3.9 rushing attempts.
Divisional rivalries suck and are hard to predict. But that has been the first six weeks hard to predict and sucking. Robinson should be able to pad his stats against the Giants.
Attacking the Defense with this Tight End
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers -1.5 @ Denver Broncos, 44.5
The Denver Broncos appear to be in a free fall. They also allow the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position (9.7). Tight ends are averaging 75.7 yards per game against them.
When we last saw the Green Bay Packers, they weren’t looking great. But what we did see was Musgrave sharing the lead in targets with Christian Watson (7). Musgrave also led in receptions (7) and was second in yards (34).
Musgrave has a 14.6% target share and a 73.5% route participation. His 7.7 aDOT is eighth for tight ends.
Admittedly, the Broncos have faced the Mount Rushmore of tight ends the last week, but in Week 5, they faced New York Jets’ Tyler Conklin, who led his team in receptions and yards, and in Week 4, Chicago Bears’ Cole Kmet torched them for two touchdowns and 85 yards.
Musgrave should be okay.
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