Post-hype sleepers are a fun way of saying “players I’ve dug my heels into”, or as the internet likes to say so succinctly, “takelock”. Nevertheless, talent is talent, and a down year is often just a buying opportunity for those good enough to overcome them.
Overreaction is valid in fantasy football. When a WR/TE doesn’t earn targets, an RB doesn’t earn snaps, or a QB looks horrendous, we can safely judge them for surface-level problems. However, when a player with a history of production and good underlying metrics has a down year, we can be more forgiving. Injuries are also within the sphere of forgiveness. Young players who may have been poised for a breakout season are victims of injuries every season. This does not mean they were overrated, rather, a victim of bad luck.
Here, I identify the players who caught bad breaks last year and could return profits at their average draft positions.
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Post-Hype Fantasy Football Targets
QB Jordan Love (GB)
The Packers’ franchise QB disappointed fantasy managers last season. Love finished as QB13 in points per game in 2024 after finishing as QB5 in 2023. This likely resulted from a knee injury Love suffered in Week 1 against the Eagles. Love’s rushing ability was stymied all season. He averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt with one touchdown–a far cry from his 4.9 yards per attempt (on twice as many carries) and four touchdowns in 2023.
However, Love managed to increase his TD rate (5.9%) and yards per attempt (8.0) in 2024 after posting quality numbers in 2023. The offense lost explosive WR Christian Watson, but added first-round WR Matthew Golden, who projects as the team’s de facto WR1. Golden can help open up the offense for playmakers like Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft.
Love is entering the 2025 season with a healthy lower body (as far as we know). Yes, his left thumb required surgery, but luckily, he is a lefty. With a quality offensive line in front of him, a high-end rushing attack, and a plethora of weapons to target, Love should be closer to 2023 form in fantasy football, if not better.
RB Breece Hall (NYJ)
The Braelon Allen hype train has gone too far. We, as a community, are forgetting the talents of Breece Hall. Hall took the league by storm as a rookie in 2022 with 681 yards and five TDs in seven games before tearing his ACL. He returned in 2023 with (expected) worse efficiency, but played 17 games and amassed 1585 yards and nine TDs playing next to Zach Wilson.
Last season was forgettable, especially for those who drafted Hall in the top two rounds. However, he still had a fine season! Hall posted 1359 yards and eight TDs in 16 games with immobile Aaron Rodgers at QB. This season could be Hall’s best yet with a mobile QB like Justin Fields under center. The Jets fortified their offensive line with RT Armand Membou in the top-10 of the 2025 draft and have the rest of the room healthy (for once).
Many in the fantasy sphere are claiming that Braelon Allen will eat into Hall’s workload, but that is unlikely to be the case to a greater degree than in 2024. Allen had 111 touches last year, yet produced the worst efficiency in the backfield with 482 yards, three TDs, and 4.3 yards per touch. Hall was less efficient than in recent seasons, but still posted a quality 5.1 yards per touch. Allen is a limited RB due to his lack of speed and cannot usurp or even hinder Hall without an injury to the veteran.
Within the confines of the Jets’ offense, Hall could be the leading rusher and second-most targeted receiver. In a contract year this season, Hall could even get traded! The Jets are not contending this season as they reconfigure their identity, and many teams around the league have barren RB rooms or possess fragile starters. A move to the Chiefs, Commanders, Bears, Cowboys, etc., allots Hall an extra “out” to hit his maximum upside.
RB Jaylen Warren (PIT)
The Steelers’ RB room is a mixed bag. Jaylen Warren is the only holdover from last season, while Kaleb Johnson was drafted in the third round and Kenneth Gainwell was signed in free agency. Warren is likely to start the season as the lead back and could retain that role if Johnson does not challenge him (Gainwell is only there for third down and two-minute drill snaps).
Many expect Johnson to fill in for Najee Harris as the lead back, but his youth could be an issue. Johnson’s a talented rusher, but likely stuck as a two-down back. With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the veteran savvy of Warren and Gainwell could be preferred to keep Rodgers upright. Johnson is still developing, and questions remain regarding his ability in pass protection.
Jaylen Warren has never had a “breakout” fantasy season, yet many expected one in 2024 due to Najee Harris’s downward trend and Warren’s incredible efficiency through two seasons (5.5 yards per touch). Unfortunately, Warren injured his hamstring two weeks before the regular season, then strained his knee in Week 3. These injuries compounded while Najee Harris played his fourth-straight 17-game season.
Warren could carve out a massive role as the starting RB this season, and if he stays healthy, there is plenty of upside behind a young, improving offensive line and with a QB who needs to check down.
WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Everything went wrong for the Dolphins last season. The defense was in shambles, the offensive line was in shambles, and QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered more head trauma. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle suffered poor season-long stat lines as a result of these issues. When Tagovailoa returned midseason from a month-long absence, he was forced to play through TE Jonnu Smith and RB De’Von Achane. The top pass-catching duo of Hill and Waddle was relegated to clear-out duties while the underneath options ate up yardage after the catch.
With Tagovailoa’s injuries and a poor offensive line, Miami was reduced to a quick-game heavy offense to protect their QB from more hits. This resulted in Jaylen Waddle’s worst season yet. From 2021 to 2023, Waddle averaged 7.7 targets per game and 72 yards per game. He experienced a career-low 5.5 targets per game and produced another career-low 49.6 yards per game.
With Jonnu Smith traded to Pittsburgh, the offensive line improved, and a healthy Tagovailoa, we should expect a bounce-back season for Waddle in 2025. WR1 Tyreek Hill is currently sitting out of practice due to an oblique issue and has missed most of the offseason while recovering from wrist surgery. Also, Hill is unhappy in Miami and could be traded before the deadline. This would open the door for a potentially monstrous fantasy season from Waddle beyond just a bounce-back year.
WR Chris Olave (NO)
Does Chris Olave have a concerning history of concussions? Yes. Is Chris Olave healthy right now and one of the league’s more talented WRs in an offense that will be throwing more often this season? Also, yes.
Olave may not be as efficient without Derek Carr under center, but the Saints are a dumpster fire. Their QB1 battle is between a 2025 second-round pick who turns 26 in September and Spencer Rattler. Neither option is enticing, but Tyler Shough could be interesting for fantasy production on a team with possibly the league’s worst defense. Long story short…the Saints will have to throw the football a lot this season.
Through his first two NFL seasons, Olave played 31 of 34 games. He averaged 8.3 targets per game and 69.8 yards per game. He is a great WR and available several rounds lower than recent seasons when he was a top-30 pick! If Olave gets hurt again, you can drop him and move on. If he stays healthy, there is a lot of upside in this Saints offense that will likely have more passing volume and more snaps for Olave out of the slot to create easier opportunities for him.
TE Mark Andrews (BAL)
This one feels like cheating because Mark Andrews has multiple top fantasy finishes at the TE position. However, there is next to no hype for a TE with this history, and an injury to the TE2, who was a thorn in his side last year. Isaiah Likely suffered a broken foot in camp and is potentially going to miss the first few weeks of the regular season. If this is the case, it will take time for Likely to ramp back up to his 2024 self, and honestly, that may not happen until 2026. Foot injuries are bad and annoying.
Speaking of bad and annoying, car crashes are also unpleasant! Mark Andrews was notably involved in one last preseason, and it resulted in a year with his fewest targets per game since 2018 (his rookie year). Andrews is reportedly at full strength entering the season and should remain a staple in one of the league’s best offenses. He scored a career-high 11 touchdowns in a down 2025 season. This is a special player who is one season removed from a tied finish for TE4.
For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
