Actual transcript from Razzball Twitter Chat:
CoolwhipRB: “Dameon Pierce! [eyes emoji] Free title: Pierce the Veil!”
EverywhereBlair: “But I don’t listen to metalcore, I’m more a progressive djent guy. Can I name it Pier-riphery? Also, now I have to write about Dameon Pierce.”
If you’ve been around fantasy football a while, you know there are weeks like these where all the projections fail and the contrarians run amok. Did you have Geno Smith vs the Lions backups going for nearly 100 overall points? Leading rusher Rashaad Penny — who out-rushed Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor combined? 60-yard field goals (and nearly 2 of them in the same game!)? Something called Bailey Zappe helming the esteemed New England Patriots? It’s OK, these weeks happen. Sometimes there’s a crack in the world that you can peer through to see what it really is — backups all the way down.
If you’re ready for Monday mayhem with the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, or you just hate me as a writer and want to listen to some Jersey accents cover the games check out the Fantasy Besties as they recap Week 4 and get you set for ready for Monday Night Football? Razzball YouTube, Monday Night, 7:15 PM Eastern.
| Name | Fun Stat | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 Rec, 179 yards 2 TDs | Who needs Amon-Ra now? |
| Miles Sanders | 27 attempts, 134 yards, 2 TDs | More touchdowns today than in his previous 20 games combined. |
| Rashaad Penny | 17 attempts, 151 yards, 2 TD | More yards than his previous 3 games combined. |
| D.K. Metcalf | 7 receptions on 10 targets, 149 yards | On like Donkey Kong |
| Kenny Pickett | 120 passing yards, 3 INT, 2 rush TD | Adios, Mitch! |
| Saquon Barkley | 146 yards rushing | Wildcat QB after NYG QBs injured. |
| Travis Etienne | 32 yards rushing | Nightmares come true |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 6 rec on 6 targets, 85 yards, 2 TDs | Flavor of the week? |
| Josh Reynolds | 7 rec on 8 targets, 81 yards, 1 TD | Go add him |
| Zach Wilson | 1 receiving touchdown | Call your mom |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 combined touchdowns | There’s the TD variance |
Week 4 News and Notes
Justin Jefferson: Notched 147 yards receiving and added a rushing TD on an end-around after a controversial pass interference call that the TV referee would have preferred to be a “no call.” I mean, I’m happy that my home team Minnesota Vikings managed to land the Over in London, but of course, it came on the back of 5 MN field goals, a 60-yard Will Lutz field goal — and literally inches from a 61-yard field goal — an Alexander Mattison receiving TD, and rushing TDs from Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill. Everybody predicted those stat lines, right? The line on Jefferson was a bit low (84 yards) because most oddsmakers assumed that the Vikings would blow out the Saints, who were missing their starting QB (Jameis Winston), top RB (Alvin Kamara), and top WR (Michael Thomas). Yet, the Replacements Saints stayed in the game and forced the Vikings to the air to play catch up. If there’s one thing Kirk Cousins knows how to do, it’s how to air-out the ball in the 4th quarter. If Cousins could just play in the 4th quarter every week, he’d be your top fantasy QB. Whatever. Vikes eeked out a win and you got a big game from Justin Jefferson — win / win, right?
Dameon Pierce: 131 yards on the ground with a touchdown and 6(!) catches for [checks notes] 8 yards. All right, we’ll work on that second thing. So, 75 of those yards came on one play. If we subtract that big run, Pierce averaged a respectable 4.3 yards per carry. Every week, Pierce is getting better, and he’s seen 44 touches in the past two weeks. That is a lot of workload. This will be the second week in a row that Pierce has finished as a top 10 fantasy RB, which is great because the first two weeks of the year he finished completely off the fantasy radar. So, 50/50 chance — what do we think the trend will be next week? Place your bets wisely!
Geno Smith: Of course the Seahawks knew they had Lamar Jackson 2.0 sitting on their bench the whole time, right? Russell Wilson to the Broncos for show, Geno Smith to the end zone for dough, amirite? For those of you who follow the Razzball Premium Fantasy Football Tools, you probably gasped when you saw Geno Smith ranked as QB9 for the week, ahead of Kyler Murray and Aaron Rogers. Has Rudy lost his mind? Well, the original Rudy dumped his brain contents into the Pigskinonator and now we all have to deal with CyberRudy’s puns 24/7. The horrifying truth is that Rudy’s brain in a vat is really good at picking players. ENYWHEY. The Seahawks/Lions game — which Vegas oddsmakers had at 48 combined points — ended up going 48-45 with over a thousand yards of offense. Hope you had the Jared Goff/T.J. Hockenson/Josh Reynolds stack! ENYWHEY, part 2 — this is a blurb about Geno. 320 yards passing, 2 TDs, and 49 yards on the ground with another score. Over his past two games? Over 600 yards passing and 5 total TDs. So, here’s what you’re doing Monday night (after watching the Fantasy Besties, of course) — you’re getting a tub of ice cream — get the good stuff! — then you’re coming home and stuffing yourself while watching Hocus Pocus 2. You choose what you stuff yourself with — hopefully, it’s ice cream, but I won’t judge. When 3 AM comes around, you’re whipping out your ouija board, communing with the ancestors, and hoping to add Geno Smith to your team. Make sure to clean up after yourself, or the ancestors might get worried about how you’re spending your free time. Monday morning edit: Geno Smith was the QB for the DraftKings Milly Maker. The year is 2022 and Geno Smith made somebody a millionaire. [sigh]
Jonathan Taylor: When I said this week was the darkest timeline week, I didn’t want it to happen like this. Like, couldn’t we have the Nickelodeon slime cannons be real, or Chris Colinsworth become the commentator for every game, or…well, we got this. JT suffered a high ankle sprain. You saw what Mac Jones did last week? JT probably took it a bit more in stride in week 4. High ankle sprains are nasty things, and although there’s a lot of coach speak about “he’ll be ready soon,” we gotta temper expectations. So what do we do now…Nyheim Hines? What RBs are left on the waiver wire? Fingers crossed that JT comes back quickly.
Kenny Pickett: Speaking of new QBs, everybody’s favorite fantasy last-rounder Kenny Pickett debuted this week when he replaced veteran tablet-holder Mitch Trubisky. As young QBs are wont to do, Pickett chucked nearly as many passes to the other team as he did his own, while running for a couple of TDs as well. Conceptually the Steelers offense is something to get excited about, but the Trubisky/Pickett dance could be a fantasy nightmare for a few weeks. It’s better to avoid Pickett unless you’re in something like the RazzBowl and need to secure a QB who could help you 10 weeks from now. Speaking of the RazzBowl, my team is held together by tape and glue — so many injuries, so much EWB crying. On the plus side for fantasy managers, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth saw a total of 17 targets, so there are some waiver wire streamer considerations for week 5.
James Robinson: So, uh, what happened? I scrolled the injury news. Nothing. I scrolled the game recaps. Nothing. I asked the ancestors. They told me to stop wasting my life playing Octopath Traveler. Screw you ancestors, I need to save the world somehow! Well, the day we knew was coming…came. Has come? Let’s rephrase that. Arrived. For the first few weeks of fantasy football 2022, I spilled megabytes of bandwidth on how the Jags tried to get rid of James Robinson, only to somehow unleash him in 2022. Somewhere in those 18,000 words, I wondered if James Robinson’s early season usage was just to help Travis Etienne acclimate to the NFL. I…might have been right? In week 4, Robinson and Etienne split carries, with neither of them being particularly fantasy relevant. However, we’re more concerned with the J-Rob downplay and the Etienne workload — will this be a committee backfield? Did Robinson just need a breather? Is it really supposed to be ETN SZN? Best of luck to fantasy managers going forward because this is the nightmare we wanted to avoid.
J.K. Dobbins: Doubled his usage from last week, which is a good sign. Scored TDs from rushing and receiving, which is a great sign. Averaged 3.2 yards per carry, which is less than optimal. Reminder: he’s had all of 20 carries in the past 2 years, so we’re seeing the gears turning, the dawg waking up, all those metaphors that you see on inspirational posters.
Bailey Zappe: I mean, if you think the Vikings look the fool after eeking out a win vs the Saints, think about the Packers fans who watched Patriots rookie fill-in QB Bailey Zappe take the lead in the third quarter and hold it through the fourth quarter. Mac Jones will likely be out for a while with a severe high ankle sprain, and backup Patriots QB Brian Hoyer left the week 4 game with a head injury. That left 4th round draft pick Bailey Zappe as last QB standing anywhere in the Patriots organization. The Packers were fresh off of getting the Bucs’ jumbotron guy fired and should have waltzed to a win but Zappe kept the game honest. With guys like DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor in FLEX consideration, it seems like Zappe might keep them fantasy relevant while the Patriots heal up.
Javonte Williams: Speaking of nightmare season, Williams left the game on Sunday with a knee injury. Stay tuned to the Fantasy Besties on Monday night to see if our teams are daggered or merely abysmal.
Romeo Doubs: Caught Aaron Rodgers’ 500th career touchdown. Nearly caught his 501st touchdown too, but the field giveth, and the field taketh awayeth. Also, really surprised there’s not a charity with the handle give.eth — seems natural. Y’all can have that one for free.
Russell Wilson: 237 yards in the air, 2 passing TDs, and 29 yards on the ground and a rushing TD while still losing to the Raiders. Great, Russ is sort of cooking again. As much as we want to celebrate a 237 yard passing game, if he did that every week, he’d finish as like QB19. Fingers crossed the Broncos are getting their mise en place in place before cooking for the rest of the season.
D.J. Moore: In Razzchat, Keelin wondered if she should start DJ Moore or find a replacement. The best replacement on the wire was…Quintez Cephus. Rudy had Moore and Cephus ranked neck and neck for Week 4, and he wasn’t that far off. Moore caught 6 passes on 11 targets for a total of 50 yards. On the plus side — he actually got meaningful targets. On the down side: Baker Mayfield averaged less than 9 yards per completion. Imagine having D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey on your team, completing 22 passes, and finishing with less than 200 yards. Moore remains a troubling asset for fantasy managers going forward, at least until Mayfield devotes as much time to his downfield routes as he does his Progressive commercials.
How did Week 4 treat you? Jump down in the comments and let me know the horrors that popped up in your lineup.
Kyler has looked awful this year. Is Geno someone you would play over him for the matchup? Hopkins may improve the ARZ offense in 3 weeks but I’m losing confidence.
Oh dang, asking me to kill my darlings, eh?
Matchup wise, sure — I can go with Geno over Kyler. ROS? I think we’re still too early into the data (I know, 25% of the season is done with!). One of the best predictors for QB success is past success, which Kyler has and Geno obviously doesn’t. Looking at the forward projections, Kyler has a much better trajectory than Geno, but for right now — yeah, I’m happy plugging in Geno in this hot offense and seeing if the sexy can last for more than 2 weeks. Good luck!
Dropped Geno Smith to add Marcus Mariota just before 1 pm. :)
The year is 2022. Hot dog prices are at an all-time high. Mantis just dropped Geno Smith for Marcus Mariota, and it was the wrong decision.
What timeline are we even in?
Clever writing. Totally stealing the “darkness timeline” one liner lol. I still think that Amon-Ra is very relevant even if the “hawk” is grooving.
A lot of good stuff here! Octopath Traveler is an amazing game btw
Oh 100% ARSB is my guy. I even made him the highlight of my injury article last week: https://football.razzball.com/the-amon-break-2022-week-4-fantasy-football-injury-report.
Thanks for the support! No spoilers for 8path for me, I’m still gathering all the gang before we set out to fight evil. :)
If Kamara is back this week. I’m going to have to drop one of either Mostert, Allen Robinson , Curtis Samuel, olave , pollard Or Jeff Wilson Jr. to activate him
So tough! I think we see what A-Rob does tonight before taking action. He was trending in the “right” direction, although he’s still been really bad for fantasy. If ARob gets ignored tonight or puts up another dud, I think we have enough data to turn him into a streamer at this point.
Hay man…good stuff as always!
So among my many questions, this one may be leaving me most clueless…I have the Gibson active – Robinson stashed combo on two of my teams. When Robinson is activated in real football, is the fantasy move just to drop Gibson and activate Robinson and get it over with? It sure seems like it, but boy, could that blow up in your face. Hmmmm…thoughts?
Hey Bob, thanks for the support! Yeah, going the BRob route would be pretty risky, but people way smarter than me are indicating that going the BRob route the proper move.
Personally, abandoning Gibson — a top 15 RB last year — to the waiver wire for a guy who has never played an NFL snap and is less than 8 weeks out of being shot twice, feels beyond my risk profile. But, you may have a different risk profile, or perhaps need to take a bold strategy, in which case, go for it :)
‘
Good Morning, Blair
I am in need of a QB. I just received a trade proposal whereby I get Kyler Murray and Zeke Elliott for my Pittman. Being no fan of Elliott, I was about to reject the offer until I checked Rudy’s rankings. He has Elliott as the #1 rated RB ROS & Barkley way down on the list. Two questions : 1) Is there a problem with Rudy’s model this morning? 2) What do you think of the trade proposal? How about with Sanders instead of Elliott?
Yeah, definitely something amiss with the Rudyotron today — I pinged him and let him know. It usually does the full update on Wednesday because the data streams are still outputting today. Rudy tends to run football models once all the data is in.
Yeah, as wonky as Sanders has been, he’s clearly on a positive trend and Zeke is straight meh. I think if you get Sanders and Kyler, you do the trade — Kyler has had slow periods before and exploded over half to three-quarter season trends. Especially if you can get an RB as well, that’s a positive value trade for you. If Sanders is a non-mover, I probably stream QBs — Zeke’s trajectory is less than optimal right now.
Always a great read! I have a few questions coming out of this week:
In a 0.5 PPR league, would you drop Julio for any of these available receivers – Rondale Moore, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pickens or Woods?
Would you prefer Brian Robinson over Ken Walker as a bench RB? 0.5 PPR if it matters.
Would you drop Mariota for Pickett?
Regarding the QB question, I should have also added Geno to the mix if you prefer him over Mariota and Pickett.
Oh heck, we gotta ride the Geno train while it’s hot. Mariota will always be a streamer. Pickett will have — statistically speaking — more down weeks than up weeks. Grab Geno and see if he’s real.
BRob for bench.
I think Pickens has the highest ceiling of the year and I’d prefer him to Julio, although there’ll be high variance weeks. Rondale Moore is statistically better than Julio, but Moore is still ramping up and Kyler apparently needs to do more video study.
Hope that helps!
Very helpful thanks!
12 teamer, h2h, 1-3 start after winning it last year. So lotsa work to do.
I Just traded away Najee and Khalial for Kupp. This leaves me with the squad below and a backfill selection from the WW:
Brady
Saquon, Zeke (or Dillon)
Kupp, Cooks
Flex: Godwin
Pitts (ugh)
Bench: Dillon, Doubs, Gage,Schultz, Noah Brown
IR-Jameson Williams
WW: MVS, Algeier, Boone, Latavius, Pickens, Rondale, Mattison
1. Who would your top selection off the wire given the team?
2. I figure Gage is a drop now. Replacement?
3. Is there a sleeper RB you would stash for down the road or ??
4. Thoughts on Kupp trade?
Hey DD!
Team is statistically sound, so don’t get too dramatic with the overhaul. I’d put #1 and #2 together under the “stay flexible” mantra. The bench you can always stream and Gage will be high variance given his team — rather than suggest a specific target, I’d remain flexible there and swap out whoever seems to have a high target chance that week (like, Josh Reynolds last week when ARSB and Chark missed the game).
As for RBs, the batch of RBs that tend to come out mid-season are often plug-and-plays, like Elijah Mitchell or Khalil Herbert and so on. Last year, Mitchell and Herbert took massive carries when they were on and then disappeared when they were off. So, again stay flexible — James Cook, Tyler Allgeier, even guys like Darrell Henderson.
Kupp trade is fine — always happy to get a top receiver. Najee could get 300 dump passes this year the way the QB situation is looking in PIT, but most people would prefer the Kupp side of the trade here. Good luck!
the exact second mayfield loses his job (which’ll be the 2nd time in a few months really) while d.jones still has his some reporter needs to document and quote him back on him making fun of NYG for trading up to draft d.jones at around 10th overall or so the year after mayfield went 1.1.
2 years ago, back when I still posted these articles on Reddit, there was a swarm of Baker lovers who came to his defense.
Mayfield hasn’t even cracked Superflex starter in the meantime lol
PPR for ROS not this week. Alec Pierce, Sky Moore or Jameson Williams?
Tough one! Rudy’s projections LOOOVE Jameson Williams, and between the resurgence of Goff and the Lions needing a legit #2 that isn’t named Josh Reynolds, JW would have my vote for highest per game ceiling overall. Pierce probably has the best median projection and is safer — literally no #2 in Indy, available right now, JT injured. Can’t go wrong starting with Pierce, but if he’s boring when JW comes back, jump ship for JW.
I have some tough decisions because I have alot of players similar in value . I’m 0-4 . Standard league with a 10 point bonus added if a player reaches 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards
Wr 1 – Aj Brown
Wr2-
Rb1- Kamara if active
Rb 2 –
Te-andrews
W/R-
W/R/T-
I have Najee Harris , Jeff Wilson, Olave, Godwin , jk Dobbins , Aj Dillon , Curtis Samuel , Gabe Davis , A-Rob , Tony Pollard , and Mostert to choose From
Hey Russ!
I think Dobbins will probably see “normal” volume this week, so we’ll treat him as RB2. Wilson should start in W/R. Dillon or Harris should be your W/R/T.
WR 2 is probably a toss up between Samuel or Davis.
Those are the “odds” favorites — hope we can turn this around!