NFL Draft Recap: Reflections and Fantasy Impact

With the NFL Draft complete for another year, it’s time to look at the big stories, the surprise picks and the unexpected fallers. I’ll also discuss their likely impact on your dynasty leagues. For context, I’ve also included my final mock draft at the end of the article, including where those players ended up. I finished 11^th in the Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Accuracy competition, one spot below last year. In the coming weeks I’ll be releasing my rookie rankings and analyzing their landing spots so ensure you follow me on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown or Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. You can also find my rookie rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com

The Falcons Lose Their Minds

The biggest story of the 2024 draft came with the eighth pick. After giving Kirk Cousins $100 million in guaranteed money, the Atlanta Falcons drafted quarterback Michael Penix. This is truly insane for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Falcons have countless holes on defense and have a pile of talented youngsters on contracts that will expire soon. Their win-now window is realistically in the next couple of seasons and they needed to maximize their high picks to support Cousins because they may not be picking this high in the coming seasons. Secondly, Michael Penix is a 24-year-old rookie with a vast injury history who wasn’t even a top four quarterback for most teams. Lastly, and most importantly, if Penix is a hit, they will not be able to spend up on free agents around him because they’ll be paying off Cousins’ contract then renewing or losing their offensive stars. To compound things, they then traded up in the second round to grab an underwhelming nose tackle who would have been available at their original 43^rd pick. Even worse, stud defensive tackle Johnny Newton, an anticipated first round pick, was still on the board. This is extremely poor roster and draft management and will ensure the Falcons are unlikely to be Super Bowl contenders in the near future.

The Vikings Show How It’s Done

After trading for the Texans’ 23^rd pick, we expected the Vikings would trade into the top 5 to grab JJ McCarthy. Minnesota called everybody’s bluff though, waiting until the tenth pick before blocking the Broncos and drafting their guy. This allowed them to retain their second early pick, which they ultimately used on Dallas Turner after a minor trade up. As a result, the Vikings got two players well below their anticipated value without trading away any 1^st– or 2^nd-round picks. Now I admit, JJ McCarthy is still a risky pick and I’m not convinced he’s going to pan out, but at least they got him at the right value. Likewise Turner, an anticipated top 10 pick, also carries some risk and was falling for a reason. But the Vikings should still be applauded for their smart draft strategy, even if the remainder of their draft was rather underwhelming.

Elite Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers Flood the Top 10

2023 had an elite tight end class along with a couple of top-end running backs. This year, it’s all about the quarterbacks and wide receivers, with 9 of the first 12 picks being one of these positions. A number of these players are truly elite leading to appropriate top ten selections, making this a great year to have an early pick in dynasty drafts. Caleb Williams is not only a safe prospect (despite erroneous fan opinions), he has a stellar cast of pass catchers to work with. Jayden Daniels is an accurate Lamar Jackson-type who will be fantasy gold due to his legs. Drake Maye has Josh Allen-like upside though he’ll take a couple of years to develop. Meanwhile Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers have both become the unquestioned top receiving options in their respective teams and should be the first two off the board in 1QB rookie drafts. Rome Odunze is a special talent too though due to the talent around him, he’ll likely take a couple of years to pay off in dynasty. If you can access an early dynasty pick, these are the guys to target.

All the Defenders Fall

A record fourteen offensive players were selected before edge rusher Laiatu Latu finally went off the board. This led to a flourish of seven defenders in ten picks, with a number of teams getting incredible value. Latu had injury concerns coming into the draft but most teams cleared him medically. He and Byron Murphy were expected to go in the top ten so the Colts and Seahawks getting them at 15 and 16 respectively was a big win for both teams. Meanwhile, the Eagles were expected to trade into the top twelve to grab Quinyon Mitchell, only to have him fall to them with the 22^nd pick! The Lions also got a huge bargain when they grabbed Terrion Arnold two picks later while the Eagles doubled up by incredibly bagging a second star defensive back with the 40^th pick. Cooper DeJean was in play for the Seahawks with the 16^th pick so seeing him fall well into the second round was a massive win for Philly.

Receiving Depth Will Affect Dynasty Value

Now is the time to sell high on your dynasty wide receivers. After rookie drafts, there will be a flood of talented young receivers hitting rosters and that will affect the value of your existing stars, especially those aging veterans. The first two rounds saw 11 receivers coming off the board and all will be appealing fantasy options. My personal favorite is Keon Coleman who got the coveted Bills role, while Xavier Worthy also has huge upside in a Chiefs offense where he could be the number one receiver.

Tight End and Running Back Depth at an All Time Low

This was a terrible draft for tight end and running back needy dynasty teams. Brock Bowers is the only noteworthy tight end and even he unexpectedly fell to the Raiders. This was a confusing pick given their clear needs at quarterback, offensive line and cornerback. It’s also terrible news for second year tight end Michael Mayer who is presumedly now the block-focussed options in Vegas. Bowers is nevertheless still a top option as a true receiving wildcard who could be the next best receiver behind Davante Adams. Meanwhile, while everybody expected the Cowboys to draft their next great running back, they eschewed the position entirely, meaning most of the top runners ended up in backup roles. Jonathon Brooks is at least a starter in Carolina, though that’s not the best offense to play in. Meanwhile Trey Benson is likely a rotational back with the excellent James Conner for the near future. There’s no other running backs or tight ends I’d consider inside the first 15-odd picks in dynasty drafts.

A Total Lack of Day 3 Quality

The emergence of NILs has led to fewer players foregoing their senior year in search of immediate NFL riches. When combined with changes to the transfer portal and Covid redshirt years, this led to an alarming lack of depth in this year’s draft class. Late round picks were considered of far less value by many teams, with reports suggesting a massive talent drop-off arrived early on day 3. As a result, you’ll notice that plenty of later round rookies will appear lower on depth charts than usual, with many more of draftees expected to miss the final roster than usual. Adjust your dynasty strategies accordingly.

My Final Mock Draft Results