Another 3-for-5 record in Week 5 is acceptable, but we need to be better. We’re looking for value on plays, so I’m not going to give out five heavy favorites (as easy as that would make my life). There’s a lot of value to be had in Week 6, so here are my six best bets for this week of the NFL season.
Chicago Bears +2.5 (-105) & over 44.5 (-110)
The Bears picked up their first win since October 2022 last week against Washington in dominant fashion. Chicago let Justin Fields show off his arm, and the third-year QB showed up and showed out. This week, the Bears get a home game against the Vikings, and they match up really well. Minnesota allows the fourth-most yards to receivers, and with D.J. Moore finding his groove, it doesn’t bode well for the Minnesota secondary.
If the Bears can create pressure on Kirk Cousins, they will find themselves in another game similar to the one last week against the Commanders. It could be a tough day for Cousins, as he’ll be missing his go-to guy in Justin Jefferson. Both these teams have poor defenses, and strangely enough, I think this game could end up being a shootout. The matchup is too sweet not to bet on, so take the Bears to cover the spread and sprinkle the moneyline, along with taking the over in the game.
Texans/Saints under 42.5 (-110)
The Texans lost a tough one to the Falcons last week, but they covered the spread on the road. C.J. Stroud has remained the most impressive QB in his draft class thus far, and now he gets a real challenge against a very talented Saints defense. Even though New Orleans blew New England out of the water, I still don’t see them as a truly dynamic offense. I like the under in this game. The Saints’ offense has struggled to put points on the board in most of their games this year, and the Texans’ defense is sneaky good and incredibly quick. The Saints allow the fourth-most sacks in the league, so I see this one being low-scoring. Take the under.
Commanders/Falcons under 42.5 & Brian Robinson Jr. over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Commanders go on the road to Atlanta to play the Falcons, and both these offenses have found themselves having trouble scoring points. The only reason Washington put up the amount of points they did last week was because it was garbage time, and the Bears were playing off the ball. Atlanta’s defense has been solid this season, but their offense has been disappointing. This game will be won on the ground, so get ready to meet the Robinsons.
Both Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. will be featured heavily, but with the Falcons allowing the tenth-most rushing yards in the league, I lean toward the over on Brian Robinson’s yards. He only got six carries last week, but I’m not worried since they were playing behind all game. I can’t see that happening this week, so I like the over on Brian Robinson’s yards and the total under in the game.
Christian Kirk over 63.5 receiving yards (-114)
I don’t know if anybody saw Christian Kirk being the WR1 in Jacksonville through five weeks of the season. Kirk leads the team in receiving yards and targets, and now he goes against an unimpressive Colts secondary. Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to receivers, so this is a prime matchup for Kirk. This line is high, but I definitely see Christian Kirk seeing enough targets to hit the over.
