NFL Training Camp Battles: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery

I’m sure someone in this vast fantasy football landscape has done some research on this, but I’m pretty sure the Detroit Lions did something unprecedented this off-season. After a 2022 season where they had two running backs combine for 12 top-20 fantasy finishes in their 17 games, they just said “buh bye” to both of them. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both had games last year that you could only describe as extraordinary. They helped bring the Lions to the brink of a playoff game. And now they’re both gone.

But don’t fear, Detroit diehards! There is a chance that the 2023 running game could be even better. Swift and Williams may be gone, but do everything David Montgomery signed from Chicago, and the Lions spent the 12th overall pick in the draft on lightning bolt running back Jahmyr Gibbs out of Alabama.

For the Lions, this is a great solution. Two potentially complimentary and interchangeable parts in the backfield. But for fantasy managers, this is setting up to be another timeshare headache as we approach peak draft season. Who can we trust at their ADP this summer, and will one distance themselves from the other as the Lions look to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016?

Let’s dive into this fascinating training camp position battle between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Jahmyr Gibbs Could Be a Better D’Andre Swift

Whenever I look back at D’Andre Swift’s box scores and see him put up lines like Week 1 last season (144 rushing yards, 31 receiving yards, one score), I feel like Ewan McGregor yelling at Hayden Christiansen. “You were the chosen one!” A top-35 pick out of powerhouse Georgia, he was supposed to be the Lions’ savior at running back they needed ever since his holiness Barry Sanders retired. But after injury and inconsistency, Swift is gone to Philadelphia, and Detroit is hoping the new, fresher model in Jahmyr Gibbs lives up to the hype.

Gibbs, the 12th overall pick out of Alabama, truly has it all. He handled more than 15 touches per game in 2022 in a punishing SEC. He caught 44 balls for 44 receiving yards. At the combine, he posted a 99th percentile 40-yard dash core and a 91st percentile speed score. He is just 21 years old and comes straight out of a running back laboratory at 5-foot-9 and 200 pounds.

Gibbs is a do-it-all runner who projects to be able to handle 15+ touches right out of the gate and has shiftiness, elusiveness and burst to make people miss right away. But the question is, do the Lions let him handle that load after bringing in some stiff competition in David Montgomery? It came under a different regime, but Swift saw 15+ touches just six times in his 2020 rookie season, although that came with 57 targets and more than a 55% snap share in six of his games.

I expect an ease-him-in approach for Gibbs to start the year, but Montgomery’s targets and rushing attempts have declined for three straight seasons. It won’t be long before Gibbs and his high first-round draft capital takes 60%+ of the rushing.

David Montgomery Comes to Detroit, Might Still be His Team’s RB2

Let’s face it, Justin Fields was the Bears’ RB1 last season. Fields rushed 41 fewer times than Montgomery (201 to 160) but gained 332 more yards (801 to 1,143). Montgomery’s 40 targets were his lowest since his rookie season of 2019 (35 targets), even though he played 16 games, two more than in any other season in his short career. But after the Lions saw their entire running back room depart (including likable Hard Knocks performer Justin Jackson!), they signed Montgomery to a long three-year $18 million contract with a $4.5 million signing bonus and $11 million guaranteed. That’s a lot of drip, as the kids say, so Detroit clearly saw something they want in their offensive rotation.

Their next potential out without losing a ton of money is after the 2024 season, so Montgomery is going to be around during Gibbs’ highest-potential years, assuming there is no injury. The issue, of course, is that Montgomery and Gibbs both have similar tools in their toolbox. Both are shifty runners (Montgomery had the ninth-best juke rate last year at 34.5%), and both catch a ton of passes (Montgomery’s 12% target share was 12th among running backs).

There is no clear lightning and thunder option here. Both can play three downs. Both can play in the hurry-up. And both can score around the goal line (Montgomery had 37 red zone touches even with Justin Fields last season).

With overlapping skill sets, it seems Montgomery, the veteran, will get the Lions’ share of the workload to start until Gibbs is ready to be more fully deployed. Just because we might see Montgomery get 65% of the snaps in Week 1 doesn’t mean he will sniff close to that by the end of the year.

Who Else is Around to Mess up This Backfield?

The positive piece of news for those looking to invest in the Lions’ backfield is there that there are basically just a couple of chewed-up carcasses left in the running back room to compete for time. Despite being a Hard Knocks favorite in 2022, Craig Reynolds saw 32 total touches and has less than 100 for his entire four-year career.

Jermar Jefferson, and 2021 seventh-round draft pick, didn’t play a snap in 2022 and is no threat for much beyond special teams unless there is a long-term injury to someone.

So all that leaves us to consider is the ADP game. In early NFBC drafts, Gibbs is off the board as RB15 at pick 43. Montgomery is going as the RB28 around pick 81. If my predictions are correct, Montgomery should be able to easily pay off that price tag for at least the first half of the 2023 season. But that’s when things are likely to get interesting. The Lions come out of their November 5th bye week with games against the Chargers (dead last in opponents’ rushing yards per attempt in 2022), Bears (27th), Packers (28th) and Saints (20th).

That could be a nice stretch to begin deploying Gibbs in a more substantial. Gibbs drafters will need to be patient through the season’s first half but are likely to be rewarded with a nice playoff run.