With the NFL season approaching and the schedule released, it’s time to take a look ahead at how some teams might perform. Essentially, looking at win totals is predicting whether a team does better or worse than expected, and there’s some great value on the win totals for this upcoming season.
Teams that go over their win totals:
- New York Jets: 9.5
The Jets had arguably the most eventful off-season in the NFL, trading for former back-to-back MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Jets were held down by poor QB play last season, but with the weapons they have on both sides of the ball, along with their new toy under center, the Jets should go over their expected win total.
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5
The Super Bowl runner-ups didn’t go too crazy this off-season, other than on draft night. They added Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith to this already really solid defense and are running back the same offense as last season (which certainly isn’t an issue). Although they lost both their coordinators, I don’t see this team slowing down, and they should win 11-12 games this season.
- Denver Broncos: 8.5
The Broncos’ hire of Sean Payton is a home run for their franchise. He’s going to immediately make this defense better, and he gives Russell Wilson the best chance of looking like his former self. This team has good weapons and all the pieces to be good, and if it clicks, they’ll clear their win total.
Teams that go under their win totals:
- Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5
The Raiders are simply not a better team than they were last season when they won just six games. Jimmy Garoppolo is a downgrade from Derek Carr, no matter how you look at it. He hasn’t been able to prove that he can stay on the field, and the Raiders are going to ask him to do way more than he ever had to do in San Francisco. The defense is still bad, and they’re in a tough division. Give me the under.
- Tennessee Titans: 7.5
I was super surprised by the Titans’ win total being this high. They’re clearly in a rebuild. Tennessee added no veterans during the off-season and drafted their next QB in Will Levis. Ryan Tannehill is on his way out, and they just really aren’t that talented. I could see them moving Derrick Henry mid-season and securing a top-five pick in next year’s draft. It’s no longer the Titans’ division, and I like the under on their win total this season.
- Atlanta Falcons: 8.0
The only way to rationalize the Falcons’ win total being this high is their schedule. They have it pretty light and are in a bad division, but that doesn’t make them any better. Desmond Ridder is not a top-tier QB, and even with the addition of Bijan Robinson, this team isn’t that good. This is another team that’s in a rebuild, and eight wins feel just a bit too high for this Atlanta team.
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