NFL Week 1 Takeaways

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The NFL season is officially underway after an exciting Week 1 worth of football. There are plenty of fantasy nuggets to take away from Sunday’s action in Week 1. It’ll be my honor to inform you of some stats and key fantasy takeaways. I will look at every game from Sunday and provide some insight moving forward each week this season. Without further ado… 

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Panthers at Falcons 

The first overall pick in the 2023 draft, Bryce Young, was 20/38 for 146 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Hayden Hurst paced Carolina with seven targets for five catches with 41 yards and one touchdown. Hurst had an 18.4% target share in Week 1 against Atlanta’s defense, which was the third-worst fantasy defense against TE’s in 2022.

Takeaway: Last season, only three TEs (Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews) averaged seven targets a game. The Panthers play New Orleans Saints in Week 2, who allowed zero catches on two targets to TEs against the Titans in Week 1. Hurst should be a speculative add to teams looking for TE help but may want to temper expectations against the Saints in Week 2.   

Texans at Ravens

The Texans trailed the entire game, forcing rookie C.J. Stroud to throw 44 times in Week 1. WR Nico Collins led Houston with 11 targets, securing six catches for 80 yards. WR Robert Woods also had six catches for 57 yards off 10 targets. Collins averaged six targets in 2022, and if he is going to average nearly double-digit targets in what appears to be another rebuild for the Texans, he is poised to lead the Texans in all receiving categories. Woods looks to be the safety blanket for Stroud.

Takeaway: Collins should be a top waiver add going into Week 2 as the Texans face the Colts at home. These same Colts allowed the top WR for Jacksonville to amass eight grabs and go over the century mark with a TD despite being one of 12 teams to allow 30 points or fewer to WRs in 2022.

Bengals at Browns 

Joe Burrow was not the Burrow we all know. The lack of offense for the Bengals could be due to no preseason time together for Burrow and his passing corps. They’ll bounce back at home to the Ravens, who allowed six receptions to each of the top 2 wideouts for the Texans.

Chubb led the Browns offense with 18 carries and added a fantasy-friendly four receptions in Week 1, but in a surprise, Jerome Ford received 15 carries despite losing a fumble in the first quarter. Perhaps the rain affected the play-calling for the Browns, but Deshaun Watson didn’t look great. Cleveland lined up with the most five-wide sets in the preseason, so maybe Amari Cooper, three receptions for 37 yards off seven targets, bounces back. Elijah Moore did see seven targets and paced the Browns with three catches for 43 yards.

Takeaway: The Browns travel to Pittsburgh, who allowed 188 yards on the ground off 34 carries to the 49ers in Week 1. Chubb should be a top-5 option at RB next week, and Ford makes for an intriguing waiver. Add an insurance policy for teams with Chubb shares. The Steelers were one of five teams to allow a WR to go over 100 yards, so fire up Cooper next week, and Moore could be a sneaky Flex start for Week 2.

Jaguars at Colts 

The Jaguars offense provided fantasy goodness to teams with shares in the passing and running game. Calvin Ridley led the Jags with eight receptions for 101 yards and one TD off 11 targets. He also had a 24-yard reception called back due to a penalty. Ridley had a ridiculous 34% target share in his first game with Trevor Lawrence. Only six WR’s averaged double-digit targets in 2022. It’s fair to say Ridley looks to be back to old dominant ways. Travis Etienne received 18 carries for 77 yards and one TD and added five catches for 27 yards off five targets. Etienne could be entering into the RB1 conversation.

Anthony Richardson could be in store for a huge Jalen Hurts-esque fantasy season. He rushed 10 times for 40 yards and one TD while racking up 37 pass attempts, finishing with 223 yards in the air with one TD and one interception. Richardson was one of two QB’s with 10 rushing attempts in Week 1. His head coach and play-caller,  Shane Steichen, has a proven track record with QBs.  

Takeaway: The Jaguars face the Chiefs at home next week. Kansas City allowed the 8th most points to WRs a season ago, and they are still without Chris Jones as of now. Start Ridley and Evan Engram, and look for Christian Kirk to bounce back following his one reception for 9 yards. The Chiefs were better against the run last year and only allowed 3.5 yards per carry to the Lions on Thursday Night Football.

The Colts head to Houston, who allowed Lamar Jackson to pass for 169 yards and rush for 38 yards. Richardson and the Colts may regress in Week 2 as the Texans’ defense allowed the fewest points to fantasy QBs in 2022. 

Buccaneers at Vikings

Mike Evans led the way for the Buccaneers with 10 targets, securing six grabs for 66 yards and one TD. He had four more targets than target-hog Chris Godwin, who ended the game with five catches for 51 yards.

Takeaway: Godwin averaged nine targets, and Evans averaged eight targets in 2022. After one game, I would not forecast Evans to have more targets than Godwin, but you never know with Baker Mayfield. It’s a good time to sell high on Evans or hold, hoping he gets traded by mid-season due to ending his contract extension talks.

Titans at Saints 

David Carr and Chris Olave quickly garnered chemistry in the offseason and showcased it in Week 1. Olave ended with 10 targets, 33% target share, with eight receptions for 112 yards. Olave averaged eight targets in 2022, and if he can maintain or increase his targets in 2023, he’ll continue his ascension into WR1 status by year’s end. I will note the Titans allowed the most fantasy points to WRs in 2022.

Takeaway: Olave and the Saint turned their sights to a showdown with the Carolina Panthers, who allowed the fourth most fantasy points to WRs in 2022. The Panthers didn’t see a ton of passing volume against the Falcons in Week 1, but look for the Saints to rely on Derek Carr. Rashid Shaheed, who had five catches for 89 yards and one TD, should be a waiver option in deep leagues. 

49ers at Steelers 

Brandon Aiyuk is the biggest beneficiary, with Brock Purdy under center for the 49ers. He averaged seven targets last season and opens the 2023 season with eight catches for 129 yards and two TDs on eight targets. Christian McCaffrey leads all RBs in Week 1 with 152 yards and one TD, along with three receptions. Elijah Mitchell only had five carries in Week 1. Deebo Samuel appears to be the third option in the pecking order. 

Takeaway: The 49ers head to Los Angeles to face their division rivals, who held Geno Smith to 112 yards passing and the Seahawk’s running game to only 85 yards. What’s noteworthy is the Rams were the 10th friendliest fantasy passing defense to WRs in 2022, allowing 70% of points from the outside where Aiyuk plays. In addition, the Rams were ranked 11th friendliest defense to running backs in 2022. Who will prevail? My guess is the Niners’ skill players will ball out. 

Cardinals at Commanders 

Brian Robinson is poised to lead the Commanders as their head RB. He scored the only TD for the Commanders on a seven-yard TD catch and finished with 19 carries for 59 yards.

Takeaway: Antonio Gibson had three carries and lost a fumble in the first quarter. Despite playing more snaps than Robinson, he did not see another carry the rest of the game. The Commanders are headed to Denver in Week 2, who were the 12th friendliest defense to RBs a season ago. However, they held Josh Jacobs to 48 yards on 19 carries. Robinson is the running back to roster in Washington but will be a low-end RB2/flex play moving forward.   

Packers at Bears 

Jordan Love continued the Packer way in defeating the Bears and was one of three QBs to throw for three TDs in Week 1, finishing the game 15/27 for 245 yards. It should be noted he didn’t have his best WR on the field and put up the third most points for a QB in Week 1. Love spread the ball around with four pass catchers having at least four targets and no more than five targets.

Takeaway: The Packers head to Atlanta, who allowed the 12th most fantasy points to QBs and the 11th most to WRs in 2022. Love should be a top-15 QB option for Week 2. If Watson is healthy, look for him to make a season debut in fashion.

Raiders at Broncos 

Jakobi Meyers paced the Raiders with 10 targets, nine receptions with 81 yards and two TDs. At the time of this article, he’s being evaluated for a concussion. We wish him a speedy recovery at Razzball. His teammate Davante Adams saw nine targets and added six receptions for 66 yards in his first start with Jimmy Garoppolo. No other Raider WR saw more than one target. The Broncos allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs in 2022.  

Takeaway: The Raiders travel to Buffalo to face the Bills following the Bills Monday Night Football game. Despite being considered a top defense in real football, they allowed the 5th most points to WRs in 2022. If Meyers is out, look for Adams to have a more significant role and see a ton of targets.

Dolphins at Chargers

This game showcased the highest-scoring QB in Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa (466 yards and three TDs), and the highest-scoring WR in Week 1, Tyreek Hill (15 targets, 11 catches with 215 yards and two TDs). These two Fins picked up right where they left off before Tua’s concussion concerns last season.

On the other side of the ball, Austin Ekeler rushed for 177 yards and one TD off 16 carries and added four receptions for 47 yards. Joshua Kelley also saw 16 carries for 91 yards and one touchdown. 

Takeaway: The Dolphins head to Foxboro in Week 2, where the Patriots ranked in the middle of the pack for allowing fantasy points to QBs and WRs. New England was exploited out the outside, allowing 66% of their fantasy points to WRs who lined up out wide.

The Chargers are off to Tennessee, who was the third-best defense against RBs in 2022 and allowed the most points to WRs in 2022. I imagine the Chargers game plan will be pass-heavy after throwing only 33 times against the Dolphins, increasing the value of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Ekeler out of the backfield. 

Eagles at Patriots 

The Eagles WR duo of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith each saw 10 targets with seven receptions, with the touchdown going to Smith. Kenneth Gainwell led Philadelphia with 14 carries for 54 yards. Boston Scott and D’Andre Swift each had one carry and one reception.

Mac Jones was one of two QBs with at least 300 yards and three passing touchdowns in Week 1. Jones attempted 54 passes and distributed the ball evenly, with six pass catchers seeing six targets or more.  

Takeaway: Start Eagles pass catchers confidently as they face the Vikings at home, who allowed the second most fantasy points to WRs in 2022. If you need to start an RB, Gainwell holds the most value until we see anything differently.

As for the Patriots, who face the Dolphins at home, look for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot to be the focal points of the offense. Miami allowed the seventh most receiving yards to running backs in 2022 and allowed the Chargers duo of Ekler and Kelley to rush for a combined 208 yards.

Rams at Seahawks 

Cam Akers was the most inefficient running back in Week 1 with 22 carries for 29 but added a rushing touchdown. Rookie Puka Nacua made his best Cooper Kupp impression by accumulating 15 targets with 10 receptions for 119 yards. Tutu Atwell finished with six catches for 119 yards.

Takeaway: The demise of the Rams was greatly exaggerated. Kidding aside, the Rams face the 49ers in Los Angeles, who allowed the sixth most fantasy points to WRs a season ago. Nacua and Atwell should be waiver adds in all leagues for the next three weeks and enter the WR3 consideration next week, but be mindful of Kupp’s possible return after Week 4.

Cowboys at Giants 

The Cowboys’ defense and special teams left their mark in this game. Tony Pollard picked up where he left off last season with 17 carries for  70 yards and two TDs. Darren Waller provided three catches for 36 yards off five targets for the Giants. 

Takeaway: The Cowboys head home to face the new-look Jets, who we will see tonight against the Bills. The Jets allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs and were ranked in the bottom third in allowing fantasy points to running backs in 2022. The Jets were susceptible to running backs catching the ball out of the backfield, so look for the Cowboys to rely on Pollard in the flats. 

Waller will rebound in Week 2 as the Cardinals allowed the most receptions to TEs in 2022. My bold prediction is that he will be the TE1 in Week 2.