Playing dynasty fantasy football can be difficult. The Managers are typically better than your average league. You’re dealing with a much deeper pool of players. The waiver wire offers few life preservers. Dynasty Managers must learn to make timely trades and know when to seize the moment. The moment to seize a future star Quarterback is upon you. Go make an offer for Trevor Lawrence.
I love to build a dynasty team around a Quarterback. In dynasty, you are typically acquiring that player for the length of their career. A Quarterback will likely have a much longer football career than a Runningback or Wide Receiver, so it only makes sense to invest in a good QB. Why the urgency? Because Trevor Lawrence is about to turn his season around.
It’s been a difficult start for Lawrence and the Jags, but the numbers indicate a correction coming for Trevor that will likely make him a top 15 Quarterback for the rest of the season. When looking through his season statistics, two ugly numbers jump off the page: Interceptions – 7, and Completion percentage – 54%. I contend that those hideous numbers are merely the mouth of this good horse.
Trevor has only taken five sacks this season, which is not good considering his 118 pass attempts, many of his pass attempts have come in obvious passing situations. These low sack numbers likely affect his gaudy INT number. This is a common problem for young playmakers. They need to learn to give up on some plays and live to fight another day. This is the NFL. The guys on the other team drive nice cars too. So, is he learning his lesson? It appears he is:
Week 1- Sacks 1, Yards 13
Week 2 – Sacks 1, Yards 4
Week 3 – Sacks 3, Yards 17
I have included the sack yardage to show that he typically doesn’t take huge sacks well behind the line of scrimmage. Trevor can run around a bit and keep his team in decent down and distance, even during broken plays. And that is what he needs to do a lot more. Lawrence needs to run the ball more often, something he has begun to do. Carries have increased week to week:
Week 1 – Carries 1, Yards -2
Week 2 – Carries 2, Yards 21
Week 3 – Carries 6, Yards 27
Optimal carries for Lawrence will likely fall into the 5-10 per game range. That should net him 20-60 rushing yards per game. He could have another 500 yards rushing in him this season. If Lawrence takes a few more sacks and scrambles more per game, those interceptions should tick down.
Now onto that ugly completion percentage number. 54% will not get it done in the NFL. He needs to get that number much closer to 65%. That would put him in the Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Aaron Rodgers neighborhood in Completion Percentageville. A quick look into his NexGen Stats on NFL.com indicates he might want to speak to a realtor in that area. They rate his xCOMP% (expected completion percentage) 62%, which will get it done in the NFL. Lawrence has thrown for an average of about 220 yards per game. I think that total can tick up to 250 yards per game when his completion percentage corrects itself, which it likely will. That would put him at 3,500 passing yards left in that arm for the rest of the season.
Would you take a Quarterback who is going to give you 3,500 yards passing and 500 yards rushing with the 14 remaining games of the season? I would and so would his fantasy manager. If you want Trevor Lawrence, and all that he could potentially become, you will need to trade for him before his interception issues and completion percentage are corrected, and the time is nigh.
One more thought:
Peyton Barber had a great game. I’ll admit that I scoffed when I first read the Raiders had signed Barber a couple of weeks ago. Gruden was effusive with his praise of Barber and I shook my head. As it turns out, John Gruden may know a little bit about football. Gruden used Barber’s brute force to pound on that Miami front seven for all four quarters on Sunday. Peyton Barber was stopped twice on 3rd and then 4th and short in the first quarter of the game, but Gruden just kept pounding the rock. By the 4th quarter and into overtime, Barber was cutting up that exhausted Dolphin’s D. He did a good job in pass protection. His advanced stats look great: Little time spent behind the line of scrimmage (2.47-second average). 40 yards rushing over the expected outcome. His run efficiency is good at 3.46. His best number is the rushing yards against 8 or more defenders in the box 58.3. That is his job. He runs the ball even when the other team knows he is gonna run the ball. He’s earning the trust of his coach and teammates. If Peyton is available, cordially invite him to your place. Josh Jacobs will return at some point, but don’t be surprised if Barber plays a role in this offense even with a healthy Jacobs around.
