There is one more week of the regular to put in the books before the playoffs begin for most of our leagues but I’m here to tell you, “IT’S NEVER TOO EARLY TO PREPARE FOR THE PLAYOFFS!” As I’m sure most of you know, anything can happen in the playoffs. Have you experienced the craziness too?
Here’s one of mine: A few years back, I had by far the highest scoring team and #1 seed in a head-to-head league. First round bye. In the semi-finals, I’m facing a kicker on Monday Night Football starting with about a 12-point lead. Late in the third quarter, he kicks a 50+ yard FG and now I’m down about 0.86 points. I’m toast. Not so fast, my friend. Mid-fourth quarter, the kicker lines up for a relative chip shot and…DOINK! Back in business…ahead again by a measly 0.14 and must sweat it out the rest of the way. An extra point will do me in. No more FG chances and I move on. What a roller coaster ride!
So, the moral of the story, don’t leave it to chance. There’s plenty out there we CAN’T control but there’s also plenty we CAN control. Do your work as early as possible and be ready. Let the others dangle in the wind next week.
Here are some of my early STARTS, SITS, and STREAMERS for Week 15 (and beyond).
I will be using our free tools at Razzball to help you out here. By now, you should be a seasoned user of these fabulous tools but if you need a refresher, you can review one of my previous articles HERE that’ll answer your questions. Also, I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool
- Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
STARTS
- Player: Baker Mayfield
- Games: vs Las Vegas (Wk 15), @ Los Angeles Chargers (Wk 16), @ Dallas (Wk 17)
We all know by now that Baker Mayfield has become part of the fantasy starting QB discussion almost every week. That discussion needs to continue throughout the fantasy playoffs. With matchups against the Raiders (25th vs QB) and Cowboys (28th vs QB) in particular, Mayfield could very well lead your fantasy team to a title. As our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows, there’s really no difference between “home” Mayfield and “road” Mayfield, so he should be equally good in both of those matchups, in particular. Looking at the Week 15 matchup in particular, the Raiders defense allows the 5th highest TD rate for QBs. With a healthy Mike Evans and Cade Otton to target, this looks like a prime
- Player: David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs
- Games: vs Buffalo (Wk 15), @ Chicago (Wk 16), @ San Francisco (Wk 17)
If you’re skeptical to rely on either Lions RB in the fantasy playoffs, I’m here to ease your stress. Both David Montgomery and Jaymyr Gibbs are matchup proof and as we’ve seen over and over this season, both can thrive with the RB timeshare. Quick Quiz: In 13 games this season, how many times has either RB scored less than double-digit fantasy points (PPR)? ZERO! That’s right, both Montgomery and Gibbs have scored 10 or more fantasy points in EVERY GAME. It’s not just running the ball either, both are active in the passing game too. Fun fact (see our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool), here are the defensive ranks for allowing RB targets per game (Buffalo – #1 most, Chicago – 16th, and San Francisco – 18th). Circle that Week 15 matchup vs the Bills!
- Player: Jayden Reed
- Games: @ Seattle (Wk 15), vs New Orleans (Wk 16), @ Minnesota (Wk 17)
As noted in our 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool, the Packers have the 2nd best remaining schedule for slot receivers. That favors Jayden Reed more than any other Green Bay WR (see our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool) as 74% of his fantasy points are scored from the slot position.
- Player: Courtland Sutton
- Games: vs Colts (Wk 15), @ Chargers (Wk 16), @ Bengals (Wk 17)
Courtland Sutton has been on a tear the past month and a half and has become an every-game fantasy starter. If you roster him and he hasn’t been, what the hell are you doing? His lowest yardage total over those six games has been 70 yards (he had a TD that game too). He’s surpassed the century mark three times during that stretch. As noted in our 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool, the Broncos have the 4th best remaining schedule for wideouts. You guessed it, that favors Sutton (see our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool) as 87% of his fantasy points are scored out wide. Coming off their Week 14 bye, the Broncos have a nice schedule, especially in Weeks 15 & 17. Plus, they’re firmly in the AFC playoff race so full speed ahead. Lock him in!
- Player: Cade Otton
- Games: vs Las Vegas (Wk 15), @ Los Angeles Chargers (Wk 16), @ Dallas (Wk 17)
I already mentioned Baker Mayfield as a “START” but I’ll include Cade Otton here as well, at least for Week 15. We saw the stretch in Weeks 7-9 where he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game but has since come back down to Earth. However, he’s still receiving plenty of targets (8 and 7 in two of the past three games). For their part, the Raiders are friendly to TEs, allowing the 4th most TGTs, 2nd most REC, 2nd most YDS, and 3rd most TDs.
SITS
- Player: Brock Purdy
- Games: vs Los Angeles Rams (Wk 15), @ Miami (Wk 16), vs Detroit (Wk 17)
This season is looking more and more like a lost one for Brock Purdy and the 49ers, the latest of which being the loss of both starting RBs. Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Purdy will be facing the Rams in a divisional game (which we know can go any which way), as well as the Dolphins and Lions. In the two latter cases, the Dolphins defense is ranked #1 vs QBs and the Lions defense, despite mounting injuries, is ranked #7. You may want to look another way if Purdy is still your #1 QB.
- Player: Isiah Pacheco
- Games: @ Cleveland (Wk 15), vs Houston (Wk 16), @ Pittsburgh (Wk 17)
If you drafted Pacheco and carried him throughout his 10-week absence, you’ll be eager to get him back into your lineups. Despite the section title, I’m not necessarily telling you to sit him rather just be cautious with your expectations. With road games at Cleveland (6th vs RB) and Pittsburgh (11th vs RB), bookending a home tilt vs Houston (4th vs RB), the fantasy playoffs may be a bumpy ride for his owners. After a 7-44-0 return to the field versus a league-average RB defense in the Raiders, this week’s home tilt versus the Chargers will be telling. Regardless, proceed with caution here.
- Player: DeVonta Smith
- Games: vs Pittsburgh (Wk 15), @ Washington (Wk 16), vs Dallas (Wk 17)
Where have you gone, DeVonta Smith? Smith was drafted as a WR2 but has been relegated to a fringe Flex option now. Limited by injuries, the latest being a 2-game absence due to a hamstring injury, his play has been anything but predictable – he’s now a TD-dependent WR in fantasy. To make matters worse, the Eagles have the worst remaining schedule for slot WRs (see our 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool). Of the two “fantasy-startable” WRs in Phily, that is going to damper Smith more than A.J. Brown. Smith scores about half his fantasy points form the slot (see our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool). So, between injuries, matchups and general lack of predictable production, tread very cautiously here.
- Player: Mark Andrews
- Games: @ New York Giants (Wk 15), vs Pittsburgh (Wk 16), @ Houston (Wk 17)
You may be surprised to see Mark Andrews listed here. If he’s your clear #1 TE, you may want to tamper your expectations. Here’s why: The Giants defense ranks #1 vs TEs and the Texans rank #4 (Pittsburgh is about league average). Those ranks are bolstered by the fact that the Giants are the #1 defense in limiting TE targets (4.0 per game) and the Texans are ranked #6 (5.8 per game) – see our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool. Now is the time to consider some alternatives to give yourself options. Dallas Goedert, Cade Otton, Chig Okonkwo (see below) and Juwan Johnson may all be available in your leagues.
STREAMERS
- Player: Aidan O’Connell
- Games: vs Atlanta (Wk 15), vs Jacksonville (Wk 16), @ New Orleans (Wk 17)
Sure, there’s reason to be concerned about the Raider’s QB play but in his first game back, Aidan O’Connell threw for 340 yards and 2 TDs at KC. Here are the current defensive rankings vs QBs: Falcons (25th), Jaguars (32nd), and Saints (10th). As our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows, O’Connell’s Home/Road Index comes in at 140 – meaning he’s scoring 40% more fantasy points at home. Consider him a streaming option for Week 15 and Week 16, in particular.
- Player: Tony Pollard
- Games: vs Cincinnati (Wk 15), @ Indianapolis (Wk 16), @ Jacksonville (Wk 17)
Tony Pollard has produced an up-and-down fantasy season for his owners. When it’s good, he’s a low-end RB#1. When it’s bad, he’s barely a Flex option. Luckily for us, he’s been good more than bad. What helps him most are the numbers he provides in the passing game, averaging 4-5 TGTs per game. His playoff schedule looks optimistic to us. The three teams rank 15th, 28th, and 31st vs RBs, respectively. In the latter two cases, the Colts and Jaguars defenses allow the 11th-most and 5th-most RB TGTs, respectively (see our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool).
- Player: Jacobi Meyers
- Games: vs Atlanta (Wk 15), vs Jacksonville (Wk 16), @ New Orleans (Wk 17)
As noted in our 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool, the Raiders have the best remaining schedule for wideouts. That makes Jacobi Meyers a streaming option for each of the fantasy playoff weeks. Our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool shows that he’s scoring 62% of his fantasy points out wide. I just discussed how I think Aidan O’Connell is a QB streaming option so why do I also like Meyers here? In his first game back, O’Connell’s 340 yards and 2 TDs at KC translated to 6 REC for 97 YDS for Meyers. If both can remain healthy, both could be an under-the-radar league winners!
- Player: Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Games: vs Cincinnati (Wk 15), @ Indianapolis (Wk 16), @ Jacksonville (Wk 17)
Chig Okonkwo has been off the fantasy radar for most of the season. However, he’s recently started making his way up the fantasy TE board. Following a TD vs one of the top TE defenses (HOU) in Week 12 and six TGTs last week at Washington, he may be one to stash on your roster and plug in as needed. None of his fantasy playoff matchups have defenses ranked better than 26th vs TEs in fantasy scoring. Also, our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool shows these three defenses as ranking 6th, 7th, and 20th, respectively, in allowing TE targets. Use with caution of course, but he should provide a nice option in case you have to divert at the TE position.
That’s All Folks
Best of luck this week and more importantly, in the upcoming playoffs. The Razzball crew and I will be here the whole way to help you win that coveted Championship. The best advice I can give you now is to look at your roster and have a plan. I didn’t cover playoff K or DSTs here but use all the tools available the same way. Better yet, join the Razzball boys each week for our live Sunday show. We can help you in real time there! Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
One last piece of business…a reminder that all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X: @Derek_Favret and BlueSky: @dfavret.bsky.social.
Until next time, my friends!
