I am enjoying writing up rankings “the Grey way”. I think that it’s helpful to add a little blurb with the player and to put them in tiers. When I’m looking at fantasy baseball information in the early spring, this is the specific format that I like reading for my rankings. I assume that since you are here, you are already a Grey/Razzball fan, so I hope that you feel at home with this format.
Please, blog, may I have some more?A lot has happened since B_Don and Donkey Teeth were last on the air talking Rookie Wide Receivers Part 1. Zeke Elliot was allegedly a victim of extortion, Melvin Gordon is threatening to hold out, and Richie Incognito was suspended for trying to cut his dead father’s head off. Just another normal week in the NFL! […]
Please, blog, may I have some more?It is finally time to start rolling out my positional rankings over the next couple of weeks. We really started to kick things up at the beginning of June but nobody is really ready for drafts in June. June is foreplay. June for fantasy football is catching up with your favorite writers and you sit there and read as they babble on about players that they thought about during the Spring. You’re probably thinking, “that’s great and all but what NUMBER is this guy on your rankings sheet?” Oh so you don’t care about Pittsburgh’s offense, you just want to know when to draft J2S2.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Completed Previews: AFC North – NFC North – NFC East Part I – NFC East Part II – AFC East Part I – AFC East Part I
2019 projections referenced below are based on razzball.com 2019 projections managed and updated by our very own @RudyGamble . ADP, and strength of schedule referenced below are based on fantasypros.com consensus data.
Please, blog, may I have some more?There are many advanced stats and metrics in which to judge running backs by. But which are the top metrics to help us separate the best from the rest? Or to uncover a diamond in the rough? Well, thanks to the great work over at Football Outsiders, we have three innovative stats to judge RB’s by: DVOA, DYAR and Success Rate.
DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, represents a player’s value per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the performance. DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, gives us the value of the performance on plays where the back caught/carried the ball compared to the average replacement level. And finally, Success Rate represents the player’s consistency, measured by successful running plays.
Using data from 2018, let’s take a look at some of the leaders in the NFL in rushing DVOA, DYAR and Success Rate, to help us isolate the backs we should be targeting in drafts.
Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s that time of month to check in on when players are being drafted. I gave out some names in June that I thought were some discount buys, but I never got around to talking about the players that were going a little too early for my tastes. Look, everyone has SOME value if their price is cheap enough. If Todd Gurley is sitting there in the 4th round because of concerns about his knee arthritis, somebody is getting a pretty damn good running back after already making three picks.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Much noise has been made in fantasy circles about the Arizona Cardinals and the potential for a new-look, explosive offense in 2019. Some of the reasons to be excited for what Kliff Kingsbury will bring to the NFL were discussed in part 1 . Despite a lackluster 2018, David Johnson has seen his ADP remain at RB5/6 and Kyler Murray is being taken as a low end QB1 in the 8th round of redraft. A rookie QB has not been drafted that high since Robert Griffin III in 2011. But what about the pass catchers? Despite enthusiasm surrounding the offense in general, the beneficiaries of a supposed top 12 QB are not reaping rewards as it pertains to ADP. This is a gross mistake on the part of preseason drafters. To see this, it is helpful to refer to a chart of WR production in a Kingsbury offense:
Please, blog, may I have some more?With so many great offenses in the NFL, we want as many pieces of the offensive pies as we can get. However, most of the top talent on each of the top offenses carry expensive ADP price tags with them, and are some of the most popular players in fantasy (thanks captain obvious). However, there are some instances across the NFL where we can get WR2 and 3’s on the top offenses for a fraction of the price of their counterparts, but still have some serious upside. Some of these options may even finish in the Top 20, giving us great return on a cheap price tag.
Please, blog, may I have some more?We are three days into #SFB9 and my 1.06 pick of James Conner is highlighted as a ‘notable’ pick in the first round. Sign me up for a bell cow back that is projected to receive over 70% of the teams rushing attempts (RB3). He was RB6 in first downs last season, even after missing the last three games of the season, and had 9 games over 50 yards out of his 12 games played. No back with that high of their teams rushing % would be there for me at 2.07. Who did you take with your number 1 pick? What was the craziest 1st round pick in your #SFB9 division?
Please, blog, may I have some more?With everything we know about valuing players in fantasy football the following series of statements does not make any sense. Corey Davis is drafted as PPR WR27 in 2018 (Per Fantasy Football Calculator). Corey Davis finishes the 2018 season as PPR WR28. Corey Davis turns 24 years old. Corey Davis is drafted at WR38 for the 2019 season (Per Fantasy Football Calculator).
Obviously, there are more factors that go into a successful or failed season than what is highlighted in such a simplistic form. Here are some quick hits that will help dig into this claim a little deeper:
Please, blog, may I have some more?When trying to determine which offenses to buy into this season for fantasy, it’s important to take a look back how offenses finished in three categories in 2018: Offensive Pace, Rushing Rate, and Passing Rate.
These stats help us get a general sense of which offenses were run-heavy and which were pass-heavy, and which offenses operated at a fast or slow pace of production. If a certain offense prioritizes the run, and works at a slower pace, it shouldn’t necessarily mean that we should avoid all of their receivers or QB, it’s just good to know that the offensive design would typically favor their running backs instead, and vice versa.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to look slightly different in 2019. Not at all because of the uniforms because those will look the same. I’m really digging the yellow writing on top of the black jersey that they have been rocking recently. I hope they drop the bumblebee uniforms that they wear every now and then. There’s nothing worse than Ben Roethlisberger looking like he is about to “pollinate”. Plus, black is a slimming color and Ben Roethlisberger could use that advantage for his appearance.
Please, blog, may I have some more?