With two new running backs in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny on the squad, we need to make some educated guesses on how the rushing load will shake out in Philadelphia. Especially when you consider the Hurts factor plus two incumbent backs still on the roster as of August 2nd.
I often see fantasy analysts try and compare the offensive rushing situations of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears as similar headaches. The prevailing thought is that it’s perhaps not worth investing too much in these backfields at fantasy drafts or auction drafts because their quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields, respectively) are the true number one running backs in their system. They demand so much of the groundwork and goal line work that all it leaves is scraps for the running backs as they fight for empty yards between the 20s.
While I understand the sentiment, the truth is these are wildly different situations. We do need to consider who is the right Chicago running back to roster on our teams this season. But Philadelphia is just in a whole other class when it comes to rushing opportunities for their team.
Philadelphia’s Rushing Environment is the Best in the NFL
Both Hurts and Fields rushed 160+ times in 2022, accounting for 29%-30% of their team’s total attempts. But that’s about where the similarities ended for these two squads on offense last season. The Eagles were 10th in seconds per play (28.2), while Chicago was 28th (30.3). Philadelphia was sixth in yards per play (5.8), while Chicago was 20th (5.3).
The Eagles secured 23.1 first downs per game last year (second in the NFL), while the Bears languished at 16.5 (29th overall).
Philadelphia was the second-best team at converting third downs. They were fourth in rushing first down percentage, and were second in red zone touchdowns per game. It’s true that both of these teams have quarterbacks who are demanding a large piece of the rushing pie. But what Hurts is leaving for the rest of his team is much more appealing than what Fields left on the plate for his rushers. Add in the best offensive line in the game, and this is running back Nirvana in Philly.
In that environment come Swift and Penny. Can one separate from the pack like Miles Sanders did in Philadelphia last year? Or are we headed for the dreaded committee approach?
D’Andre Swift Has Skills but Lacks the Consistency
Go back with me, if you will, to September 12th, 2022. It was the day after Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season. D’Andre Swift of the Lions was coming off a 15-carry, 144-yard, one-touchdown game. Add in three receptions for 31 yards, and fantasy managers who invested in him were at a full Nick Chubb. Well, you know the story from there, and things fell apart quickly.
Over the next five games, Swift would miss three with injury and combine for 12 rushing attempts and five receptions in the other two. After Swift returned from injury in Week 7, it was clear that: A) he was not the same explosive player and B) the Lions were turning the red zone over to Jamaal Williams. After Williams’ success, this really became his show. If you took the over on 15 rushing touchdowns for Williams last season, please let me know, as I need you to pick out my next Lotto numbers.
The story for Swift in 2022 became the same as 2020-2021. Missing a few games. Largely ineffective in the run game. Largely strong in the passing game. Considering the known deficiencies of the other new back on this Philadelphia roster, it seems the roles are likely to crystallize around their strengths.
Swift has been gaining momentum in drafts lately, now up to an ADP of 68 in NFC drafts. Knowing that Swift is likely a third-down, two-minute, passing-down back in this offense, that seems a little too steep for me. Swift is certainly more attractive in full PPR scoring, but there are so many other elite pass-catchers on the roster I would rather have Rachaad White or Dameon Pierce at similar average draft positions (ADPs).
Can Rashaad Penny Succeed With a Large Workload?
Rashaad Penny is a player who has been with us for quite some time. He debuted in 2018 at the age of 22 and spent the last five seasons with Seattle. The issue with Penny is we haven’t actually seen him much on the field in any of those seasons. He has played more than 10 games once, his rookie season in 2018. He has one season with more than 85 rushing attempts and has never seen more than 12 targets in one season.
But, when Penny is on the field, he has been exceptionally efficient. Only in 2020, when he had just 11 attempts in three injury-filled games, did Penny rush for less than 4.9 yards per carry. In 2021, Rashaad Penny led the NFL with 6.3 rushing yards per attempt. But whether because of injury or a player like Marshawn Lynch or Kenneth Walker ahead of him, Penny has more than 43% of Seattle’s snaps just once in five years.
Seattle gave him the Opening Day start, as it were, last season. He was averaging 6.1 yards per attempt through five games until an injury cost him the rest of his season, opening the door for Walker. After Seattle did not bring him back, Philadelphia brought him in on a one-year, $1.08 million contract that had several incentives tied to it.
Before Penny was hurt, he was ranked number one in the NFL in true yards per carry with 5.4. We know the talent is there, but this smells an awful lot like a 1A and 1B situation, with the Eagles aware that neither Swift nor Penny are likely to handle 200+ touches in a given season. If that’s the case, give me Penny at his NFC ADP of 109 all day long. It’s a tougher pill to swallow in PPR leagues, but Penny is likely the man at the goal line if Hurts doesn’t call his own number.
How Involved are Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott?
Yes, the rumors are true. When the Beastie Boys rapped, “So while you sit back and wonder why, I got this f*****g thorn in my side,” they were talking about Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. It seems like every team I had in 2022 with either Jalen Hurts, or Miles Sanders was constantly being vultured by Gainwell or Scott at the goal line or in a key passing down. But while it’s true that the pair can be a nuisance, the reality is they COMBINED for just 19% of the rushing attempts, 20% of the rushing yards, and 21% of the rushing scores in 2022.
They were almost identical players in rush attempts, yards, and scores (neither caught a receiving touchdown), so individually, they aren’t worth rostering unless there is an injury. But if both are still around, we must account for the fact that they will consume about 20% of the rushing work in a normal environment for the Eagles.
However, players like Boston Scott are already preparing for the possibility that one of them will be cut this offseason. It doesn’t make much sense for the Eagles to carry Scott, Gainwell, Swift and Penny when Swift can handle passing-down work, and Penny can handle the goal line. The likely cut candidate here is Boston Scott. His kick return abilities perhaps being the only thing the others can’t replace.
The most likely scenario is that one of these two is cut. That would leave D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny with about 85%-90% of the workload to share. I like grabbing Gainwell late in deep PPR leagues, but with Hurts, Swift and Penny ahead of them on the depth chart, these guys can’t do much except be annoying unless there is a significant injury.
For more from Ryan and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @CableBoxScore.
