PPRA Regression Candidates
Before you go any further if you haven’t read the article on the Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis, we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here: PPRA Regression Candidates. In this article, we break down, the PPRA outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy or fade in 2021 fantasy drafts.
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2021 PPRA Positive Regression Candidates
Player: Ezekiel Elliott
2020 PPRA: .55
Career avg. PPRA: .64
PPRA Variance: -14%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 13.7 | 15.2 |
Ezekiel Elliott has a lot going for him in 2021. Three of his five offensive line starters are set to return after missing significant time in 2020. Also, the return of his QB Dak Prescott should help Zeke bounce back to his career .64 PPRA. If we apply his .64 PPRA to his attempts from 2020 he would have finished with 228 total points which would have been the RB7 in fantasy last season.
Another key factor why Zeke should be viewed as a top-five back was his career-low 16.3 carries per game last season. This is roughly four carries less than his career average of 20.2. If Zeke gets closer to his career norm in carries and PPRA his PPG would jump to 20. That would put Zeke just behind Derrick Henry at RB5 last season.
Player: Austin Ekeler
2020 PPRA: .51
Career avg. PPRA: .64
PPRA Variance: -20%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 15.2* | 16.8 |
*9 Full Games in 2020
On the surface, Austin Ekeler’s season doesn’t look that impressive as his 13.8 PPG was only tied for 15th. However, when you dive into his game logs, Ekeler left one game early. In that game, he only played 6% of snaps and had two carries. Once you take that one game out, Ekeler’s PPG jumps to 15.2. That updated PPG ties Ekeler with Joe Mixon as a top 10 RB in 2020. This came even with Ekeler producing 25% under his career PPRA.
Like Zeke Elliott, Ekeler will be running behind an upgraded offensive line. That line now includes #1 PFF center in run blocking Corey Linsley, veteran guards Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi, and 1st round pick Rashawn Slater. If we apply his career PPRA to his carries last season his PPG jumps to 16.8. That updated PPG would have tied him with Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb as the RB5 in 2020.
Player: Chase Edmonds
2020 PPRA: .52
Career avg. PPRA: .66
PPRA Variance: -21%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 8.8 | 9.6 |
Chase Edmonds shouldn’t be expected to be a workhorse in 2021 with James Conner on board. However, if he gets back to his career .66 PPRA then he should be able to return some value at his current RB28 price tag. Once we apply his career PPRA to his uptick in carries from 2020 his PPG jumps to 9.6. Granted 9.6 PPG won’t make Edmonds into a fantasy dynamo, but that slight bump would give him 153.6 total points. That would have put Edmonds just ahead of J.D. McKissic as the RB24 in 2020.
The real question comes, can Edmonds make the jump from fringe RB2 to legit top 20 back. Â In 2020 Edmonds saw a career-high 97 carries it still only ranked 48th. It will be important to monitor camp reports to see if Edmonds is going to get more work as a rusher. If Edmonds can get closer to 125 carries with his career PPRA then his projected points would jump to 10.8 PPG or 172.9 points. That would have been good for the RB17 in 2020.
Player: Raheem Mostert
2020 PPRA: .62
Career avg. PPRA: .82
PPRA Variance: -24%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 11.7 | 14.3 |
Raheem Mostert is an absolute conundrum when it comes to the PPRA analysis. Mostert is only one of six running backs with a career .80 or higher PPRA (league average is .58). Before last season Mostert was coming off back-to-back seasons of .91 and .94 PPRA. We should point out that not a lot of running backs can keep up this level of efficiency. This makes you wonder if Mostert’s 2020 PPRA .62 is closer to his new norm.
It’s important to remember that .62 is still above league average and allowed Mostert to post a solid 11.7 PPG. The 11.7 PPG made him the RB 28 in 2020. Currently being drafted at RB34, Mostert can be on the flex radar even on a reduced workload if he returns to his career norm in PPRA.
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2021 PPRA Negative Regression Candidates
Quick Slants
Player: Leonard Fournette
2020 PPRA: .75
Career avg. PPRA: .60
PPRA Variance: 25%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 8.8 | 7.7 |
From week 14 through the playoffs Leonard Fournette averaged 16.5 PPG. However, three games came without Ronald Jones. Finally, with Gio Bernard now in the fold, Fournette could be losing most of his pass game work making him a risky pick even at RB35.
Player: Christian McCaffrey
2020 PPRA: .89
Career avg. PPRA: .79
PPRA Variance: 13%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 27.3 | 25.3 |
Yes, CMC is a regression candidate, but he’s still the 1.01. Let’s leave it at that.Â
Player: Alvin Kamara
2020 PPRA: 1.01
Career avg. PPRA: .85
PPRA Variance: 19%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 22.4 | 20.4 |
PPRA giveth and PPRA taketh it away. Alvin Kamara was our example of a 2020 bounce back. His 1.01 PPRA in 2020 is sure to regress. This coupled with the change at QB makes Kamara a risk at his top three ADP.
Player: Nick Chubb
2020 PPRA: .94
Career avg. PPRA: .79
PPRA Variance: 19%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 16.8 | 14.4 |
Nick Chubb exploded in his first year with Kevin Stefanski and it showed in his ridiculous .94 PPRA. The 16.8 PPG is deceiving as Chubb averaged 18.7 PPG in his 11 full games he played. If we apply his updated PPRA to the 18.7 PPG his projected PPG would be 16.3. That would have been good for the RB6 in 2020.
Player: Dalvin Cook
2020 PPRA: .81
Career avg. PPRA: .69
PPRA Variance: 17%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 16.8 | 14.4 |
Dalvin Cook is another example of a perfect storm. His career-high 312 carries came in the same season he generated a career-high .81 points per rush attempt. The 19.9 points are on the low side as Cook did generate .77 points per rush attempt in 2019. Overall, he’s still the 2nd best pick in single QB leagues. Â
Player: Gus Edwards
2020 PPRA: .75
Career avg. PPRA: .66
PPRA Variance: 14%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 7.9 | 7.1 |
In 2020 there were 6 games where Mark Ingram didn’t play or was a non-factor. In those contests, Gus Edwards averaged 10.9 PPG in .5 PPR. If we apply his career PPRA to 10.9 PPG, his new PPG would be 10.1 PPG. That would have been good for RB31 in 2020 that is 12 spots higher than his 2021 RB43 ADP.
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