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We made it. After a long, long wait, Week One of the NFL season is here. There’s always value to be had in the first week of the season, so let’s find it.
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Chris Olave over 66.5 receiving yards
This is the year that Chris Olave shows why he was picked in the top half of the NFL Draft last season. The quarterback play in New Orleans has improved significantly this offseason with the arrival of Derek Carr. Right away, the Saints get a plus matchup against a weak Titans defense. Tennessee gave up the most passing yards in the league last season, and their secondary hasn’t improved since. With Olave’s speed, it may only take a few catches for him to hit this line, but chances are it won’t be an issue. Especially with Alvin Kamara suspended for the first few games, Carr is going to come out throwing. Take the over on Chris Olave’s receiving yards in Week One.
Rachaad White over 44.5 rushing yards
All of a sudden, Rachaad White is the lead running back in Tampa Bay in just his second year, and his line is ridiculously low. There’s near-zero competition in the backfield for White, with undrafted free agent Sean Tucker being listed as the RB2 for the Bucs. Minnesota was middle-of-the-pack against the run last season, but with the questionable quarterback play in Tampa, it’s expected that they run the ball into the ground. The offensive line should open up some holes for White to take advantage of, and he should be able to eclipse 45 rushing yards.
Trevor Lawrence over 258.5 passing yards + Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions
In the last two games Trevor Lawrence played against the Colts, he didn’t reach this passing line. However, Trevor Lawrence also didn’t have Calvin Ridley to throw to last season. Even though he missed a full year on suspension, Ridley looks as ready as ever to take over as the go-to guy in Jacksonville as Lawrence’s No. 1 option. The cornerback room in Indy is… suspect, to say the least. Doug Pederson and Co. are looking to make a statement, and this is the game to do it. I expect both of these players to have quite the game, and these are two betting lines I love this week.
Cole Kmet over 2.5 receptions
Last season, Cole Kmet was the most targeted player on the Bears. It’s unclear why this line is at 2.5 since I expect Chicago to play the run and target D.J. Moore and Kmet in the short game. The Bears had the highest time of possession in the NFL last year, and there’s no reason they would change their approach with the same head coach and coaching staff. I expect Kmet to be a big part of their game plan against Green Bay, and even if he doesn’t have a massive game in terms of yardage, he should be targeted enough to hit the over on this line.
