First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…

Pick Standard ADP Diff PPR ADP Diff PPR (half point) ADP Diff
1 Le’Veon Bell 2.8 -1.8 Le’Veon Bell 1 0 Le’Veon Bell 1 0
2 Adrian Peterson 1.7 0.3 Antonio Brown 3.8 -1.8 Antonio Brown 3.8 -1.8
3 Eddie Lacy 3 0 Rob Gronkowski 10 -7 Rob Gronkowski 10 -7
4 Marshawn Lynch 4.8 -0.8 Demaryius Thomas 10.5 -6.5 Demaryius Thomas 10.5 -6.5
5 Rob Gronkowski 12.7 -7.7 Adrian Peterson 3 2 Adrian Peterson 3 2
6 Demaryius Thomas 11.7 -5.7 Odell Beckham 9.5 -3.5 Odell Beckham 9.5 -3.5
7 Antonio Brown 6.5 0.5 Julio Jones 8.5 -1.5 Dez Bryant 8 -1
8 Jamaal Charles 2.7 5.3 Matt Forte 12.8 -4.8 Julio Jones 8.5 -0.5
9 Dez Bryant 10 -1 Dez Bryant 8 1 Jamaal Charles 3.5 5.5
10 Matt Forte 10 0 Jamaal Charles 3.5 6.5 Eddie Lacy 4.3 5.7
11 Odell Beckham 13.7 -2.7 Eddie Lacy 4.3 6.7 Marshawn Lynch 8.8 2.2
12 Julio Jones 15.8 -3.8 Marshawn Lynch 8.8 3.2 Matt Forte 12.8 -0.8
13 Andrew Luck 11.7 1.3 C.J. Anderson 12 1 C.J. Anderson 12 1
14 C.J. Anderson 12.5 1.5 Calvin Johnson 14.5 -0.5 Calvin Johnson 14.5 -0.5
15 Calvin Johnson 16.2 -1.2 Andrew Luck 15.3 -0.3 Andrew Luck 15.3 -0.3
16 Aaron Rodgers 11.2 4.8 Justin Forsett 22.8 -6.8 Aaron Rodgers 20.8 -4.8
17 Jeremy Hill 14.5 2.5 Aaron Rodgers 20.8 -3.8 DeMarco Murray 17 0
18 DeMarco Murray 12.7 5.3 Randall Cobb 20.5 -2.5 Jeremy Hill 16.8 1.2
19 Randall Cobb 21.8 -2.8 DeMarco Murray 17 2 Randall Cobb 20.5 -1.5
20 LeSean McCoy 16.7 3.3 A.J. Green 18 2 LeSean McCoy 20 0
21 A.J. Green 20.8 0.2 LeSean McCoy 20 1 A.J. Green 18 3
22 Mike Evans 28.2 -6.2 Jeremy Hill 16.8 5.2 Justin Forsett 22.8 -0.8
23 Mark Ingram 30.5 -7.5 Alshon Jeffery 23.3 -0.3 Alshon Jeffery 23.3 -0.3
24 Alshon Jeffery 24.8 -0.8 T.Y. Hilton 24.8 -0.8 Mike Evans 25 -1
25 T.Y. Hilton 24.7 0.3 Greg Olsen 58.3 -33.3 T.Y. Hilton 24.8 0.2
26 Justin Forsett 26 0 Mike Evans 25 1 Mark Ingram 33.8 -7.8
27 Russell Wilson 33 -6 Jimmy Graham 30.3 -3.3 Jimmy Graham 30.3 -3.3
28 Alfred Morris 32.8 -4.8 DeAndre Hopkins 31 -3 Russell Wilson 56.8 -28.8
29 Jimmy Graham 27.5 1.5 Mark Ingram 33.8 -4.8 Greg Olsen 58.3 -29.3
30 DeAndre Hopkins 36.5 -6.5 Emmanuel Sanders 31.5 -1.5 DeAndre Hopkins 31 -1
31 Emmanuel Sanders 32 -1 Russell Wilson 56.8 -25.8 Emmanuel Sanders 31.5 -0.5
32 Lamar Miller 31.3 0.7 Brandin Cooks 29.8 2.2 Frank Gore 30.3 1.7
33 Frank Gore 32.3 0.7 Frank Gore 30.3 2.7 Lamar Miller 29 4
34 Peyton Manning 29.5 4.5 Lamar Miller 29 5 Alfred Morris 37.3 -3.3
35 Greg Olsen 50.3 -15.3 Martellus Bennett 68.5 -33.5 Brandin Cooks 29.8 5.2
36 Melvin Gordon 34.3 1.7 Travis Kelce 51 -15 Peyton Manning 52.3 -16.3
37 Joseph Randle 55.5 -18.5 C.J. Spiller 52.3 -15.3 Melvin Gordon 32 5
38 Carlos Hyde 40 -2 Peyton Manning 52.3 -14.3 Travis Kelce 51 -13
39 Brandin Cooks 35.3 3.7 Alfred Morris 37.3 1.7 Jordan Matthews 34.5 4.5
40 Jordan Matthews 39.2 0.8 Melvin Gordon 32 8 Martellus Bennett 68.5 -28.5
41 Ben Roethlisberger 46.5 -5.5 Jordan Matthews 34.5 6.5 Joseph Randle 44.5 -3.5
42 Travis Kelce 52.3 -10.3 Ben Roethlisberger 59.5 -17.5 Carlos Hyde 42.3 -0.3
43 Drew Brees 39 4 Andre Ellington 41.5 1.5 Ben Roethlisberger 59.5 -16.5
44 Martellus Bennett 65.7 -21.7 Keenan Allen 48.3 -4.3 Drew Brees 59.3 -15.3
45 Latavius Murray 41.5 3.5 Joseph Randle 44.5 0.5 T.J. Yeldon 51.3 -6.3
46 T.J. Yeldon 66.2 -20.2 Drew Brees 59.3 -13.3 Latavius Murray 38.3 7.7
47 Matt Ryan 56.3 -9.3 Carlos Hyde 42.3 4.7 Keenan Allen 48.3 -1.3
48 Todd Gurley 55.7 -7.7 T.J. Yeldon 51.3 -3.3 Golden Tate 48.3 -0.3
49 DeSean Jackson 53.2 -4.2 Latavius Murray 38.3 10.7 Matt Ryan 75.5 -26.5
50 Brandon Marshall 62.8 -12.8 Golden Tate 48.3 1.7 Todd Gurley 46 4
51 Golden Tate 54.8 -3.8 Julian Edelman 45.3 5.7 Andre Ellington 41.5 9.5
52 Jonathan Stewart 51 1 Todd Gurley 46 6 Brandon Marshall 58 -6
53 Keenan Allen 56.5 -3.5 Matt Ryan 75.5 -22.5 Zach Ertz 105 -52
54 LeGarrette Blount 73.3 -19.3 Jason Witten 103 -49 Jason Witten 103 -49
55 Zach Ertz 112.7 -57.7 Brandon Marshall 58 -3 C.J. Spiller 52.3 2.7
56 Cam Newton 81.2 -25.2 Zach Ertz 105 -49 Jonathan Stewart 48.3 7.7
57 Tony Romo 60 -3 Ameer Abdullah 47 10 Julian Edelman 45.3 11.7
58 Jason Witten 81.5 -23.5 Cam Newton 96.8 -38.8 Cam Newton 96.8 -38.8
59 Sammy Watkins 53.2 5.8 Tony Romo 86.8 -27.8 DeSean Jackson 62.3 -3.3
60 Andre Ellington 48.3 11.7 Jonathan Stewart 48.3 11.7 Tony Romo 86.8 -26.8
61 Dwayne Allen 119 -58 Giovani Bernard 59.3 1.7 Ameer Abdullah 47 14
62 Isaiah Crowell 94.5 -32.5 Andre Johnson 45.5 16.5 Sammy Watkins 52.5 9.5
63 Torrey Smith 102 -39 DeSean Jackson 62.3 0.7 Andre Johnson 45.5 17.5
64 Amari Cooper 50.2 13.8 Delanie Walker 116.5 -52.5 LeGarrette Blount 77.3 -13.3
65 Chris Ivory 80.5 -15.5 Amari Cooper 46 19 Delanie Walker 116.5 -51.5
66 Julius Thomas 76.3 -10.3 Sammy Watkins 52.5 13.5 Amari Cooper 46 20
67 Delanie Walker 129 -62 Ryan Tannehill 91.8 -24.8 Julius Thomas 86.8 -19.8
68 Julian Edelman 47.3 20.7 Julius Thomas 86.8 -18.8 Ryan Tannehill 91.8 -23.8
69 Andre Johnson 44.2 24.8 Roddy White 79.8 -10.8 Giovani Bernard 59.3 9.7
70 Vincent Jackson 74.8 -4.8 Eli Manning 94.5 -24.5 Dwayne Allen 145.8 -75.8
71 Jordan Cameron 93.8 -22.8 Philip Rivers 111.5 -40.5 Vincent Jackson 73 -2
72 Brandon LaFell 107.3 -35.3 LeGarrette Blount 77.3 -5.3 Chris Ivory 76.5 -4.5
73 Ryan Tannehill 96 -23 Allen Robinson 63.8 9.2 Isaiah Crowell 84.5 -11.5
74 Mike Wallace 83.5 -9.5 Brandon LaFell 93 -19 Brandon LaFell 93 -19
75 Martavis Bryant 66.8 8.2 Jordan Cameron 92.8 -17.8 Jordan Cameron 92.8 -17.8
76 Nelson Agholor 91.7 -15.7 Vincent Jackson 73 3 Eli Manning 94.5 -18.5
77 Ameer Abdullah 75.2 1.8 Rashad Jennings 71.8 5.2 Roddy White 79.8 -2.8
78 Eli Manning 88.2 -10.2 Chris Ivory 76.5 1.5 Philip Rivers 111.5 -33.5
79 Jeremy Maclin 65.8 13.2 Jeremy Maclin 58.3 20.7 Allen Robinson 63.8 15.2
80 Roddy White 86.8 -6.8 Anquan Boldin 102 -22 Torrey Smith 105 -25
81 Philip Rivers 99.3 -18.3 Dwayne Allen 145.8 -64.8 Jeremy Maclin 58.3 22.7
82 Allen Robinson 91.3 -9.3 Isaiah Crowell 84.5 -2.5 Rashad Jennings 71.8 10.2
83 Anquan Boldin 120.2 -37.2 Matthew Stafford 89.3 -6.3 Anquan Boldin 102 -19
84 Rashad Jennings 69.2 14.8 Joique Bell 70.5 13.5 Nelson Agholor 72.3 11.7
85 Marques Colston 122.3 -37.3 Heath Miller 198 -113 Mike Wallace 79.5 5.5
86 Antonio Gates 130.8 -44.8 Jarvis Landry 53.3 32.7 Matthew Stafford 89.3 -3.3
87 C.J. Spiller 79.2 7.8 Nelson Agholor 72.3 14.7 Heath Miller 198 -111
88 Eric Decker 116.3 -28.3 Torrey Smith 105 -17 Joique Bell 70.5 17.5
89 Matthew Stafford 78.3 10.7 Mike Wallace 79.5 9.5 Eric Decker 95.8 -6.8
90 Coby Fleener 136 -46 Eric Decker 95.8 -5.8 Jarvis Landry 53.3 36.7
91 Giovani Bernard 76.3 14.7 Colin Kaepernick 140 -49 Martavis Bryant 57.5 33.5
92 Heath Miller 160 -68 Shane Vereen 76 16 Antonio Gates 147 -55
93 Charles Johnson 104.5 -11.5 Charles Clay 190 -97 Charles Clay 190 -97
94 Charles Clay 179 -85 Larry Fitzgerald 92 2 Marques Colston 110.5 -16.5
95 Joique Bell 70.8 24.2 Antonio Gates 147 -52 Colin Kaepernick 140 -45
96 Tyler Eifert 163 -67 Devonta Freeman 92.3 3.7 Larry Fitzgerald 92 4

The “ADP” column is the the player’s current average draft position based on thousands of completed drafts. The “Diff” column represents the difference between the player’s ADP and my ranking for that player. A negative value means that I have that player ranked higher than his ADP. This data is useful in determining if it is time to select a player. For example, in standard leagues I have Martellus Bennett ranked at 44, but his ADP is 66. Based on my rankings he is a 4th round pick. However since he is going in the 6th round, I’d wait until the 5th round for Bennett and make a nice value pick. And if I can get him in the 6th, even better!

Le’Veon Bell is the to unanimous top pick in all formats. However, in standard format I’d have no issue with Adrian Peterson as the first pick. You know he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove. Bell is suspended, and while it’s only for two games, it might be more productive to have Peterson for a full season than Bell for two games less. I can even make a solid argument for Eddie Lacy. Will Rodgers rely on him a bit more now with Jordy Nelson out of the picture?

Gronkowski in the top 5? Yes sir. He is that far ahead of the rest of the tight end field that his value at his position propels him an early-mid first round pick in my eyes. This is the same principle I argued on the baseball side of things for taking Buster Posey in the second (or third) round. And you know what, he currently has about 100 points more than the next catcher. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Here are some players that I think are being drafted too early:

Standard Format:
Julian Edelman, ADP: 47, Rank: 68
Andre Johnson, ADP: 44, Rank: 69
Joique Bell, ADP: 71, Rank: 95

PPR Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 79
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 86

PPR Half-Point Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 81
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 90
Martavis Bryant, ADP: 57, Rank: 91
Andre Johnson, ADP: 45, Rank: 63

And now some players that have great draft value:

Standard Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 50, Rank: 35
Joseph Randle, ADP: 55, Rank: 37
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 66, Rank: 44
T.J. Yeldon, ADP: 66, Rank: 46
Zach Ertz, ADP: 112, Rank: 55
Cam Newton, ADP: 81, Rank: 56
Isaiah Crowell, ADP: 95, Rank: 62
Brandon LaFell, ADP: 107, Rank: 72
Anquan Boldin, ADP: 120, Rank: 83

PPR Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 25
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 31
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 35
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 64
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 67
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 71
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 81
Charles Clay, ADP: 190, Rank: 93

PPR Half-Point Format:
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 28
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 29
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 40
Matt Ryan, ADP: 76, Rank: 49
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Tony Romo, ADP: 87, Rank: 60
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 66
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 68
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 70
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 78

Please note that I am using 1-point PPR ADP for the half-point PPR formats as well. These numbers are likely very slightly skewed, but I do not expect them to be that far off.

Here are all 543 picks (Excel Spreadsheet).

Good luck, and don’t snooze on Greg Olsen!

 

 

  1. Blounts & fortes says:
    (link)

    Who do you like better between Mathews and sproles out of the PHI backfield as a bench/flex spot in a PPR league? I keep reading that Kelly really likes sproles as a slot guy. I’ll start bell and spiller and have devonta freeman on the bench as well…or would u pick up Mathews by dropping freeman?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Blounts & fortes: My projections for PPR have Mathews at 114 points and Sproles at 113. Mathews will rush for more yards and Sproles will have more receiving yards. It’s really a coin flip…

  2. BillieBeeen says:
    (link)

    Interesting spreadsheet. Thanks. If you had a league using 2Qb’s 2RB’s 4Receivers Plus 1 Flex in a PPR, how would that effect the positions in your rankings, in your best estimate? Would TE’s and RB’s move down slightly? would QB’s move up most or would Receivers since I need 4?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @BillieBeeen: Thanks. I suspect QBs and WRs would move up because the value of the replacement and average player would be lower, thus increasing the value of players at that position…

      • twee lil pweegs says:
        (link)

        @malamoney:
        same question 16 team league half ppr 1 flex… how would u adjust the ranking, bump qb’s&T.E. ?

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @twee lil pweegs: I’d have to recalculate VORP and VOAP given a different player size pool at those positions…

  3. twee lil pweegs says:
    (link)

    can u explain more about your voap\vorp and how it compares with VBR ?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @twee lil pweegs: VBR is the same as my VORP, which tries to find a player’s value above the replacement player as his position. VOAP tries to find the player’s value above the average player at his position. It is a bit of an experiment, but I thought there was value in this value because we don’t really strive to draft the player just above the replacement player. “On average” you want to be better than the average player.

      And then what I did was average each player’s VORP and VOAP to get his Value Above…

      • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: at a certain pt of the draft, likely where the average player is drafted VOAP has to give way to VORP though, yes?

  4. artzlab says:
    (link)

    any downgrade on randle with recent news of rbbc? recent as in I saw it the morning after i took him in the 4th. ingram, spiller, crowell, mason, helu are my other rbs in a standard 12 team (went gronk, odell at the 9th pick). should i be worried already?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @artzlab: Nah. I wouldn’t bet my season on him, but he should be a decent RB2.

  5. Johnny Ticklemonster says:
    (link)

    Had a 12-team snake draft (.5 ppr) last night. Here’s my team, what do you think? Any areas of concern you’d suggest, or potential trade bait?

    QB
    Tannehill

    RB
    Hill
    Gore
    Spiller
    DMC
    Knile Davis

    WR
    Dez
    Matthews
    Andre Johnson
    Robinson
    Agholor
    Terrence Williams

    TE
    Eifert

    Defenses
    Packers and Bengals

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Johnny Ticklemonster: Who was your first pick and what pick number did you have? I don’t like Eifert. You need Hill and Gore to man up this season otherwise you are going to be in trouble at RB. I’m not high on Andre Johnson, but am on Dez and Matthews. What pick did you take Johnson with? I think Tannehill is a good value pick…

      • Johnny Ticklemonster says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: I had pick 12 of 12, I went Dez/Hill. I could have gone Dez/Megatron (or Gronk) but figured I’d be super shallow at RB by the time it snaked back to me.

        • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
          (link)

          @Johnny Ticklemonster: it would’ve been, you really wouldn’t have liked your RB’s had you not grabbed Hill.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Johnny Ticklemonster: Yeah, you had to take Hill for sure. I hate the 12th pick…

  6. JB2 says:
    (link)

    I’m weak at WR (Cobb, Robinson, Wheaton, Bryant, Agholor) , but still projected to win my league.

    I have the potential to flip Greg Olsen and Rothlisberger for Emmanuel Sanders and AJ Green, but that would leave me rocking Teddy Bridgewater and Heath Miller for Week1. Would you pull the trigger, or just leave it be? I already have Forte/CJ Anderson/Peterson/Freeman at RB, and could probably win on that strength + Olsen/Roth. But I don’t want to take chances.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @JB2: Projected to win your league tools are mostly useless.

      Is this a PPR league? Why would you only need to use Teddy and Miller in week 1?

  7. JoeCool says:
    (link)

    So mala,

    I know there are no $ values listed here, but it’s safe to say you’d pay more for Bell than say Dez even though Dez is slated to earn more points in a PPR or .5 PPR according to your spreadsheet projections because of positional scarcity correct?

    Thanks

    • JoeCool says:
      (link)

      @JoeCool:

      in fact, if there were $ values listed, they should appear in exact descending order correct? since you’re comparing across positions.

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
        (link)

        @JoeCool: Yes, dollar values would be in descending order from top down in the lists…

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @JoeCool: This post has nothing to do with dollar values (auctions). This is snake draft specific…

  8. Frank White says:
    (link)

    What’s up My Man Malamoney.. How’s my team in a 12 team PPR 3 WR league?
    Rivers
    Cobb
    Brandon Cooks
    Allen Robinson
    Marshawn
    Alfred Morris
    Bennett
    Wallace
    Alfred Blue
    Colston
    Reggie Bush
    Jonas Gray
    Turbin
    Winston
    I know i should probly get rid of Turbin. I don’t think i’ll get him but do you think i should drop him for Matt Jones?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Frank White: I’d definitely drop Turbin for Jones…

  9. fortheworld says:
    (link)

    what do you think of trading

    brandon marshall/ alshon jeffery/ alfred morris for beast mode and calvin johnson… in a vacuum.

    other wr’s would be dez/garcon/ martavis bryant (hopefully)
    other rbs’ forsett/gore

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @fortheworld: I think I’d make that trade. Is it PPR?

  10. fortheworld says:
    (link)

    #1: what do you think of trading

    brandon marshall/ alshon jeffery/ alfred morris for beast mode and calvin johnson in a vacuum.

    other wrs would be dez/garcon/ martavis bryant (hopefully)
    other rbs forsett/gore

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @fortheworld: See above…

  11. Nick says:
    (link)

    Hey Malamoney, I have the 2nd overall pick in a 10team standard scoring league…I’m thinking go AP as my first choice & Lynch as second choice if AP is gone. My feelings about Bell is that missing the first 2 weeks is a deal breaker. Otherwise I would probably pick him. What do you think? Should I have this much confidence in AP who hasnt played in a while (can work against him, or for him since he is fresh)? Should I look to pick Bell instead of Lynch if AP is gone?

    thanks! I’m struggling with this #2 pick!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Nick: What up Nick. I’m likely going Peterson, then Charles, then Lacy, then Lynch. But that’s just me…

  12. Big James A'int says:
    (link)

    Keeper league: Have Gates in the 15th, CJ in the 10th, Ellington in the 8th, Lamar in the 7th.
    Lost my 2nd/4th rd picks to trades last year. .5 ppr/6 pts rushing/receiving TD. 6th pick in a 10 teamer gives me picks 6, 26, 46 through the first 5 rds.

    Knowing this league, both Gronk and Brown should both be available. Thoughts? Thanks all.

    • Big James A'int says:
      (link)

      @Big James A’int: For clarification, looking for advice for the 6th pick

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
        (link)

        @Big James A’int: In PPR I’m taking Brown over Gronk, but in standard my rankings have Gronk over Brown. I’m not sure I could actually pull the trigger on taking Gronk over Brown. And here’s why. I think you can good value a few rounds later by taking one of Olsen, Kelce, Bennett and a few others. Taking one of them later allows you to grab the top WR or RB while they are still available….

Comments are closed.