With the NFL draft a month away, I’m shifting my focus to my annual mock drafts. I’m gunning for another Top 10 for NFL draft accuracy on Fantasy Pros and I hope these articles will help you get to know some of the big fantasy rookies you’ll be drafting this year. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. I’ll also be posting my thought on the non-fantasy relevant picks on Instagram as well.
My full Mock Draft is at the bottom of the article but today I’ll be discussing the main quarterback names you could see drafted on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
- Player: Caleb Williams
- School: USC
- Projected Pick: 1.01 to Chicago Bears
The Bears signaled their intent to draft a quarterback by trading former first rounder Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for peanuts. Ironically, the Bears also had the top pick last year but they traded it to the Panthers in exchange for a 2023 1st round pick, this 2024 1st round pick, two second round picks and DJ Moore. That 2024 1st round pick has become the first overall pick and will ultimately become Caleb Williams. There’s little doubt the Bears will select the USC star, though many on social media have already labelled Williams as a bust. Certainly, the youngster has made some curious decisions, most notably declining a medical at the NFL draft and refusing to speak to some NFL teams. But there’s also no doubt that Williams is an elite prospect who is good enough to elevate a loaded Bears squad into playoff contention in 2024. Williams has elite accuracy, great arm strength and vision with excellent on-field decision-making. He’s also a running threat, a key weapon most stud quarterbacks have these days. If the Bears can harness Williams’s potential and keep his ego in check, he’ll be the true franchise leader they’ve lacked for decades. He’ll also be the first quarterback off the board in most fantasy drafts.
- Player: Drake Maye
- School: North Carolina
- Projected Pick: 1.02 to Washington Commanders
The Commanders have clearly communicated to other teams that their 2nd overall pick is not for sale. The Washington franchise hasn’t had a quality quarterback since Kirk Cousins left in 2017, though it’s been even longer since they’ve seen any post-season success, with their last playoff victory coming in 2005. The Commanders will likely miss out on Caleb Williams (unless the Bears pull a surprise), but they still have two fantastic options left, with Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels both better prospects than any rookie QB drafted since Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Maye seems to be Washington’s preferred option, though don’t write Daniels off entirely. He is undoubtedly the safest pick which is unlikely to get him drafted first but, as we saw with CJ Stroud last year, it is more likely to lead to future NFL success. Drake is accurate with great vision, regularly making sound decisions, though he’s far from intercept-proof. Maye isn’t particularly mobile though, and he doesn’t have the big arm of most of this year’s prospects. But many of these criticisms could have been said of Tom Brady and we saw how that worked out. Maye won’t make it out of the Top 3 this April and will likewise be a Top 3 fantasy pick, though given his lack of mobility he’s unlikely to go ahead of Daniels or Williams in the NFL Draft.
- Player: Jayden Daniels
- School: LSU
- Projected Pick: 1.03 to New England Patriots
Reports suggest the Patriots favor Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye, though it remains to be seen which of the pair will fall to them at the 3rd overall pick. Regardless, the Patriots should be thrilled to get a guy who would be considered the top quarterback prospect in most drafts. Daniels has Lamar Jackson levels of athleticism. Although he didn’t run at the NFL combine, he is reported to have run a 4.50s 40 at ASU several years ago. Unlike Jackson though, Daniels is very accurate and throws very few interceptions. His ability to scramble has meant he rarely needs to force throws and the combination of his legs and decision-making make him fantastic for fantasy. While Williams should be the QB1 in rookie drafts, Daniels is a close QB2 who will only be hampered by the awful Patriots roster he’ll be leading.
- Player: JJ McCarthy
- School: Michigan
- Projected Pick: 1.11 to Minnesota Vikings
I would suggest it’s highly likely the Vikings move up to ensure they get McCarthy, as the Broncos will likely be sniffing around too and I wouldn’t totally rule out the Raiders either. There are plenty of variables here though, as some teams are quite low on McCarthy and may be happy to let the Vikings needlessly push themselves forward. I think it’s most likely that the Vikings trade up, maybe to 1.06 or 1.08, but because I’m not sure exactly where they’ll end up, I’m leaving them at 1.11 for now. McCarthy has a little Will Levis about him and is the most likely to bust of the top 6 quarterbacks this year. While the Michigan man has good strength and mobility, he lacks the accuracy and decision-making to make him NFL-ready just yet. These tools may develop but it does make this a real boom-bust pick. He will likely be the 4th quarterback drafted in fantasy rookie drafts, but he should go a long way behind the top 3.
- Player: Bo Nix
- School: Oregon
- Projected Pick: 2nd round or trade back in the 1st round to Denver Broncos
There’s a lot to like about Bo Nix. He’s a sensible quarterback who usually makes the right decisions and has the running ability to play inside and outside the pocket, while also picking up some yards on the ground. But he has a far lower ceiling than the other prospects, with his lack of arm strength and general play screaming system-QB. Having said that, although some suggest otherwise I do think he’s better than backup-level and deserves a starting job. The real question is whether the right team agrees. The Vikings have been making the kind of moves that suggest they want to ensure they stay in front of the Broncos; that doesn’t scream Bo Nix to me. On the other hand, I think Bo Nix would be a great Sean Payton-style passer who can sit behind Jarrett Stidham for half a season then step in once the Broncos are out of playoff contention. Whether the Broncos take Nix at 1.12, by trading back in the 1st round, or by packaging a few picks to trade up into the 2nd round or into the early 1st round (they lack a 2nd round pick), I think Nix is most likely headed to Denver. It’s also possible the Raiders like Nix, though given they traded for Gardner Minshew and still have Aiden O’Connell, I’m not convinced they’re willing to reach high enough to get Nix. Finally, don’t rule out the Giants on Day 2. Where you draft him in dynasty will depend on when and where he goes in April.
- Player: Michael Penix
- School: Washington
- Projected Pick: 2nd or 3rd round to Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Browns
There have been mock drafts that have Penix in the 1st round but I think that’s extremely unlikely. Penix is inaccurate by NFL standards and lacks the decision-making to make up for that. He profiles as an NFL backup who could go a little early if a team is impressed with his solid showing at the combine.
- Joe Milton
- School: Tennessee
- Projected Pick: Rounds 3-5
A strong-armed quarterback with major accuracy issues and no mobility, Joe Milton will be drafted as a backup by a team who hopes to somehow groom him into something.
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If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.
