NFL Week 5 Best Bets
I’ll take the fall for last week. 2-for-5 is never an ideal week, but they happen. It isn’t about how you start but how you finish.
Going forward, I’ll be dishing out all the best bets for every week of the NFL season, not only player props. This week, we get a brand new slate of games, which means a brand new pool of lines to take advantage of. Here are the five best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.
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Dolphins -11.5 (-110)
Let’s get it straight. The New York Giants are not a good football team in 2023. After all the hype surrounding the Giants following their playoff run last season, the only thing that stayed the same from their 2022 season was their terrible offensive line. Actually, somehow, it’s worse than before. Everything else that New York had going for them has fallen apart in the first four weeks of the season. Their newly paid $40 million QB hasn’t done anything to prove he was worth that extension, but once again, the guys protecting and surrounding Daniel Jones have done him no favors.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, were brought down to Earth against Buffalo, but it’s not too concerning for Miami. The Dolphins offense is electric and possibly the best in the NFL. The Giants allow the third most points per game, just above Chicago and Denver, and the Dolphins score the most points per game. I usually don’t love taking big spreads like this one, but in Miami, the Dolphins should simply rout the Giants.
Texans ML (+110)
One of the coolest surprises to start this season has been the #2 overall pick, C.J. Stroud, being awesome. Stroud has the fourth most passing yards in the league, and looks like he might be the best QB in his draft class. Houston has put their trust in him to throw the ball, and he’s proven he can do it. The Texans’ defense is also sneaky good. They’re quick, young, and very well-coached. For the Falcons, they don’t have much to be excited about. Desmond Ridder doesn’t look to be “the guy,” and their offense is in shambles.
The Texans are missing a lot of their offensive line but still have a better unit than Atlanta, who allow the third most sacks in the league. One of the Falcons’ two real offensive pass catchers is pretty much not in the game script. Atlanta is a very bland team with an uncreative offense, so I’ll take the young and exciting offense to put another one in the win column this week. Take the Texans to win the game.
Packers ML (-115)
On Thursday Night Football in Week Four, the Packers were embarrassed by their division rival. Jordan Love did not look anywhere near what he’s looked like in his other starts. However, I’m expecting a bounce-back game from Green Bay altogether. The Raiders kept it close with the Chargers strictly because of poor coaching decisions made by Los Angeles. I’m a fan of rookie QB Aidan O’Connell, and eventually, he may be a viable starter, but for now, he’s still developing.
Whether it’s O’Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo under center, the Raiders offense is uninspiring, as is their defense. Expect a well-rested Packers team to win on the road against the Raiders in Week Five.
Colts +2.5 (-110)
The Colts almost pulled off an incredible comeback win against the Rams last week but couldn’t close it out in overtime. The Tennessee Titans crushed a struggling Bengals team and held Joe Burrow and that offense to just three points. Still, I’m not a believer in the Titans. Divisional games are different monsters, and home field is more important than it normally is. Indianapolis should be getting Jonathan Taylor back for this game, and it’s going to be really fun to see what he and Anthony Richardson can do together in this offense.
If Colts’ coach Shane Steichen utilizes the RPO like he did in Philly, this is going to create a very dangerous offense for defenses to play against. The Colts being at home gives them the edge, so I’ll take the Colts to cover and even win the game. Take the Colts spread, and sprinkle the ML (+116).
Jets ML (+112)
Zach Wilson entered Monday Night Football with a chip on his shoulder. Everyone was saying he was terrible, couldn’t get the job done, and should be replaced as soon as possible. That same QB entered MetLife Stadium and outplayed the best QB in the world. If it wasn’t for a few questionable calls, the outcome of that game could and probably would have been a win. New York’s offense was grooving, partly due to Wilson but also partly because of a real look at contemporary play calling from OC Nathaniel Hackett. If he keeps this up, especially with the snap limit being removed for Breece Hall, the Jets could really start to score points.
Sean Payton talked a lot of trash about the Jets and Nathaniel Hackett when he joined the Broncos, and there’s no doubt both teams have had this game circled on the schedule. The Broncos are awful, and their defense is bottom of the league in pretty much every statistic. The Jets are starting to heat up, and the Broncos remain ice cold. I like the Jets to win this game in Denver as (somehow) underdogs.
