Following a 3/5 Week 1 (and missing Week 2, my bad), we look to Week 3 to continue finding the best value on player props. This week, there are a ton of bets I love, so let’s get it and make some money.
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Jordan Addison over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jordan Addison is coming into his own quickly in Minnesota. He’s been a lot more of a deep threat than most expected coming out of college, but he’s the perfect complement to Justin Jefferson in this offense. The Chargers have given up the third most yards to receivers through the first two weeks of the season, and chances are that doesn’t change against the Vikings.
Los Angeles will have no choice but to focus on Jefferson, poising Addison for a big game. The rookie has covered this line in both games he’s played, and as he showed in Week 2, it could only take one throw. This game could be a shootout, which makes this line that much prettier. I think Addison continues to produce and covers his line on Sunday.
C.J. Stroud over 235.5 passing yards (-115)
C.J. Stroud led the NFL in passing yards in Week 2, and this is another game where he will most likely need to throw a ton of times. It’s clear that the rookie already has solid connections with his receivers in Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Tank Dell. When the Texans head to Jacksonville, they’re going to need to be able to throw the ball, and after last week, they should, and most likely will, let Stroud air it out. He’s covered this line in both games played. He should be able to hit it again this week.
Patrick Mahomes over 16.5 rushing yards (-120)
Patrick Mahomes is a good runner. Sportsbooks always set his line way too low. These things together lead me to take the over on his rushing yards this week against the Bears. Chicago’s pass rush is nowhere near threatening, but the Chiefs design runs for Mahomes, and he always breaks off a few big ones in a game. Kansas City’s offensive line is subpar, so no matter who they’re facing, defensive players will be in the backfield next to Mahomes for a good portion of the game. Even if it takes just one or two runs, Mahomes should cover this line, so we’re playing it.
Zay Flowers over 48.5 receiving yards (-120)
In the two brief weeks that Zay Flowers has been an NFL player, he’s shown that he has the talent to be a star. Flowers may prove to be the best receiver to come out of this draft class. Lamar Jackson loves targeting him, and John Harbaugh loves to use him in unique ways. Flowers is the go-to receiver on this offense, and he opens up the offense for not only himself but Mark Andrews as well. Between his targets and usage, this is, more than likely, one of the lowest receiving lines you will get for him. The Colts’ secondary is nothing special, so take advantage of this line while you can. Take Zay Flowers’ over receiving yards in Week 3.
Calvin Ridley over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
Calvin Ridley disappointed in Week 2 against the Chiefs, but that’s not how the rest of the season goes for Agent Zero. When the Texans travel to Jacksonville, they’ll be missing their 2022 first-round stud, Derek Stingley Jr. Stingley’s absence is going to be felt across Houston’s defense, especially when they’re going up against a guy like Ridley. He’s seen 19 targets over his two games played, and the Jaguars will force the ball into his hands and target that Texans’ secondary all game. I trust Ridley to simply have the ball in his hands enough to hit the over on his receiving prop this week.
