Week 10’s slate is, once again, not pretty. But like last week, just because the slate isn’t great on paper doesn’t mean the games won’t be exciting. There’s a lot of value to be had on my plays this week, so here are my best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.
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Lions ML @ Chargers (-148) and over 48.5
The Chargers routed the Jets on Monday Night Football, but it wasn’t a great game for them. Justin Herbert threw for just over 130 yards and was sacked five times. The only reason this game wasn’t closer was because the Jets, well, couldn’t score and kept turning the ball over. The Chargers’ secondary is still not good, and the Lions are going to take advantage of that. They’re well rested coming off their bye week and will have David Montgomery back. The Lions are still one of the best teams in the NFC and should put up enough points to just outscore the Chargers. This game will most likely end up a shootout, and it has the potential to be the game of the week. Both offenses are better than their defenses, so I expect this game to go over with the Lions pulling out the win.
GB/PIT under 38.5
Both the Packers and Steelers’ offenses have been disappointing this season. The Steelers’ defense should make it a tough afternoon for Jordan Love after he struggled against the Rams last week. Similarly, no matter who the Steelers are playing, it seems like they can’t get their offense going, either. This game will be won on the ground, and whether that favors Green Bay or Pittsburgh, this game will be low-scoring. Take the under.
Cardinals ML vs. Falcons (+106)
Kyler Murray will finally make his return this week after tearing his ACL last season. The Cardinals were staying in games when Josh Dobbs was under center, and now they have the arm and legs of Murray. People have been underrating Murray, but he’s still a more-than-viable option for Arizona. The Falcons have a solid defense, but with Taylor Heinicke under center, I can’t see them being able to outscore the Cardinals’ offense. As underdogs at home, I like the Cardinals to win this one outright.
Broncos +7 @ Bills (-105)
If there’s anything we’ve learned about the Bills the last two seasons, it’s that they love to play down to their competition. They allow any team, no matter how bad they are, to stay in games. Denver will definitely have their hands full with Buffalo, but with the injuries the Bills have on defense, there’s a script on how to stay in games against them. If Russell Wilson can feed Jerry Jeudy over the middle and control the time of possession, the Broncos can stay in this game and keep it within one score.
