The fantasy playoffs are here! It’s our glorious purpose as fantasy players. I hope you make it out of the first round unless you are my opponent. Kidding aside, let’s take a look at my Week 15 takeaways and look ahead to Week 16.
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Jets at Dolphins
Without Tyreek Hill for Miami, Jaylen Waddle came up clutch with eight catches for 142 yards on nine targets, including a 60-yard touchdown. Waddle was the WR2 in Week 15. Raheem Mostert rushed 15 times for 42 yards and two TDs. Mostert becomes the first player to register 20 total touchdowns (18 rushing and two receiving). Tua Tagovailoa completed 21/24 for 224 yards and one TD.
I thought the Jets might be taking off but they will stay grounded for the foreseeable future. We should have known last week’s performance was an aberration.
The fantasy playoffs are here! It’s our glorious purpose as fantasy players. I hope you make it out of the first round unless you are my opponent. Kidding aside, let’s take a look at my Week 15 takeaways and look ahead to Week 16.
Takeaway:
- The Dolphins host the Cowboys in Week 16, who boast one of the best defenses, but like the Bills matchup this week, you have to start Tua, Mostert, Hill, and Waddle.
- Hard to have any confidence in Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson in the second-round playoff matchups or Championship games against the Browns in Cleveland.
Chiefs at Patriots
We got the better version of Patrick Mahomes as he passed for 305 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Isiah Pacheco missed his second game, and the Chiefs RB room was busy filling out the stat sheet. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed 13 times for 37 yards and added four catches for 64 yards with one TD. Jerrick McKinnon threw for a TD and caught a TD pass. Rashee Rice surpassed Travis Kelce in the pecking order as he again led the Chiefs with nine targets, securing all nine for 91 yards and one touchdown. Kelce tallied five grabs for 28 yards on seven targets.
The Patriots offense is sputtering and this is the time to stay away from them. Ezekiel Elliot got the start with Rhamondre Stevenson out, finishing with 25 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards. Hunter Henry led all pass catchers with seven receptions for 66 yards with one touchdown.
Takeaway:
- Next up for the Chiefs is a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders have an above-average passing defense but are most vulnerable to RBs as they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the 11th-most points to RBs. If Pacheco is out again, I think CEH might be the preferred play over McKinnon.
- New England travels to Mile High for Sunday Night Football. The Broncos are allowing the second most points to RBs and the most points to TEs, which makes Zek and Henry intriguing streams, but I am leaning away from them.
Buccaneers at Packers
Baker Mayfield completed 22/28 threw a Week 15-high 381 yards and a season-high four touchdowns. Mayfield was QB2. Rachaad White rushed 21 times for 89 yards and added two grabs for 50 yards and one touchdown. Chris Godwin saw a team-high 12 targets, catching 10 for 155 yards, both of which were Week-15 highs for WRs. Mike Evans tallied four receptions for 57 yards and one touchdown.
The Packers were without Christian Watson but saw the return of Aaron Jones, who rushed 13 times for 53 yards and caught four balls for 16 yards. Jordan Love was 29/39 for 284 yards and two touchdowns. Jayden Reed caught six passes for 52 yards and one TD on a team-high eight targets. Dontayvion Wicks posted six catches for 97 yards. Top TE streamer, Tucker Kraft was impressive with four receptions for 57 yards and one TD.
Takeaway:
- Tampa Bay will host Florida rival Jaguars. Jacksonville allows the third-most points to QBs and ninth-most points to WRs, making Evans a must-start. I’d consider Godwin as a flex play after his recent performance. White will have a tougher matchup on paper as the Jags give up the 12th-fewest points and eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs. The Jags do give up the most receptions and third-most receiving yards to RBs while helping White’s floor, but he’s a must-start player anyhow.
- The Pack head to Carolina, who allow the third-most points to RBs and the most rushing TDs with 18. Jones came away from this game unscathed and has a great opportunity to do some big things. The Panthers give up the third-fewest points to QBs, third-fewest to WRs, and 12th-fewest to TEs. Reed injured his toe and did not return. If Watson cannot go again either, Wicks will be the best passing option, but I wouldn’t feel good about starting him.
Commanders at Rams
Matthew Stafford was serviceable as a streamer in the first week of the fantasy postseason, completing 25/33 for 258 yards and two TDs. Kyren Williams is reminding us how dominant an RB can be with McVay (recall Todd Gurley in 2017) after totaling 152 rushing yards with one rushing score while catching five passes. Cooper Kupp did Kupp-like things with eight receptions for 111 yards and a TD on eight targets. Puka Nacua secured five balls for 50 yards off eight targets.
Scary Terry McLaurin registered six grabs for 141 yards and one touchdown, tying a season-high of 12 targets. McLaurin was WR3 this week. Curtis Samuel caught two TDs, along with five passes for 41 yards. Sam Howell was benched for Jacoby Brissett, who attempted a valiant comeback against the Rams. This QB room will be something to monitor in Superflex and 2QB leagues.
Takeaway:
- The Rams will host the visiting New Orleans Saints on a short turnaround for Thursday Night Football. NOLA allows the second-fewest points to WRs and the sixth-fewest to QBs. This makes Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua tricky matchups. I feel most confident in Kupp as he has three TDs in three consecutive games and has seen nine targets over his last three. Nacua is seeing great volume with targets and touches alongside Kupp, but this matchup does not bode well for two WRs.
- The Commanders will travel to Met Life against the NY Jets. Depending on their QB situation, I would not look to start a Commander against the Jet’s stout defense.
49ers at Cardinals
We all know how special of a player Christian McCaffrey is, but three TDs in the first round of the playoffs is money in the bank. McCaffrey rushed 18 times for 115 yards with a rushing score and caught five passes for 72 yards with two receiving TDs. He was the highest-scoring RB in Week 15 and became the second player to register 20 total touchdowns (13 rushing and 7 receiving) in 2023. Brock Purdy orchestrated the Niners’ passing attack with four TDs with 242 passing yards. Purdy and Dak Prescott are the only QBs with three games of at least four passing TDs. Deebo Samuel caught Purdy’s two other TDs, totaling four catches for 48 passing yards.
Kyler Murray passed for 211 yards with one TD and two INTs while rushing for 49 yards. Trey McBride is Murray’s favorite target after drawing 11 targets, securing 10 for 102 yards. James Connor rushed 14 times for 86 yards and a rushing TD.
Takeaway:
- The 49ers will host the Baltimore Ravens in one of three games on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is rolling, and they’re too good not to start, regardless of the matchup. The Rams and Jaguars were able to pass against Baltimore.
- Arizona travels to Solider Field in Week 16. The Bears’ defense allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards to QBs, which will test Murray’s scrambling ability. Overall, Chicago has an above-average defense and is a neutral matchup for opposing QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. I have the most confidence in McBride who has drawn 36 targets in his last four games with Murray as his QB.
Notables:
- Derek Carr tossed three TDs and 218 passing yards. All TDs were to players no one started. Go figure.
- Alvin Kamara posted 110 all-purpose yards with five catches.
- Darren Waller returned from IR and caught four passes for 40 yards. His next two games are very TE-friendly.
- Devin Singletary rushed for a Week 15-high 121 yards and caught four passes for 49 yards. He can be confidently started the rest of the way. He’s the RB1 for the Texans, who are still in the playoff hunt and should have C.J. Stroud returning next week.
- Noah Brown is the last WR standing for the Texans and made his shareholders very happy as he caught eight passes for 82 yards and one TD.
- Arthur Smith wants to lose his job as he only gave Bijan Robinson seven carries totaling 11 yards in monsoon weather against one of the worst rushing defenses. In poetic justice for the fantasy world, the Falcons lost. Tyler Allgeier rushed 14 times for 45 yards and Cordelle Patterson poached a rushing TD.
- Carolina fed their RB1 in Chuba Hubbard, who rushed 22 times for 84 yards and added two grabs for 16 yards.
- Joe Flacco was slanging it again for Cleveland, completing 28/44 for 374 yards with two passing TDs and three picks.
- Amari Cooper caught four receptions for 109 yards with one TD. David Njoku secured 10 passes for 104 yards and one TD. Cooper and Njoku became the fourth TE and WR duo to each over the century mark in the same game this season since Week 9.
- James Cook was the offense for the Bills. Cook ran 25 times for a Week-15 high 179 yards with a rushing TD and caught two passes for 42 yards and one receiving TD. The Bills RB totaled 221 all-purpose yards, which was more than the entire Cowboys offense (195 yards). Cook will be a league winner under Joe Brady.
- Lamar Jackson rushed for a Week 15 QB-high 97 yards while tossing the ball for 171 yards with one TD and one INT.
- Isaiah Likely drew a team-high six targets, finishing with five catches for 70 yards and one TD.
- Keaton Mitchell’s season may be over, sustaining a knee injury midway in the third quarter. Gus Edwards had a team-high 16 carries for 58 yards and one rushing touchdown.
- Trevor Lawrence threw for 264 yards, including a career-high 65-yard touchdown to Jamal Agnew. Lawrence rushed for 41 yards, lost two fumbles, and entered concussion protocol after the game. The Jags are set to face Tampa Bay, which allows the sixth-most points to QBs.
🚨 Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage Update 🚨
- San Francisco leads the NFL with 69%. Rounding out the top 10 is Miami (68%), Buffalo (67%), L.A. Chargers (65%), Arizona (64%), Detroit (63%), Washington (61%), Cincinnati (61%), Baltimore (61%), and LA Rams (60%).
- The bottom five teams in Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages are the NY Jets (34%), Tennessee (44%), NY Giants (44%), Carolina (45%), and Pittsburgh (47%).
Thanks for your time checking out my Week 15 takeaways. While you are here, check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jefferson__21. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy.
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