2019 Football Draft Kit

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The best blend of accurate and bold weekly projections for QB/RB/WR/TE + PK + Defensive Teams and IDP as well as a kick-ass DFS lineup optimizer and projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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It was an ugly end to an ugly game. The talk of the town this morning is how long Myles Garrett should be suspended by the NFL. Baker even brought up a suspension in the post game interview. Striking Mason Rudolph with his own helmet is one of the most malicious acts that we’ve seen on the field in a very long time. If there is even a little bit of humor in what occurred; trust me there isn’t much, it was Mason Rudolph throwing his hands up to the ref IMMEDIATELY after the helmet hits him.

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One of the struggles with using data in the NFL is that there are so few trials in order to get a good perception of what a team or player truly is. In the early portion of the season you must sort through the information that you have and constantly cross check to ensure that there isn’t any noise (schedule, injury, etc) in the data that you are attempting to use. Therefore, I’ve always enjoyed the back half of the season. There are more pieces to put together to tell a story of what is going to happen on a Sunday slate. I’ve nailed down some edges below that I’m hoping you can use to propel you into the season long playoffs, or get to the top of the DFS leaderboard.

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2019 Accuracy Rank QB RB WR TE K DST
Week 9 39 16 127 45 19 47 51
Week 8 115 128 115 100 18 24 14
Week 7 104 25 66 129 113 28 26
Week 6 81 74 118 28 76 76 37
Week 5 58 68 8 113 41 10 39
Week 4 83 37 64 90 120 77 80
Week 3 89 86 117 32 106 27 13
Week 2 2 17 9 26 39 69 35
Week 1 47 81 31 49 76 26 24
Cumulative 55 37 69 67 72 32 13

What are you ranking? Everything! You get a ranking, you get a ranking, everybody gets a ranking! You’ll find my Standard, Half-PPR, and PPR rankings below.

What are my rankings bona fidas? Well, there’s finishing in the FantasyPros Top-10 Draft Accuracy (7th Place) in 2017, Top-25 Weekly Accuracy (23rd Place) in 2017, Top-5 Draft Accuracy (3rd place) in 2016, Top-10 Weekly Accuracy (10th Place) in 2016, Top-25 Weekly Accuracy in 2015 (21st Place) and on average we’ve finished in the Top-10 Draft Accuracy (9th Overall) and the Top-20 Weekly Accuracy (18th Overall) for the past four years and finished 30th overall for our Draft Rankings with a 32nd overall finish in Weekly just last season. And this is out of over 100+ industry sites and experts year-after-year. I’d like to think we’re pretty good at this stuff…

What does the word bona fidas mean? According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, bo·na fi·des ˌbō-nə-ˈfī-ˌdēz , ÷ˈbō-nə-ˌfīdz means 1 : good faith : sincerity, 2 : the fact of being genuine —often plural in construction, 3 : evidence of one’s good faith or genuineness —often plural in construction, 4 : evidence of one’s qualifications or achievements —often plural in construction. On a separate note, I think it would make a great name for a cat.

What’s my ranking process? I’ve actually written about this in the past, and instead of working hard for new and enlightening content, I have chosen the more efficient (lazy, ahem) method and dropping in a link to that post here. Honestly, my process hasn’t changed much at all (the ole “don’t fix what ain’t broke” proverb comes to mind) and so my “A Day in the Life of a Fantasy Football Ranker” story still remains relevant to this day. (The TL;DR is: I’m lazy as fudge. Well, I mean the other “f” word, but I’m hungry.)

How should I use your rankings? The same way your mother does. Which actually makes no sense. (Unless your mother is in the running to always finish top-3 in your Fantasy Football league. And if that’s the case, say hello to her for me.)

 

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It seems like everyone in the NFL nowadays are listed on their team’s injury reports as “Questionable”, which either means that everyone in the NFL is truly questionable at any given moment in time… or a lot of this is noise created by the fact that we no longer have the “Probable” tag anymore. I’d bet that most of this falls under the latter, rather than the former.

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This pun works because it is 20 degrees outside in Chicago and Golden Tate is the lede. I will be taking no further questions on the title.

Tate was a dead man walking in 2018. After multiple 1000+ receiving yard and 90 reception seasons he plummeted to a 74/795 line with a split season for the Lions and Eagles. He followed up that disastrous 30-year-old campaign with a 4-game suspension to start 2019 and was left for dead on draft day. Surprisingly, in 6 games this season he is averaging 8.3 targets and is on a 16-game pace of 88 receptions, 1112 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His numbers have spiked in the two games Evan Engram has missed. Reports state that Evan Engram will be out multiple weeks and the possibility of having his season shut down exists. Sterling Shepherd has a possibility of returning, but I’m unsure if that effects Daniel Jones obvious connection with Tate. The Giants aren’t going to stop losing games any time soon. Daniel Jones won’t stop pushing the ball into the seams any time soon. Jones is on an impressive 30 touchdown, 16 game pace himself. Tate is an outstanding WR3 moving forward with week to week upside based on touchdowns.

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Rudy Gamble joins the Razzball Fantasy Football Podcast once again this week to discuss his potential ’80s comedy career and his rest of season projections. Rudy discusses some challenges he faces projecting for the remainder of the season and some recent tweaks he has made to his rest of season projections formula.

The chat about valuing D.J. Chark, D.J. Moore, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, David Johnson and Kenyan Drake for the remainder of the season. Rudy also discusses the RazzBowl playoffs where he and Donkey Teeth are duking it in the RazzBowl Wildcard Bracket, while facing some major bye week challenges. Catch all of this and much more on this week’s special guest episode of the Razzball Fantasy Football Podcast!
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