NFL Week 13 Takeaways

The fantasy playoff push is here, and I hope you are ready. With one week remaining before the postseason in most leagues, let’s take a look at Week 13 and get you prepared for playoff seeding in Week 14.

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Colts at Titans

Gardner Minshew led the Colts to their fourth-straight victory as he threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. saw a Week 13-high 16 targets, securing 11 receptions for 105 yards and one TD. Pittman has caught at least eight balls in five consecutive games, totaling 46 catches, which ranks fourth over that span. Alec Pierce had three grabs for 100 yards and one TD, his first 100-yard receiving game and first TD of the season. Josh Downs was quiet with three catches for 14 yards. Zack Moss disappointed with Jonathan Taylor out due to thumb surgery, as he totaled 19 carries for 51 yards and two catches for six yards.

Derrick Henry rushed 21 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns, which marked his second consecutive game with two rushing TDs and his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 7. Unfortunately, Henry left the game due to a concussion and didn’t return. Tyjae Spears had 16 carries for 75 yards. Safe to say he will be more involved if Henry misses next week. Spears is just rostered in 35% of leagues and should be the number one waiver priority. DeAndre Hopkins paced the Titans with five receptions for 75 yards on 12 targets.

Takeaway:

• The surprising Colts face the Bengals, who play tonight against Jacksonville. Cincinnati’s pass defense allows the 14th most points to QBs, 12th to WRs, and second to TEs. RBs score at the 12th highest rate, so look for Moss to have a better output. I would start the Colts with confidence.    
• Tennessee will travel to Miami, facing an above-average defense. From a fantasy perspective, they are middle of the pack against QBs and WRs but are 11^th against RBs. The Dolphins are holding opponents to 15.8 points per game over their last five games. I would be uneasy starting a Titan if Henry were to miss next week. Although, Spears would garner lots of touches as the lead back.

Lions at Saints

Sam LaPorta had a career-high 140 receiving yards with one touchdown and secured a career-high nine balls on nine targets. LaPorta finished as TE1 this week. David Montgomery tallied 18 carries for 56 yards and one touchdown. Montgomery became the fourth RB with 10 TDs on the season and has scored a TD in every game he’s played (9) but one due to injury. Jahmyr Gibbs led the Lions in rushing with 60 yards on just eight carries. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught one TD between two catches on six targets for 49 yards, which were all season-lows.

Alvin Kamara paced the Saints with 14 carries for 51 yards with two scores and six receptions for 58 yards on eight targets as the RB1 for Week 13. Kamara leads all RBs in the NFL with 60 receptions despite missing the first three games of the season and currently has a streak of seven consecutive games with at least four receptions. As I expected, we got a Taysom Hill game due to injuries plaguing New Orleans, and I hope you started him. Hill was 0/2 passing but led the Saints in rushing with 13 carries for 59 yards with one score and added two catches for 15 yards. Chris Olave saw eight targets, catching five for 119 yards, which was his second consecutive game with 100+ receiving yards. Derek Carr was carted off with a concussion, but hopefully, he can return next week. 

Takeaway:

• Next up for Detroit is a road game in Chicago. When the Lions played the Bears in Week 11, they put up 31 points at home. The game script should be in favor of Montgomery and Gibbs, who each scored in the Week 11 matchup, as Chicago allows the 14th most points, the most receiving yards, and second-most receptions to RBs. The Bears’ passing defense allows the 10^th most points to QBs but is middle of the pack to WRs and TEs. Goff on the road is a different QB and he has three interceptions in Week 11.
• The Saints will host the Panther’s defense which allows the sixth-fewest points to QBs, fourth-fewest points to WRs, and the 10^th-fewest points to TEs this season. RBs fare much better as Carolina allows the third-most points and a league-high 20 TDs with 17 rushing scores. These teams played in Week 2, but the Saints were without Kamara. Expect a heavy dosage of Kamara and Hill out of the backfield, regardless of the QB situation in NOLA.

Dolphins at Commanders

Miami saw the return of a healthy De’Von Achane, and he delivered rushing 17 times for 73 yards with two TDs and caught three passes for 30 days. He has the makings of an RB1 the rest of the way in this high-powered offense. I say that, but don’t forget about Raheem Mostert who ran 11 times for 43 yards and one TD. He is second in the NFL with 16 total TDs. Tyreek Hill was WR4 this week, catching five passes for 157 yards and two TDs on seven targets. Hill has three consecutive games over 100+ receiving yards and leads the NFL with eight games over 100 receiving yards. Tua Tagovailoa orchestrated the offense, completing 17/24 for 280 yards and two touchdowns.

Just when you thought Brian Robinson Jr. was earning the majority of the work in Washington, he sustained a hamstring injury in the first half after turning seven carries into 53 yards. Antonio Gibson led the backfield with 10 carries for 35 yards and four grabs for 37 yards. Chirs Rodriguez Jr. saw seven carries for 29 yards. Sam Howell and the offense have taken a step backward over the last three weeks, averaging 14.6 points per game. Things don’t get easier for them as they face the Rams, Jets, and 49ers.

Takeaway:  

• Miami will host the Titans, who allow the eighth most points to WRs and have been burned on the outside all season. Hill could get to 200 yards in this one. Tennessee is in the middle of the pack against QBs and RBs. Miami skill players will be sure bets to have great Week 14 production.
• The Commanders have a bye in Week 14 and travel to Hollywood in Week 15 to face the Rams who are allowing 17.25 points per game to opponents over their last four games.

49ers at Eagles

 The Niners are a well-oiled machine from top to bottom. Brock Purdy was the QB1 this week, completing 19/27 for 314 yards and four touchdowns. This marks the second time this season Purdy has thrown 4 TDs and has accumulated 11 TDs over his last four games, ranking second behind Dak Prescott (13). Christian McCaffrey rushed 17 times for 93 yards with one TD and caught three passes for 40 yards. Just another day in the office for McCaffrey, who leads the NFL with 17 TDs. Deebo Samuel was Week 13’s WR2 after catching four passes for 116 yards with two TDs and one rushing score. Samuel now has five scores over the past four weeks.  Brandon Aiyuk led San Fran WRs with seven targets, securing five for 46 yards and one TD. Aiyuk has scored a receiving touchdown in four consecutive weeks, which is tied with CeeDee Lamb for the longest active receiving-TD streak. George Kittle was productive, with four catches for 68 yards.

Philadelphia was forced to pass in this one, only rushing 18 times for 46 yards as a team. D’Andre Swift left the game late in the fourth quarter after taking a big hit. His status for next week is unclear. Jalen Hurts completed 26/45 for 298 yards with one passing TD and rushed for 20 yards with one rushing score. Hurt’s rushing score was the first QB rushing TD on the 49ers this season. A.J. Brown led the Eagles with 13 targets, catching eight balls for 114 yards. DeVonta Smith caught nine passes for 96 yards and one TD on 11 targets. Smith looks poised to finish the fantasy season as a high-end WR2 as he has scored at least one TD or compiled at least 96 yards in five consecutive games.

Takeaway:  

• San Francisco will host the Seahawks after scoring 31 against them in Week 12 on Thanksgiving. The Seahawks are the sixth-friendliest defense to RBs, allowing the seventh most passing yards and the second-most rushing TDs to RBs. Seattle is average against QBs but allows the eighth-most to WRs. Get the 49ers in your lineup. 
• Next up for the Eagle is a rematch against the Cowboys in Big D. Dallas allowed 28 points to Philadelphia in Week 9 but is holding opponents to 18 points per game this season. They allow the sixth-fewest points to RBs, the ninth-fewest to WRs, and the 14th-fewest to QBs. Despite a tough matchup, you have to start your Eagles.

Browns at Rams

The Rams are making a surprising postseason push, which bodes well for Rams’ fantasy shareholders. The Rams scored 36 points against a top-five defense as Matthew Stafford passed for 279 yards with three touchdowns. Kyren Williams rushed 21 times for 88 yards with one score. Puka Nacua tallied four receptions for 105 yards with one TD and 34 rushing yards, which marked Nacua’s first 100-yard game since Week 7. Cooper Kupp caught six passes for 39 yards and one TD. This marked the first time Kupp and Nacua each caught a TD in the same game this season.

Joe Flacco got the start for the Browns, completing 22/44 for 254 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. I can’t believe it’s 2023, and we’re talking about Flacco. Elijah Moore was his favorite option, drawing 12 targets while securing four balls for a team-high 83 yards. Kareem Hunt rushed a team-high 12 times for 48 yards. Jerome Ford carried the ball nine times for 19 yards, with three receptions for 33 yards and a receiving TD. Amari Cooper left the game in the second quarter after a concussion forced him out.

Takeaway:  

• LA Rams have another tough test going against the top-rated Baltimore defense. The Ravens allow the fewest points to QBs, the second-fewest to WRs, and the ninth-fewest to RBs. I cannot recommend starting a Rams skill player, but I wouldn’t blame you if you rolled the dice with Nacua, Kupp, or Williams.  
• The Browns will host the Jaguars in Week 14. Jacksonville allows the fourth-fewest points to RBs but allows most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to RBs. The Jags’ defense is susceptible in the air allowing the third-most to QBs and sixth-most points to WRs. However, with injuries to the Browns’ offense, who knows what this offense will look like. It appears Ford has the safest floor as the preferred pass-catching back in Cleveland.

Chiefs at Packers  

On a cold night in Lambeau, Jordan Love completed 25/36 for 267 yards with three TDs, keeping the Pack in the playoff picture. Love has an 8/0 TD: INT ratio over his last three games and has been the third-best fantasy QB over the past month. Christian Watson caught seven balls for 71 yards and two scores. Romeo Doubs tallied a team-high 72 yards on four catches. AJ Dillon received his second consecutive start at RB, totaling 73 rushing yards on 18 carries.

Isiah Pacheco led the Chiefs offense with 18 attempts for 110 yards with one TD and secured three passes for 13 yards. Over Pacheco’s last four games, he is averaging 19.25 touches per game. Patrick Mahomes threw 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Travis Kelce paced Kansas City’s pass catchers with four receptions for 81 yards on five targets. Rashee Rice drew a team-high nine targets, catching eight passes for 64 yards.

Takeaway:  

• The Packers will look for their fourth consecutive victory on Monday Night Football against the Giants in Week 14. New York allows the 13^th-fewest fantasy points to WRs but allows the fifth-most points to WRs and RBs. Green Bay is rolling right now behind Love, and I don’t see them slowing down next week.
• The Chiefs face their postseason rival, the Buffalo Bills, in Week 14. The Bills defense is not as formidable as past seasons but ranks in the bottom half against QBs, TEs, RBs, and WRs. I suspect this game is going to be a high-scoring affair, so outside of the usual suspects for KC, I feel good about Rice’s prospects in this one.

Notables:

• Nico Collins caught a career-high nine passes for another career-high 191 yards with one TD. Collins looks to be the WR1 in Houston, with Tank Dell out for the season with a fractured fibula.
• Courtland Sutton caught another TD with 77 receiving yards. Sutton is third in the NFL with nine receiving TDs.
• Mike Evans tied a season-high with 12 targets, securing seven for 162 yards and one score. Evans has five TDs over the last four weeks and is second in the NFL with 10 TDs. This game put Evans over 1,000 receiving yards for his 10^th consecutive season. It is really impressive when you think about who his QBs have been.
• Rachaad White had another productive Sunday, rushing 20 times for 84 yards with one TD while catching three passes for 22 yards. Due to a slew of injuries, White is entering RB1 territory entering the fantasy playoffs.
• Chuba Hubbard has taken over as the top back in Carolina with a Week 13-high 25 carries for 104 yards and two scores. He finished at the RB5 in Week 13 and is the lone bright spot for the Panthers.
• Bijan Robinson compiled 21 touches, rushing 18 times for 53 yards and catching three passes for 26 yards. This marks the third consecutive week Robinson has had at least 19 touches. All we can ask for are the touches, and I feel he’ll deliver in the fantasy postseason.
• The Jets offense is a dump fire, which is such a shame with the talent with Breece Hall and Garret Wilson. It’s hard to have confidence with their QB carousel.  
• Rhamondre Stevenson sustained an ankle injury and didn’t return. Hate to see it and hope he can return soon. I had high hopes for Stevenson during the fantasy postseason.
• Ezekiel Elliott was the next man up for New England with 17 carries for 52 yards and four receptions for 40 yards. He may earn a spot start in a short week against Pittsburgh.
• James Connor was the fourth-best RB this week, posting a Week 13-high 25 carries for 105 yards and two TDs.
• Trey McBride was the TE2, securing eight balls for 89 yards and one TD on nine targets.     

 

Bye Week Update

• Week 14 Byes include Cardinals and Commanders. Adjust your lineups accordingly!
• Week 13 Bye Week schedule is Baltimore vs LA Rams, Buffalo at Kansas City, Chicago vs. Detroit, Las Vegas vs. Minnesota, and NY Giants vs. Green Bay. 

 

🚨 Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage Update 🚨 

• Miami leads the NFL with 75%. Rounding out the top 10 are Buffalo (67%), Baltimore (65%), San Francisco(65%), LA Chargers (64%), Arizona (63%), LA Rams (63%), Philadelphia (61%), Washington (61%) and Cincinnati (59%).
• The bottom five teams in Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages are the NY Jets (27%), NY Giants (40%), Tennessee (41%), Pittsburgh (42%) and Tampa Bay (47%).

 

Thanks for your time checking out Week 13 takeaways. While you are here, check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jefferson__21. 

If I did not mention your favorite team or players, please leave some comments or questions! I am here to answer any questions you may have. Cheers!